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Tags: latest:1.1.11 Version history: v1.1.11 | 2026-03-27T01:11:25.751Z | user Aligned output granularity with the latest structure: replaced the old CAR block with fixed Consensus Decomposition,","descriptionLabel":"Technical summary","evidenceSummary":"Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 2.1K downloads reported by the source. 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Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Revie...\n\nTags: latest:1.1.11\n\nVersion history:\n\nv1.1.11 | 2026-03-27T01:11:25.751Z | user\n\nAligned output granularity with the latest structure: replaced the old CAR block with fixed Consensus Decomposition, hardened U.S. Internal Structure into a checklist-style required section, and made Sector Expression explicitly require top/bottom sector ranking plus confirmation from key leading baskets.\n\nv1.1.10 | 2026-03-25T14:00:03.647Z | user\n\nAdded explicit U.S. leading market-internal basket (Russell 2000, homebuilders, transports, retail, regional banks, industrial metals/copper) as required inspection set for U.S. internal structure. These baskets are now treated as economic telltales, not optional side notes.\n\nv1.1.9 | 2026-03-25T11:05:41.771Z | user\n\nExpanded the U.S. internal structure layer with equal-weight, small-cap, high-beta, sector leadership, and breadth confirmation rules so U.S. briefs now carry the same tape/structure depth as the upgraded A-share version.\n\nv1.1.8 | 2026-03-25T10:19:51.497Z | user\n\nExpanded the A-share internal structure layer with breadth, limit-up/limit-down, new highs/lows, median-stock-return proxies, turnover change, and explicit top/bottom industry expression requirements so daily briefs read more like real A-share tape and sector structure work.\n\nv1.1.7 | 2026-03-25T09:54:17.548Z | user\n\nReplaced CAR Snapshot anti-consensus with Open Attack Surface and aligned the base skill to work alongside a separate challenger layer instead of forcing fake contrarian takes.\n\nv1.1.6 | 2026-03-24T01:25:02.015Z | user\n\nTightened Morning Brief opening logic into three hard rules: event selection, market interpretation, and headline-driven ordering, making briefs less vacuum-sealed and more responsive to obvious market-moving events.\n\nv1.1.5 | 2026-03-24T01:08:51.403Z | user\n\nRemoved stale hardcoded macro-event examples from the opening-layer rules and tightened Big Events logic so daily briefs stay fresh, implication-first, and market-relevant for both A-share and U.S. outputs.\n\nv1.1.4 | 2026-03-24T00:58:47.746Z | user\n\nAdded visible published-version line to SKILL.md for markdown-only clients and refined Big Events rules so stale macro headlines move into background regime context unless the market is actively repricing them again.\n\nv1.1.2 | 2026-03-20T01:47:20.751Z | user\n\nRefined Big Events opening layer to rank overnight developments by actual market transmission relevance; A-share briefs no longer default to a fixed U.S. macro trio and now explicitly include China policy, ECB/BOJ, RMB, HK, and commodity relevance when they matter.\n\nv1.1.1 | 2026-03-19T07:30:21.695Z | user\n\nAdded Big Events / Main Theme / Underpriced Risks opening layer for A-share and U.S. briefs, improved event-first framing, and fixed framework numbering.\n\nv1.1.0 | 2026-03-18T06:59:22.906Z | user\n\nPromote to v1.1.0: adopt the new PM-note morning brief structure with Macro Position Snapshot, Primary Drivers Today, CAR Snapshot, Top Breakouts / Key Moves, and Sizing Ladder for both A-share and U.S. workflows, with clearer section responsibilities and cleaner daily hierarchy.\n\nv1.0.19 | 2026-03-18T06:52:20.615Z | user\n\nAdopt the latest PM-note structure: add Macro Position Snapshot and Primary Drivers Today for both A-share and U.S. briefs, tighten role separation between Regime / Drivers / CAR, and add a Sizing Ladder to both markets for more explicit conviction scaling.\n\nv1.0.18 | 2026-03-18T05:34:57.314Z | user\n\nRefine daily PM-note structure: add Macro Position Snapshot, move CAR Snapshot and Top Breakouts to the front for both A-share and U.S. briefs, enforce one dominant thesis, and keep breakout ordering stable by decision relevance.\n\nv1.0.17 | 2026-03-18T03:55:00.686Z | user\n\nRefine daily memo structure to feel more like a PM morning note: enforce one dominant thesis, move CAR Snapshot and Top Breakouts to the front, compress slow-moving nowcast layers by default, and require natural judgment language instead of raw proxy labels in final output.\n\nv1.0.16 | 2026-03-18T02:20:15.151Z | user\n\nRefine A-share domestic-demand layer for daily use: compress 5.4 into a default status-based nowcast with one-line composite read, and only expand sub-blocks when data updates, the thesis changes, or the market is actively trading that layer.\n\nv1.0.15 | 2026-03-17T16:49:34.429Z | user\n\nSimplify safety-footer rule: keep one standard disclaimer rendered in the resolved user language instead of duplicating separate Chinese and English variants.\n\nv1.0.14 | 2026-03-17T16:48:13.181Z | user\n\nComplete English-only cleanup across all visible skill files, including the remaining A-share tape reference and human-facing script labels/output fields, while preserving parser compatibility for Chinese upstream data sources.\n\nv1.0.13 | 2026-03-17T16:42:35.404Z | user\n\nEnglish-only documentation cleanup: convert SKILL.md, README.md, and core-panels-and-sources reference fully to English while preserving multilingual output behavior and trigger logic.\n\nv1.0.12 | 2026-03-17T16:35:03.571Z | user\n\nAdd formal language-resolution policy: explicit instruction > account preference > current-session habit > platform locale > message-language detection, with persistence and conflict rules for multilingual users.\n\nv1.0.11 | 2026-03-17T16:08:01.860Z | user\n\nAdd formal News Validation module for both A-share and U.S. workflows, with source priority, lightweight verification rules, and explicit supports/conflicts/noise guidance.\n\nv1.0.10 | 2026-03-17T15:53:40.867Z | user\n\nStabilize A-share daily output: replace routine hard gaps for northbound truth, property/LGFV spread truth, and direct industry net-flow truth with daily proxy-first logic; add credit-risk, industry-expression, and northbound proxy derivations.