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Scans for divergence, chec...\n\nTags: latest:2.0.6\n\nVersion history:\n\nv2.0.6 | 2026-02-27T10:04:37.029Z | auto\n\n- Added \"difficulty: intermediate\" to the SKILL.md metadata.\n- No core logic or functionality changes; documentation update only.\n\nv2.0.5 | 2026-02-27T05:51:27.079Z | auto\n\nNo changes detected in this version (2.0.5).  \n- No file changes or feature updates were made.\n- All functionality and documentation remain the same as the previous version.\n\nv2.0.4 | 2026-02-27T05:50:00.952Z | auto\n\n- Updated internal logic in `ai_divergence.py`.\n- No changes to user-facing documentation or configuration.\n- No API changes or new features introduced in this version.\n\nv2.0.3 | 2026-02-27T03:55:16.259Z | user\n\nAdd is_live_now field to Market dataclass; forward-compatible filter to skip not-yet-open markets\n\nv2.0.2 | 2026-02-25T13:56:36.305Z | auto\n\nNo file changes were detected in this version.\n\n- Version bump to 2.0.2 with no code or documentation changes.  \n- No user-facing functionality added, removed, or altered.\n\nv2.0.1 | 2026-02-25T13:46:20.665Z | auto\n\n- Updated SKILL.md to clarify that Simmer's AI consensus price is derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting.\n- No changes to core logic or functionality—documentation update only.\n\nv1.0.6 | 2026-02-24T12:31:30.238Z | auto\n\nVersion 2.0.0 introduces live trading with Kelly sizing and robust safeguards.\n\n- Adds automated trading: executes trades on zero-fee markets with AI vs market price divergence above 2%.\n- Implements Kelly criterion for position sizing, capped at 25% to limit risk.\n- Filters only to zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag.\n- Introduces safeguards: flip-flop detection, existing position checks, daily budget limits.\n- CLI now supports live mode, config inspection/updates, and more granular trade controls.\n\nv1.0.5 | 2026-02-20T07:26:01.390Z | user\n\nFilter noise: use /opportunities endpoint to exclude tracking-only markets where divergence is LMSR drift\n\nv1.0.4 | 2026-02-17T04:04:02.397Z | auto\n\n- Added simmer-sdk as a required pip dependency in metadata for easier setup.\n- Clarified that this skill is a template for customization and extension.\n- Removed the SIMMER_API_URL config from documentation; only SIMMER_API_KEY is now required.\n- Incremented version to 1.0.4 for these dependency and documentation improvements.\n\nv1.0.3 | 2026-02-14T14:59:03.600Z | auto\n\nPolymarket AI Divergence 1.0.3\n\n- Added SKILL.md documentation: comprehensive usage guide, configuration, API details, and example commands.\n- Clarifies how to interpret divergence signals between Simmer's AI and Polymarket prices.\n- Lists quick command-line options for scanning and filtering trading opportunities.\n- Includes troubleshooting tips for common setup issues.\n\nArchive index:\n\nArchive v2.0.6: 4 files, 9945 bytes\n\nFiles: ai_divergence.py (20687b), scripts/status.py (2251b), SKILL.md (5672b), _meta.json (143b)\n\nFile v2.0.6:SKILL.md\n\n---\nname: polymarket-ai-divergence\ndisplayName: Polymarket AI Divergence\ndescription: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.\nmetadata: {\"clawdbot\":{\"emoji\":\"🔮\",\"requires\":{\"env\":[\"SIMMER_API_KEY\"],\"pip\":[\"simmer-sdk\"]},\"cron\":null,\"autostart\":false,\"automaton\":{\"managed\":true,\"entrypoint\":\"ai_divergence.py\"},\"tunables\":[{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":0.05,\"range\":[0.01,0.30],\"step\":0.01,\"label\":\"Minimum edge threshold\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET_USD\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":50,\"range\":[1,200],\"step\":5,\"label\":\"Max bet per trade\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":0.25,\"range\":[0.01,1.0],\"step\":0.01,\"label\":\"Kelly fraction cap\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET_USD\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":100,\"range\":[10,500],\"step\":10,\"label\":\"Daily budget\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":5,\"range\":[1,20],\"step\":1,\"label\":\"Max trades per run\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION_FILTER\",\"type\":\"enum\",\"default\":\"any\",\"options\":[\"any\",\"yes_only\",\"no_only\"],\"label\":\"Direction filter\"}]}}\nauthors:\n  - Simmer (@simmer_markets)\nversion: \"2.0.2\"\ndifficulty: intermediate\npublished: true\n---\n\n# Polymarket AI Divergence Trader\n\nFind markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.\n\n> **This is a template.** The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## What It Does\n\n1. **Scans** all active markets for AI vs market price divergence\n2. **Filters** to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees\n3. **Checks** safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)\n4. **Sizes** using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively\n5. **Executes** trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)\n\n## Quick Commands\n\n```bash\n# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10\n```\n\n## Configuration\n\n| Key | Env Var | Default | Description |\n|-----|---------|---------|-------------|\n| `min_divergence` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN` | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display |\n| `min_edge` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE` | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) |\n| `max_bet_usd` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET` | 5.0 | Max bet per trade |\n| `max_trades_per_run` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES` | 3 | Max trades per cycle |\n| `kelly_cap` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP` | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap |\n| `daily_budget` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET` | 25.0 | Daily spend limit |\n| `default_direction` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION` | (both) | Filter: \"bullish\" or \"bearish\" |\n\nUpdate via CLI: `python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10`\n\n## How It Works\n\n### Divergence Signal\n\nEach imported market has two prices:\n- **AI consensus** (`current_probability`) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting\n- **External price** (`external_price_yes`) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi\n\n`divergence = AI consensus - external price`\n\nWhen divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES\nWhen divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO\n\n### Kelly Sizing\n\nPosition size uses the Kelly criterion:\n```\nkelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd\n```\nCapped at `kelly_cap` (default 25%) to limit risk.\n\n### Fee Filtering\n\n75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill **only trades zero-fee markets** to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.\n\n### Safeguards\n\n- **Fee check**: Skips markets with any taker fee\n- **Flip-flop detection**: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades\n- **Position check**: Skips markets where you already hold a position\n- **Daily budget**: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached\n- **Kelly sizing**: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting\n\n## API Endpoints Used\n\n- `GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities` — Divergence-ranked market list\n- `GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id}` — Fee rate and safeguards per market\n- `POST /api/sdk/trade` — Trade execution (via SDK client)\n- `GET /api/sdk/positions` — Current portfolio positions\n\n## Troubleshooting\n\n**\"No markets above min edge threshold\"**\n→ All divergences are below the `min_edge` setting. Lower it with `--set min_edge=0.01` or wait for larger divergences.\n\n**\"Daily budget exhausted\"**\n→ The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with `--set daily_budget=50`.\n\n**All markets skipped for fees**\n→ Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.\n\n**\"context fetch failed\"**\n→ The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce `max_trades_per_run`.\n\nFile v2.0.6:_meta.json\n\n{\n  \"ownerId\": \"kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x\",\n  \"slug\": \"polymarket-ai-divergence\",\n  \"version\": \"2.0.6\",\n  \"publishedAt\": 1772186677029\n}\n\nArchive v2.0.5: 4 files, 9930 bytes\n\nFiles: ai_divergence.py (20687b), scripts/status.py (2251b), SKILL.md (5647b), _meta.json (143b)\n\nFile v2.0.5:SKILL.md\n\n---\nname: polymarket-ai-divergence\ndisplayName: Polymarket AI Divergence\ndescription: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.\nmetadata: {\"clawdbot\":{\"emoji\":\"🔮\",\"requires\":{\"env\":[\"SIMMER_API_KEY\"],\"pip\":[\"simmer-sdk\"]},\"cron\":null,\"autostart\":false,\"automaton\":{\"managed\":true,\"entrypoint\":\"ai_divergence.py\"},\"tunables\":[{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":0.05,\"range\":[0.01,0.30],\"step\":0.01,\"label\":\"Minimum edge threshold\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET_USD\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":50,\"range\":[1,200],\"step\":5,\"label\":\"Max bet per trade\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":0.25,\"range\":[0.01,1.0],\"step\":0.01,\"label\":\"Kelly fraction cap\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET_USD\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":100,\"range\":[10,500],\"step\":10,\"label\":\"Daily budget\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":5,\"range\":[1,20],\"step\":1,\"label\":\"Max trades per run\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION_FILTER\",\"type\":\"enum\",\"default\":\"any\",\"options\":[\"any\",\"yes_only\",\"no_only\"],\"label\":\"Direction filter\"}]}}\nauthors:\n  - Simmer (@simmer_markets)\nversion: \"2.0.2\"\npublished: true\n---\n\n# Polymarket AI Divergence Trader\n\nFind markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.\n\n> **This is a template.** The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## What It Does\n\n1. **Scans** all active markets for AI vs market price divergence\n2. **Filters** to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees\n3. **Checks** safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)\n4. **Sizes** using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively\n5. **Executes** trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)\n\n## Quick Commands\n\n```bash\n# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10\n```\n\n## Configuration\n\n| Key | Env Var | Default | Description |\n|-----|---------|---------|-------------|\n| `min_divergence` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN` | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display |\n| `min_edge` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE` | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) |\n| `max_bet_usd` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET` | 5.0 | Max bet per trade |\n| `max_trades_per_run` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES` | 3 | Max trades per cycle |\n| `kelly_cap` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP` | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap |\n| `daily_budget` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET` | 25.0 | Daily spend limit |\n| `default_direction` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION` | (both) | Filter: \"bullish\" or \"bearish\" |\n\nUpdate via CLI: `python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10`\n\n## How It Works\n\n### Divergence Signal\n\nEach imported market has two prices:\n- **AI consensus** (`current_probability`) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting\n- **External price** (`external_price_yes`) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi\n\n`divergence = AI consensus - external price`\n\nWhen divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES\nWhen divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO\n\n### Kelly Sizing\n\nPosition size uses the Kelly criterion:\n```\nkelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd\n```\nCapped at `kelly_cap` (default 25%) to limit risk.