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B1 <chain>\nDelays: <where; rough magnitude>\nDominant loop: <…> — matches observed behavior because <…>\nStocks: <…>  Flows: <…>\nPredicted behavior without intervention: <pattern + timeframe>\nLeverage (Meadows): lowest <param>; higher <structural>; highest <goal/paradigm>\nIntervention: <move> | System response: <…> | Backfire risk: <…>\nFalsifier: <observable that would prove the diagnosis wrong>"},{"kind":"example","language":"text","snippet":"System / variable: AI compute build-out / installed capacity + capex rate\nLoops: R1 capex→compute→better models→demand→revenue→capex; R2 revenue/valuation→cheap capital→capex;\n       B1 capex→input scarcity (power/packaging/HBM)→cost↑→capex checked;\n       B2 capex→depreciation + capacity→ROIC↓ if demand lags→discipline→capex checked;\n       B3 more builders→price/capability convergence→margin↓→weaker next increment\nDelays: data-center + power build-out (multi-year, critical); chip/packaging (~1yr+);\n        monetization (quarters–years); ROIC signal (lagged into later statements)\nDominant loop: R1+R2 through 2024–2025 (compounding capacity, valuations, capex) — balancing loops not yet binding due to delay\nStocks: installed compute, data centers under construction, in-flight chip orders, depreciation, conviction\nFlows: capex rate, capacity-energized rate, AI-revenue rate  (high flow ≠ adequate stock now, due to build delay)\nPredicted behavior without intervention: overshoot-and-correct / capacity-cycle bullwhip, not smooth exponential;\n        possible digestion pause before sustainable path\nLeverage (Meadows): lowest = one quarter's capex figure; higher = shorten build delay + import ROIC discipline early;\n        highest = question the \"more compute always wins\" paradigm\nIntervention: pre-secure power + second-source packaging/memory (shorten delay) | System response: damps overshoot |\n        Backfire risk: over-push R1 → stranded capacity; over-cut on false signal → cede flywheel to a rival\nFalsifier: ROIC holds/rises as capex compounds with no digestion pause ⇒ R1 genuinely self-sustaining, diagnosis wrong"}]}}