\n\nv1.0.9 | 2026-03-17T15:34:44.646Z | user\n\nStabilize daily U.S. brief output: move Europe breadth, MOVE, JPY vol, and sell-side revisions breadth out of routine hard-gaps when stable proxies exist; add Europe breadth proxy and codify daily-vs-enhancement rules.\n\nv1.0.8 | 2026-03-17T15:19:11.984Z | user\n\nAdd proxy logic for previously missing U.S. fields: MOVE now falls back to a 10Y realized-vol proxy, JPY vol falls back to USDJPY 20d realized vol, and daily earnings-revision breadth falls back to a public fundamental-validation proxy built from profits, labor costs, productivity, and sector relative strength.\n\nv1.0.7 | 2026-03-17T15:10:53.151Z | user\n\nImprove U.S. fundamental validation: add stable public profitability and margin proxies (corporate profits, unit labor costs, productivity) so the section no longer defaults to evidence-insufficient when official data exists.\n\nv1.0.6 | 2026-03-17T15:08:25.669Z | user\n\nImprove U.S. domestic-demand nowcast: replace generic evidence-insufficient defaults with stable latest-official public data fields (housing, consumption, logistics, industrial activity), and add corresponding FRED series to the panel script.\n\nv1.0.5 | 2026-03-17T14:58:44.726Z | user\n\nReference cleanup: merged v1-indicators.md and v1-data-map.md into a single core-panels-and-sources reference, removed redundant backup and stale reference files, and simplified internal documentation.\n\nv1.0.4 | 2026-03-17T14:51:21.266Z | user\n\nSecurity-focused fix: confine runtime cache to the skill-local .runtime directory by default instead of writing to workspace-level memory; document explicit STANLEY_RUNTIME_DIR override for advanced users.\n\nv1.0.3 | 2026-03-17T14:45:34.888Z | user\n\nMerge update: preserve v1.0.1 thesis-driven PM memo style and references while upgrading to v1.0.3 with unified A-share and U.S. macro-to-execution framework, four operating modes, domestic-demand nowcast layer, and clearer regime/position/kill-switch structure.\n\nv1.0.2 | 2026-03-17T14:36:41.124Z | user\n\nUpgrade to v1.0.2: expand from macro note into macro-to-execution decision engine for A-share and U.S. markets; add Morning/Intraday/Close/Weekly modes, domestic-demand nowcast layer, sector/fundamental/reflexivity modules, and clearer regime/position/kill-switch outputs.\n\nv1.0.1 | 2026-02-20T05:24:18.328Z | user\n\nMaintenance release: README polish and workflow documentation updates.\n\nv1.0.0 | 2026-02-20T05:21:51.918Z | user\n\nInitial public release: thesis-driven macro workflow with A-G modes, evidence protocol, and safe downgrade behavior.\n\nArchive index:\n\nArchive v1.1.11: 7 files, 38190 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (150b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), skill-card.md (3123b), SKILL.md (39435b)\n\nFile v1.1.11:SKILL.md\n\n---\nname: stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\ndescription: Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Reviews, Weekly Regime Resets, and pre-trade sanity checks. Use when the user asks for an A-share morning brief, a U.S. morning brief, a pre-market view, an intraday state update, an end-of-day review, a weekly regime reset, a market-location read, portfolio-bias guidance, falsification conditions, market priority, industry priority, or a translation from liquidity, rates, credit, real-economy demand, price, structure, sector expression, fundamentals, and reflexivity into Regime, Best Expression, Position Bias, Kill-switch, and Watchlist.\n---\n\n# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\n> Published version: **1.1.11**\n\n## 1) Positioning\n\nUse a public-data process that approximates a Druckenmiller-style workflow.\nDo not claim private access or exact replication of the real person.\nDo not present inference as quoted fact.\n\nThis skill is a **macro-to-execution decision engine**, not a generic news summarizer.\n\nIts job is to:\n- identify the current regime\n- form a thesis first, then test it against tape\n- trace transmission from upstream conditions to downstream market expression\n- translate that into executable positioning language\n- define falsification clearly\n\nIts job is not to:\n- issue individual stock buy/sell calls\n- promise prediction accuracy\n- replace human execution judgment\n- dump raw data without synthesis\n\n### Product boundary\n- Strongest use: first-layer macro environment judgment\n- Human-owned layer: exact asset, exact entry, exact size, exact risk budget\n- Honest framing: AI watches the environment; the human decides how to bet\n\nWhen extending or maintaining the skill, read:\n- `references/core-panels-and-sources.md`\n- `references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md`\n\n---\n\n## 2) Output Style (Strict)\n\n- Output in the resolved user language.\n- Voice should feel like a live PM memo: direct, conditional, concise, human.\n- Depth parity rule: Chinese and English outputs should have equivalent analytical depth for the same request type.\n- Do not output JSON, YAML, code blocks, key-value dumps, or tool logs unless the user explicitly asks for machine format.\n- Markdown headings and bullets are allowed.\n- On first mention, explain each ticker or series in the user's language when that helps readability.\n- Facts and interpretation must be distinguishable.\n\n### Language Policy\nResolve output language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- current-session language habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference unless the user explicitly confirms a long-term change\n- if account preference and session habit conflict for multiple turns, ask once and persist the answer at the appropriate layer\n- if ambiguity remains, default to the language of the latest user message\n- preserve equivalent analytical depth across languages\n\n### Human PM texture\nKeep some human realness in the memo:\n- what I think is happening now\n- where I may be wrong first\n- crowding / pain-trade\n- first validation signal I care about next\n\nAvoid bland filler such as “overall” or “market sentiment is mixed” unless tied to concrete evidence.\n\n---\n\n## 3) Core Rules\n\n1. Thesis first, tape second.\n2. Rates and FX define the macro weather before equity opinions.\n3. Credit decides whether equity strength is high quality or fragile.\n4. Use probabilistic language; avoid false certainty.\n5. Always include falsification.\n6. Always include `data_timestamp` in ISO8601 with timezone.