\n\n### Fee Filtering\n\n75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill **only trades zero-fee markets** to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.\n\n### Safeguards\n\n- **Fee check**: Skips markets with any taker fee\n- **Flip-flop detection**: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades\n- **Position check**: Skips markets where you already hold a position\n- **Daily budget**: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached\n- **Kelly sizing**: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting\n\n## API Endpoints Used\n\n- `GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities` — Divergence-ranked market list\n- `GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id}` — Fee rate and safeguards per market\n- `POST /api/sdk/trade` — Trade execution (via SDK client)\n- `GET /api/sdk/positions` — Current portfolio positions\n\n## Troubleshooting\n\n**\"No markets above min edge threshold\"**\n→ All divergences are below the `min_edge` setting. Lower it with `--set min_edge=0.01` or wait for larger divergences.\n\n**\"Daily budget exhausted\"**\n→ The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with `--set daily_budget=50`.\n\n**All markets skipped for fees**\n→ Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.\n\n**\"context fetch failed\"**\n→ The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce `max_trades_per_run`.\n\nFile v2.0.5:_meta.json\n\n{\n  \"ownerId\": \"kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x\",\n  \"slug\": \"polymarket-ai-divergence\",\n  \"version\": \"2.0.5\",\n  \"publishedAt\": 1772171487079\n}","readmeExcerpt":"Skill: Polymarket Ai Divergence Owner: adlai88 Summary: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec... Tags: latest:2.0.6 Version history: v2.0.6 | 2026-02-27T10:04:37.029Z | auto - Added \"difficulty: intermediate\" to the SKILL.md metadata. - No core logic or functionality changes; documentation update on","codeSnippets":[],"executableExamples":[{"language":"bash","snippet":"# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10"},{"language":"text","snippet":"kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd"},{"language":"bash","snippet":"# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10"},{"language":"text","snippet":"kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd"}],"parameters":null,"dependencies":[],"permissions":[],"extractedFiles":[{"path":"SKILL.md","content":"---\nname: polymarket-ai-divergence\ndisplayName: Polymarket AI Divergence\ndescription: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.\nmetadata: {\"clawdbot\":{\"emoji\":\"🔮\",\"requires\":{\"env\":[\"SIMMER_API_KEY\"],\"pip\":[\"simmer-sdk\"]},\"cron\":null,\"autostart\":false,\"automaton\":{\"managed\":true,\"entrypoint\":\"ai_divergence.py\"},\"tunables\":[{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":0.05,\"range\":[0.01,0.30],\"step\":0.01,\"label\":\"Minimum edge threshold\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET_USD\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":50,\"range\":[1,200],\"step\":5,\"label\":\"Max bet per trade\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":0.25,\"range\":[0.01,1.0],\"step\":0.01,\"label\":\"Kelly fraction cap\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET_USD\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":100,\"range\":[10,500],\"step\":10,\"label\":\"Daily budget\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN\",\"type\":\"number\",\"default\":5,\"range\":[1,20],\"step\":1,\"label\":\"Max trades per run\"},{\"env\":\"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION_FILTER\",\"type\":\"enum\",\"default\":\"any\",\"options\":[\"any\",\"yes_only\",\"no_only\"],\"label\":\"Direction filter\"}]}}\nauthors:\n  - Simmer (@simmer_markets)\nversion: \"2.0.2\"\ndifficulty: intermediate\npublished: true\n---\n\n# Polymarket AI Divergence Trader\n\nFind markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.\n\n> **This is a template.** The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## What It Does\n\n1. **Scans** all active markets for AI vs market price divergence\n2. **Filters** to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees\n3. **Checks** safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)\n4. **Sizes** using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively\n5. **Executes** trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)\n\n## Quick Commands\n\n```bash\n# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10\n```\n\n## Configuration\n\n| Key | Env Var | Default | Description |\n|-----|---------|---------|-------------|\n| `min_divergence` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN` | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display |\n| "},{"path":"_meta.json","content":"{\n  \"ownerId\": \"kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x\",\n  \"slug\": \"polymarket-ai-divergence\",\n  \"version\": \"2.0.6\",\n  \"publishedAt\": 1772186677029\n}"}],"languages":[],"docsSourceLabel":"CLAWHUB","editorialOverview":"Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec... Skill: Polymarket Ai Divergence Owner: adlai88 Summary: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec... 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