\n7. Distinguish clearly between:\n   - data\n   - inference\n   - action implication\n8. Never provide explicit trade orders:\n   - no entry price\n   - no stop\n   - no target\n   - no size percentage\n\n### Asset hierarchy rule\n1. Policy / liquidity / rates / FX = upstream\n2. Credit / market liquidity = middle confirmation layer\n3. Equities / sectors / breadth = downstream expression\n4. If downstream action contradicts upstream conditions, flag it as a divergence or possible regime transition immediately.\n\n### Fusion rule\nDo not write panel-by-panel commentary unless the user explicitly asks for a dashboard readout.\nPrefer a small number of causal throughlines.\nEvery non-appendix paragraph should ideally connect at least two different panels or markets.\n\n---\n\n## 4) Evidence Protocol\n\n### Evidence anchors\nDefault method: concentrated evidence anchors near the end.\n\nUse a section named `Evidence Anchors` with top 6-12 items.\nEach anchor should include:\n- panel or metric\n- direction or change\n- lookback window\n- timestamp\n- source\n\nIf a claim lacks required evidence, tag it:\n- `[EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT: missing X]`\n\n### Field status policy\nWhen a field is not fully usable, mark it as one of:\n- `ok`\n- `stale`\n- `proxy`\n- `evidence insufficient`\n\nNever silently treat missing data as confirmed evidence.\n\n---\n\n## 5) Data-Limited Downgrade Rule\n\nIf required dashboards are missing:\n- keep the memo alive\n- explicitly name missing panels\n- avoid fake precision\n- use valid proxy indicators where appropriate\n- reduce confidence and narrow conviction\n\nIf coverage is severely incomplete:\n- start with `DATA LIMITED`\n- list missing panels\n- restrict output to factual observations plus narrow inference\n- do not force a strong regime call\n\nExamples:\n- if northbound net buy is invalid, use Stock Connect breadth and relative style strength as a proxy\n- if domestic high-frequency demand data is missing, do not force a cyclical or recovery thesis\n- if a major real-world event is clearly dominating the session, start from that event and its market interpretation before moving into indicators\n\n---\n\n## 6) Output Modes\n\n### Mode A — Morning Brief\nUse for pre-market decision output.\n\nGoal:\n- answer how to see today\n- answer whether risk can be added\n- answer what the best expression is\n\nCore outputs:\n- Bottom line\n- Regime\n- Core Thesis\n- Best Expression\n- Position Bias\n- Kill-switch\n- Watchlist\n\n### Mode B — Intraday Alert\nUse only when a meaningful state change happens.\n\nFormat:\n- `what changed -> which layer it affects -> whether Position Bias should change`\n\nExamples:\n- `northbound conditions shifted from supportive to weak -> affects A-share market liquidity and internal structure -> Position Bias: add -> reduce`\n- `HY OAS widened further -> affects credit transmission -> Position Bias: starter -> reduce`\n\nDo not spam. No routine noise alerts.\n\n### Mode C — Close Review\nUse after market close.\n\nGoal:\n- identify which layer changed first\n- compare thesis vs tape\n- explain what invalidated or confirmed the prior view\n- define what matters next session\n\nCore outputs:\n- what was right\n- what broke first\n- whether kill-switch triggered\n- what changes tomorrow\n\n### Mode D — Weekly Regime Reset\nUse for weekly recalibration.\n\nGoal:\n- re-evaluate the dominant transmission chain\n- prevent daily noise from distorting the framework\n- reset priority markets, sectors, and bias\n\nCore outputs:\n- weekly regime\n- dominant transmission chain\n- best expression\n- risk reset conditions\n\n### Mode E — Pre-trade Consult (Optional)\nUse for sanity checks before a trade idea.\n\nGoal:\n- define the user's implied thesis\n- test that thesis against the current regime\n- identify the friction point and the missing confirmation\n\n### Mode F — Asset Divergence Monitor (Optional)\nUse when the user asks to watch one asset or one ticker.\n\nGoal:\n- compare narrative vs tape for the target asset\n- cross-check it against macro weather\n- assign a divergence status\n\n---\n\n## 7) Required Final Translation Fields\n\nEvery full Morning Brief should converge to:\n- one dominant thesis\n- Regime\n- Regime Bias\n- Best Expression\n- Position Bias\n- Kill-switch\n- Why now\n- Watchlist\n\n### Dominant-thesis rule\nEach daily brief must make one main bet in one sentence.\nSecondary observations may support, nuance, or challenge that thesis, but they should not compete with it.\nIf the brief sounds like several equally-important explanations at once, it is too diffuse.\n\n### Position Bias vocabulary\nUse only:\n- `flat`\n- `starter`\n- `add`\n- `press`\n- `reduce`\n- `exit`\n\n### Sizing ladder intent\nUse the ladder consistently:\n- `flat` = no meaningful risk exposure\n- `starter` = exploratory or early-confirmation risk\n- `add` = confirmed but still selective risk increase\n- `press` = thesis, tape, and structure are aligned strongly enough to materially increase risk\n- `reduce` = cut exposure, but not necessarily exit the view completely\n- `exit` = close the expression because the thesis failed or the kill-switch triggered\n\n---\n\n## 8) A-Share Transmission Framework\n\nUse this structure for A-share outputs.\n\n### 8.1 Big Events / Main Theme / Underpriced Risks [24H / 1–5D]\nPut this before Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nPurpose:\n- start with what actually happened in the real world\n- identify what the market is truly trading today\n- surface what matters but may still be underpriced or ignored\n- rank overnight events by actual transmission relevance to A-shares\n\nInclude:\n- Big Events\n- Main Theme\n- Underpriced / Ignored\n\nA-share ranking priority:\n1. Domestic policy, regulation, and domestic macro events\n2. Global central-bank, rates, and FX developments that materially change China-facing pricing\n3. Geopolitics and commodity moves that materially change inflation, growth, or risk appetite\n4. HK market, RMB, and offshore China assets\n5. Industry-specific catalysts only when they can realistically change today's A-share pricing\n\nEvent selection rule:\n- before writing any Morning Brief, identify the top 2-4 events from the last 24 hours that are still actively influencing market pricing today\n- do not include events that are merely recent but no longer being repriced\n- if an event is widely covered by major market media or clearly reflected in cross-asset pricing, omitting it is an error\n- do not hardcode recurring example headlines into the template\n\nMarket interpretation rule:\n- for each included event, always state:\n  - what happened\n  - how the market interpreted it\n  - what assets confirmed that interpretation\n  - why it matters for today's A-share pricing\n- if an event cannot be translated into a clear A-share implication, downgrade it to background context or omit it\n- if an older theme still matters but is no longer a fresh catalyst, move it into Background Context / Regime Context language instead of keeping it as a top event\n\nHeadline-driven ordering rule:\n- on headline-driven days, event interpretation must appear before indicator discussion\n- do not start this section with indicators, ETF tickers, or proxy jargon\n- if no single event dominates, explicitly say the session looks more structure-driven or positioning-driven\n- a brief that jumps straight into indicators while ignoring obvious market-moving events is incomplete\n\n### 8.2 Macro Position Snapshot\nPut this before Today’s Regime.\n\nPurpose:\n- answer clearly where the market sits in the macro cycle\n- separate the structural backdrop from the day’s tactical regime\n\nUse a fixed five-line format:\n- Growth\n- Inflation\n- Liquidity\n- Credit\n- Position in cycle\n\nEach line should be short and explicit.\nThe final line must summarize the macro location in one sentence.\n\n### 8.3 Today’s Regime\nPut this immediately after Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what regime are we in right now?\n\nInclude:\n- Bottom line\n- one dominant thesis in one sentence\n- Regime\n- Regime Bias\n- Confidence\n- Kill-switch\n- the asymmetry in one sentence when possible\n\nDo not use this section to re-list drivers or repeat the consensus/anti-consensus framing.\n\n### 8.4 Primary Drivers Today\nPlace this section immediately after Today’s Regime.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- which 2-3 variables are driving price today?\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 drivers\n- never include more than 3\n- each driver should include:\n  - current state\n  - directional tilt\n  - one-line reason it matters today\n- do not let this section turn into a full panel dump\n\n### 8.5 CAR Snapshot\nPlace this section immediately after Primary Drivers Today.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what does the market believe, where may it be wrong, and what follows next?\n\nKeep it compressed.\nUse three one-line bullets only:\n- Consensus\n- Anti-consensus\n- Second-order\n\nDo not repeat the regime definition or simply restate the driver list.\n\n### 8.6 Top Breakouts / Key Moves\nPlace this section near the top.\n\nPurpose:\n- surface the 1-3 most important new changes since the prior session\n- add edge and actionability to the memo\n- prevent the brief from becoming a purely structural framework without marginal information\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 items\n- every item must answer:\n  1. what changed\n  2. why it matters\n  3. what to watch next\n- only include changes that validate or challenge the dominant thesis, or represent a meaningful breakout, divergence, or regime-relevant move\n- do not include generic market summaries or repeated framework points\n\nOrdering rule (must keep the section stable and non-random):\n1. the move that most directly affects the dominant thesis or regime\n2. the move that most changes positioning / expression today\n3. the move that is most important to monitor next\n\nDo not sort by raw percentage move alone.\nSort by decision relevance.\n\n### 8.7 Internal Structure [Intraday / 1–10D]\nThis section is a standalone health-check layer, not a sub-item of transmission.\n\nRequired fields to inspect:\n- Breadth:\n  - advancers / decliners\n  - limit-up / limit-down\n  - new highs / new lows when available\n  - median stock return or equivalent money-making-effect proxy when available\n- Relative strength:\n  - CSI 300 vs CSI 1000\n  - ChiNext / STAR / main board when relevant\n  - growth vs value / dividend vs high-beta when relevant\n- Sector expression:\n  - top 5 industry gainers\n  - top 5 industry losers\n  - classify leadership as financial / cyclical / growth / defensive / mixed\n  - note whether leadership is broadening or narrowly clustered\n- Price / trend quality:\n  - turnover expansion or contraction versus the prior session\n  - whether breadth confirms the index move\n  - whether the move is a healthy diffusion, short squeeze, or weak rebound\n\nRules:\n- do not leave this section at the level of broad adjectives only\n- if sector and breadth data are available, the brief must mention them explicitly\n- if a rebound is led only by a narrow cluster, say so clearly\n- if breadth is strong but leadership is low quality, say so clearly\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read on whether the move is healthy diffusion or narrow clustering\n\n### 8.8 Best Expression & Position Bias\nInclude:\n- best long\n- best short / best avoid\n- Position Bias\n- Sizing Ladder\n- Trading Read / PM Notes\n\nUse Sizing Ladder to describe how conviction scales:\n- starter -> add -> press\n- or reduce -> exit when the thesis breaks\n\n### 8.9 What Would Change My Mind\nInclude:\n- IF / THEN conditions\n- turning-point requirements\n- what would move bias up or down the sizing ladder\n\n### 8.10 Macro Transmission\nUse the following substructure.\n\n#### 8.10.1 Global Liquidity & External Pricing\nFocus on:\n- dollar / external liquidity\n- global rates\n- commodities\n- global risk sentiment\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.2 China Policy & Monetary Conditions\nFocus on:\n- policy tone\n- OMO / MLF\n- DR007 / Shibor\n- China rates curve\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.3 Credit Transmission\nFocus on:\n- social financing / new credit / M2\n- property and LGFV credit stress when available\n- leverage proxies such as margin financing\n- daily credit-risk proxy when spread truth is unavailable\n\nDaily rule:\n- do not leave property/LGFV credit stress as a routine hard gap in the daily brief if a stable proxy exists\n- in daily mode, use a credit-risk proxy built from property leaders, joint-stock banks vs big banks, brokers, and other credit-sensitive baskets\n- treat true property/LGFV spread data as weekly or monthly enhancement unless a stable public daily source is available\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.4 Domestic Demand / Real Economy Nowcast\nFetch this section automatically before each A-share morning brief when data is available.\nDo not hardcode values into the skill.\n\nDaily rule:\n- keep this section compressed by default\n- do not expand every sub-block with full fields every day\n- default format should be:\n  - Housing: weak / stabilizing / improving\n  - Consumption: weak / mixed / improving\n  - Logistics / Trade: weak / mixed / improving\n  - Industrial Activity: weak / mixed / improving\n  - Composite Read: one sentence only\n\nExpand the sub-blocks only if one of the following is true:\n1. the underlying data has just updated\n2. the update changes today’s thesis\n3. the market is explicitly trading this layer\n\nPreferred fields behind the compressed read:\n- Housing: core-city second-hand viewings/listings, 30-city new home weekly sales area, land purchase/premium or construction proxy\n- Consumption: CPCA passenger car sales, dealer inventory or premium-consumption proxy, express delivery activity\n- Logistics / Trade: SCFI, port throughput, freight / external-demand proxy\n- Industrial Activity: Daqin railway throughput, electricity usage, excavator domestic sales, steel production / steel price when available\n\nAlways end with:\n- `Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak`\n- one-sentence implication for A-shares\n\n#### 8.10.5 A-Share Market Liquidity\nFocus on:\n- northbound flow or valid proxy when northbound fails\n- total market turnover and turnover delta versus the prior session\n- ETF flows when reliably available\n- leverage / margin\n- style flow\n- concentration versus diffusion in turnover when available\n\nDaily rule:\n- if northbound truth is unavailable or upstream values are clearly invalid, do not report it as a routine hard gap\n- use a northbound proxy built from Stock Connect breadth, core-vs-growth style relative strength, and offshore China-beta confirmation when available\n- do not discuss liquidity without at least referencing turnover and whether the tape expanded or contracted\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.6 Price / Trend\nFocus on:\n- broad indices\n- growth vs value\n- key slope / trend direction\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.7 Industry Expression\nFocus on:\n- which sectors best express the current regime\n- which sectors should be avoided\n- whether leadership is defensive, cyclical, growth, or mixed\n- top 5 industry gainers and top 5 industry losers when data is available\n- whether leadership is broad, rotational, or concentrated in one theme\n\nDaily rule:\n- do not require a stable daily 'industry net flow' truth series to produce this section\n- use industry-expression proxy from sector relative performance, basket leadership, and participation structure when direct industry fund-flow data is unstable\n- treat exact industry fund-flow truth as enhancement, not as a daily hard dependency\n- do not leave this section generic if sector ranking data is available\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.8 Fundamental Validation\nFocus on:\n- whether sector leadership has earnings / valuation support\n- whether price action is backed by real fundamentals\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.9 Reflexivity (Transmission view)\nFocus on:\n- crowding\n- positive reflexivity vs negative reflexivity\n- whether strength reinforces itself or starts to reverse on itself\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n### 8.11 Narrative vs Tape [1–10D]\nInclude:\n- Narrative\n- Tape\n- Transmission\n- Reflexivity (positive / negative / weakening feedback loop)\n\nThis section should answer:\n- what the market says\n- what the market is actually trading\n- whether price action confirms the dominant narrative\n- whether the narrative-price loop is self-reinforcing or self-reversing\n\n### 8.12 News Validation\nUse News Validation as a verification layer, not as the regime engine.\n\nRules:\n- form regime and thesis from transmission first\n- use news only to confirm, challenge, or explain the current thesis\n- include 2-4 headlines max\n- for each headline, always state:\n  - source\n  - whether it Supports / Conflicts / is just Noise\n  - one-line implication\n\nA-share source priority:\n1. Official / policy anchors\n   - State Council / China gov portal / PBOC / CSRC / NDRC / NBS / MOF / MIIT / MOFCOM / Customs / NEA / exchanges\n2. Market wires\n   - CLS / Shanghai Securities News / China Securities Journal / Securities Times / Yicai\n3. Sector verification\n   - CRIC / Cih-index / Beike Research / CPCA / Shanghai Shipping Exchange / State Post Bureau / NEA / industry associations\n\nDo not let a single headline override the transmission framework.\n\n### 8.13 Daily proxy policy (must stabilize output)\nFor the A-share daily brief, the following should not remain routine hard gaps when stable proxies exist:\n- northbound net-buy truth -> use northbound proxy\n- property / LGFV spread truth -> use credit-risk proxy in daily mode and move true spread confirmation to weekly/monthly enhancement\n- direct industry net-flow truth -> use industry-expression proxy\n\nOnly include an item in `Evidence Gaps` if it is a missing P0 field with no acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not list optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n### 8.14 Evidence Anchors\nKeep this after the main body.\nUse 8-12 anchors max.\n\n### 8.15 Data Panel Appendix\nPut the compact panel after the main memo.\nSuggested panels:\n- Policy & Liquidity\n- Credit & Stress\n- Domestic Demand\n- Market Structure\n\nDo not let the appendix dominate the memo.\n\n---\n\n## 9) U.S. Transmission Framework\n\nUse this structure for U.S. equity outputs.\n\n### 9.1 Big Events / Main Theme / Underpriced Risks [24H / 1–5D]\nPut this before Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nPurpose:\n- start with what actually happened in the real world\n- identify what the market is truly trading today\n- surface what matters but may still be underpriced or ignored\n- rank overnight events by actual transmission relevance to U.S. equities\n\nInclude:\n- Big Events\n- Main Theme\n- Underpriced / Ignored\n\nU.S. ranking priority:\n1. Domestic macro, policy, and rates developments that materially change U.S. asset pricing\n2. Geopolitics and commodities when they affect inflation, growth, or risk premia\n3. Other major central banks and FX when they feed back into U.S. rates, dollar, or global risk appetite\n4. Large-cap earnings / sector catalysts only when they are truly index-relevant\n\nEvent selection rule:\n- before writing any Morning Brief, identify the top 2-4 events from the last 24 hours that are still actively influencing market pricing today\n- do not include events that are merely recent but no longer being repriced\n- if an event is widely covered by major market media or clearly reflected in cross-asset pricing, omitting it is an error\n- do not hardcode recurring example headlines into the template\n- rank by actual market relevance each day\n\nMarket interpretation rule:\n- for each included event, always state:\n  - what happened\n  - how the market interpreted it\n  - what assets confirmed that interpretation\n  - why it matters for today's U.S. market pricing\n- if an older theme still matters but is no longer a fresh catalyst, move it into Background Context / Regime Context language instead of keeping it as a top event\n\nHeadline-driven ordering rule:\n- on headline-driven days, event interpretation must appear before indicator discussion\n- do not start this section with indicators, ETF tickers, or proxy jargon\n- if no single event dominates, explicitly say the session looks more structure-driven or positioning-driven\n- a brief that jumps straight into indicators while ignoring obvious market-moving events is incomplete\n\n### 9.2 Macro Position Snapshot\nPut this before Today’s Regime.\n\nPurpose:\n- answer clearly where the market sits in the macro cycle\n- separate the structural backdrop from the day’s tactical regime\n\nUse a fixed five-line format:\n- Growth\n- Inflation\n- Liquidity\n- Credit\n- Position in cycle\n\nEach line should be short and explicit.\nThe final line must summarize the macro location in one sentence.\n\n### 9.3 Today’s Regime\nPut this immediately after Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what regime are we in right now?\n\nInclude:\n- Bottom line\n- one dominant thesis in one sentence\n- Regime\n- Regime Bias\n- Confidence\n- Kill-switch\n- the asymmetry in one sentence when possible\n\nDo not use this section to re-list drivers or repeat the consensus/anti-consensus framing.\n\n### 9.4 Primary Drivers Today\nPlace this section immediately after Today’s Regime.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- which 2-3 variables are driving price today?\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 drivers\n- never include more than 3\n- each driver should include:\n  - current state\n  - directional tilt\n  - one-line reason it matters today\n- do not let this section turn into a full panel dump\n\n### 9.5 CAR Snapshot\nPlace this section immediately after Primary Drivers Today.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what does the market believe, where is the thesis most vulnerable, and what follows next?\n\nKeep it compressed.\nUse three one-line bullets only:\n- Consensus\n- Open Attack Surface\n- Second-order\n\nDo not repeat the regime definition or simply restate the driver list.\nDo not force a fake anti-consensus view here. This slot should identify the weakest part of the thesis or the most attackable assumption, not manufacture a contrarian take for its own sake.\n\n### 9.6 Top Breakouts / Key Moves\nPlace this section near the top.\n\nPurpose:\n- surface the 1-3 most important new changes since the prior session\n- add edge and actionability to the memo\n- prevent the brief from becoming a purely structural framework without marginal information\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 items\n- every item must answer:\n  1. what changed\n  2. why it matters\n  3. what to watch next\n- only include changes that validate or challenge the dominant thesis, or represent a meaningful breakout, divergence, or regime-relevant move\n- do not include generic market summaries or repeated framework points\n\nOrdering rule (must keep the section stable and non-random):\n1. the move that most directly affects the dominant thesis or regime\n2. the move that most changes positioning / expression today\n3. the move that is most important to monitor next\n\nDo not sort by raw percentage move alone.\nSort by decision relevance.\n\n### 9.7 Internal Structure [Intraday / 1–10D]\nThis section is a standalone health-check layer, not a sub-item of transmission.\n\nRequired fields to inspect:\n- Breadth:\n  - RSP / SPY\n  - IWM / SPY\n  - SPHB / SPLV\n  - whether equal-weight and high-beta confirm the index move\n- Relative strength:\n  - SPX / NDQ / RTY relative behavior\n  - growth vs defensives\n  - cyclicals vs defensives when relevant\n- Sector expression:\n  - top 5 sector gainers\n  - top 5 sector losers\n  - whether leadership is broad, rotational, or narrow mega-cap concentration\n- U.S. leading market-internal basket (must inspect when relevant):\n  - Russell 2000 / IWM as small-cap risk appetite proxy\n  - homebuilders (XHB / ITB)\n  - transports / trucking (IYT)\n  - retail (XRT)\n  - regional banks (KRE)\n  - industrial metals / copper proxy (HG=F or equivalent)\n  - explicit note on whether these baskets confirm or contradict the thesis\n- Price / trend quality:\n  - whether breadth confirms the index move\n  - whether credit confirms the move\n  - whether the tape looks like healthy diffusion, short squeeze, weak rebound, or trend continuation\n\nRules:\n- do not leave this section at the level of broad adjectives only\n- if sector and ratio data are available, the brief must mention them explicitly\n- if the market is being held up by mega-cap concentration, say so clearly\n- if small-caps or equal-weight fail to confirm the move, say so clearly\n- treat the U.S. leading market-internal basket as economic telltales, not optional side notes\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read on whether the move is healthy diffusion or narrow clustering\n\n### 9.8 Best Expression & Position Bias\nInclude:\n- best long\n- best short\n- best avoid\n- Position Bias\n- Sizing Ladder\n- PM Notes / Trading Read\n\nUse Sizing Ladder to describe how conviction scales:\n- starter -> add -> press\n- or reduce -> exit when the thesis breaks\n\n### 9.9 What Would Change My Mind\nInclude:\n- IF / THEN triggers\n- turning-point conditions\n- risk re-rating triggers\n- what would move bias up or down the sizing ladder\n\n### 9.10 Macro Transmission\nUse the following substructure.\n\n#### 9.10.1 Fed / Policy & Liquidity\nFocus on:\n- Fed net liquidity\n- ON RRP\n- balance sheet / reserves / QT context\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated liquidity read\n\n#### 9.10.2 Rates & FX Conditions\nFocus on:\n- US 2Y / 10Y\n- 2s10s / 3m10y\n- 10Y TIPS real yield\n- DXY / EURUSD / USDJPY\n- MOVE when directly available, otherwise use a Treasury realized-volatility proxy from 10Y yield changes\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated rates & FX read\n\n#### 9.10.3 Credit Transmission\nFocus on:\n- HY OAS\n- IG OAS if available\n- HYG / SPY\n- KRE / SPY\n- homebuilders, transports, and retail as credit-sensitive confirmation baskets when relevant\n\nRules:\n- when the thesis depends on tightening risk, recession risk, or credit deterioration, explicitly check whether regional banks, homebuilders, transports, retail, and copper are confirming or contradicting the view\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated credit read\n\n#### 9.10.4 Domestic Demand / Real Economy Nowcast\nFetch this section automatically before each U.S. morning brief.\nDo not default this entire section to `EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT` if stable latest-official public data is available.\nIt is acceptable to use the latest official weekly or monthly reading, refreshed on each daily run.\nKeep the write-up compact.\n\n##### Housing\nDefault stable public fields:\n- 30Y mortgage rate (`MORTGAGE30US`)\n- housing starts (`HOUST`)\n- building permits (`PERMIT`)\n\nOptional add-ons when reliably available:\n- mortgage applications\n- new / existing home sales\n- homebuilder sentiment\n\nOutput:\n- 2-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Consumption\nDefault stable public fields:\n- retail sales (`RSAFS`)\n- total vehicle sales / SAAR (`TOTALSA`)\n- real personal consumption expenditure (`PCEC96`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons when reliably available:\n- card / restaurant / travel proxies\n\nOutput:\n- 2-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Logistics / Trade\nDefault stable public fields:\n- freight transportation services index (`TSIFRGHT`)\n- trade / shipping proxy when reliably available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- rail / truck / freight / port / shipping proxies\n\nOutput:\n- 1-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Industrial Activity\nDefault stable public fields:\n- industrial production (`INDPRO`)\n- capacity utilization (`TCU`)\n- durable goods new orders (`DGORDER`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- ISM new orders\n- capex / machinery / energy demand proxies\n\nOutput:\n- 2-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Composite Read\nAlways end with:\n- `Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak`\n- implications for U.S. equities:\n  - if only consumption is firm -> narrow support, not broad cyclical expansion\n  - if housing + industrial + logistics improve together -> broader growth re-acceleration\n  - if all remain weak -> favor quality / defense / large-cap balance-sheet strength\n\n#### 9.10.5 U.S. Market Liquidity\nFocus on:\n- ETF flow proxies\n- volume / participation\n- breadth\n- positioning / crowdedness proxies\n- whether equal-weight, small-caps, and high-beta are confirming the move\n\nDaily rule:\n- do not discuss U.S. market liquidity without at least referencing whether breadth and participation confirm the index move\n- if the move is driven primarily by mega-cap concentration, say so explicitly\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 9.10.6 Price / Trend\nFocus on:\n- SPX / NDQ / RTY\n- major factor trend\n- key levels / slope\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 9.10.7 Sector Expression\nFocus on:\n- Tech\n- Financials\n- Energy\n- Industrials\n- Defensives\n- other regime-relevant sectors\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 9.10.8 Fundamental Validation\nDo not default this block to `EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT` if stable public profitability and margin proxies are available.\n\nDefault stable public core:\n- corporate profits after tax (`CP`)\n- unit labor costs (`ULCNFB`)\n- labor productivity (`OPHNFB`)\n- valuation compatibility versus rates / real yields\n\nOptional enhanced layer when a stable public source is available:\n- earnings season surprise summary\n- guidance breadth / revisions summary\n\nFocus on:\n- whether profitability backdrop is improving, flat, or deteriorating\n- whether margin pressure is easing or worsening\n- whether productivity offsets cost pressure\n- whether price is being driven by earnings or just multiple expansion\n\nOutput:\n- 2-4 compact fields\n- one integrated read\n\nIf only slow-moving official fundamental data is available, still provide a compact read from those latest official values instead of leaving the entire section empty.\n\n#### 9.10.9 Reflexivity (Transmission view)\nFocus on:\n- crowding\n- vol/gamma regime if available\n- positive vs negative reflexivity\n- if JPY implied volatility is unavailable, use USDJPY 20-day realized volatility as the default proxy for carry-stress temperature\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n### 9.11 Narrative vs Tape [1–10D]\nInclude:\n- Narrative\n- Tape\n- Transmission\n- Reflexivity (positive / negative / weakening feedback loop)\n\nThis section should answer:\n- what the market says\n- what the market is actually trading\n- whether price action confirms the dominant narrative\n- whether the narrative-price loop is self-reinforcing or self-reversing\n\n### 9.12 News Validation\nUse News Validation as a verification layer, not as the regime engine.\n\nRules:\n- form regime and thesis from transmission first\n- use news only to confirm, challenge, or explain the current thesis\n- include 2-4 headlines max\n- for each headline, always state:\n  - source\n  - whether it Supports / Conflicts / is just Noise\n  - one-line implication\n\nU.S. source priority:\n1. Core market / macro press\n   - Bloomberg / Reuters / WSJ / FT / CNBC\n2. Official / policy\n   - Federal Reserve / Treasury / BLS / BEA / Census / CBOE\n3. Broader narrative context\n   - NYT / WaPo / AP / major sector press\n\nDo not let a single headline override the transmission framework.\n\n### 9.13 Daily proxy policy (must stabilize output)\nFor the U.S. daily brief, the following should not remain routine hard gaps when a stable proxy exists:\n- Europe breadth panel -> use Europe breadth proxy\n- direct MOVE series -> use Treasury realized-volatility proxy\n- JPY 1M vol -> use USDJPY realized-volatility proxy\n- public daily sell-side revisions breadth -> downgrade to enhancement layer and use fundamental-validation proxy in daily mode\n\nOnly include an item in `Evidence Gaps` if it is a missing P0 field with no acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not list optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n### 9.14 Evidence Anchors\nUse 8-12 anchors max.\n\n### 9.15 Data Panel Appendix\nSuggested panels:\n- Fed / Policy & Liquidity\n- Credit & Stress\n- FX / Macro Shock\n- Domestic Demand / Real Economy\n- Breadth / Market Structure\n\n---\n\n## 10) Data Policy\n\n### A-shares\nPrimary operational source in V1 can be documented simply as:\n- `akshare`\n\nWhen some fields are unavailable, it is acceptable to use:\n- official webpages\n- public reports / PDFs\n- valid proxy indicators\n\n### U.S.\nUse the best available mix of:\n- FRED\n- Stooq / Yahoo / similar market proxies\n- official or widely used public sources\n\n### Practical data rule\nThese fields are **inputs to be auto-fetched before each brief**, not values to hardcode into the skill text.\nThe skill should define:\n- what to fetch\n- from where\n- how often it updates\n- what fallback or proxy is acceptable\n- what to do when it fails\n\n---\n\n## 11) Writing Rules\n\n### Conclusion first\nAlways front-load:\n- big events / main theme / underpriced risks\n- regime\n- one dominant thesis\n- primary drivers today\n- best expression\n- position bias\n- falsification\n\n### Compress data, then interpret\nPrefer:\n- compact panel\n- one integrated read\n- one-line status blocks when a layer is slow-moving\n\nAvoid:\n- one paragraph per data point\n- repetitive `signal:` after every bullet\n- verbose daily expansion of slow-moving nowcast layers\n\n### Reading hierarchy\nUse three layers:\n1. decision layer\n2. reasoning layer\n3. evidence layer\n\nMeaning:\n- sections 1-4 = what to do\n- transmission section = why\n- evidence anchors / appendix = proof\n\n### Preserve human PM texture\nKeep some human color in:\n- Trading Read / PM Notes\n- What Would Change My Mind\n- crowding / pain-trade commentary\n\n### Proxy language rule\nWhen using a proxy, translate it into judgment language in the final memo.\nDo not expose raw system phrasing unless the user explicitly asks for implementation detail.\nPrefer:\n- “Stock Connect breadth still looks weak”\n- “credit-sensitive proxies are not confirming”\n- “sector leadership remains defensive”\n\nAvoid:\n- “northbound proxy says…”\n- “industry-expression proxy says…”\n- “credit-risk proxy says…”\n\nDo not let the memo become a sterile database dump.\n\n---\n\n## 12) Honest Limitations\n\nDo not imply that the skill fully reproduces a live trading desk.\n\nExamples of what it cannot fully replace:\n- single-name leader stock tape reading\n- transcript nuance from one sentence in a call\n- real-time relative-value reads inside fragile credit or sector baskets\n- execution-layer decisions: exact asset, exact level, exact size\n\nWhen users ask if this is “real Stan”, answer in two layers:\n1. The skill can meaningfully help with first-layer macro environment judgment.\n2. The human still owns second-layer execution judgment.\n\n---\n\n## 13) Confidence Mapping\n\n- high: most panels align and data coverage is complete\n- medium: mixed signals or proxy data exists\n- low: conflicting signals or major panel gaps\n\n---\n\n## 14) Safety Footer\n\nAlways append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n- `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\normation and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n owns second-layer execution judgment.\n\n---\n\n## 13) Confidence Mapping\n\n- high: most panels align and data coverage is complete\n- medium: mixed signals or proxy data exists\n- low: conflicting signals or major panel gaps\n\n---\n\n## 14) Safety Footer\n\nAlways append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n- `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\nnstitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n owns second-layer execution judgment.\n\n---\n\n## 13) Confidence Mapping\n\n- high: most panels align and data coverage is complete\n- medium: mixed signals or proxy data exists\n- low: conflicting signals or major panel gaps\n\n---\n\n## 14) Safety Footer\n\nAlways append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n- `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n\nFile v1.1.11:README.md\n\n# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\nThesis-driven market analysis skill for OpenClaw.\n\nThis skill is designed for Druckenmiller-inspired macro/equity thinking with a live PM memo voice:\n- Liquidity and rates first\n- Consensus vs variant explicitly separated\n- D1/D2 (first derivative / second derivative) regime logic\n- Evidence anchors and safety disclaimers\n\nCurrent product framing:\n- Goal: hand most repetitive monitoring work to the machine and leave the highest-value judgment to the human.\n- V1 scope: US-led macro engine + China / A-share transmission layer.\n- Honest limitation: the skill can help with first-layer macro judgment, not fully replace second-layer execution judgment.\n- Core panels and source reference: `references/core-panels-and-sources.md`\n- A-share tape design reference: `references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md`\n\n## What This Skill Produces\n\nDepending on trigger, it can generate:\n- AM morning brief (thesis + validation)\n- EOD wrap\n- Weekly review\n- Monthly regime review\n- Pre-trade thesis collision check\n- Asset divergence monitor\n\nAll outputs are narrative and decision-oriented (not raw JSON dumps).\n\n## Folder Structure\n\n```text\nstanley-druckenmiller-workflow/\n  SKILL.md\n  README.md\n  references/\n    core-panels-and-sources.md\n    a-share-tape-v1_1.md\n  scripts/\n    market_panels.py\n```\n\n## Data Source Fallback (updated)\n\n`market_panels.py` now has two layers:\n\n### Global / cross-asset layer\nPer symbol, the default order is:\n1. finshare (default `first` mode)\n2. Yahoo chart API\n3. Stooq CSV\n4. FRED proxy mapping\n5. Local cache\n\n### A-share structure layer\nA-share internal structure now uses **AkShare** when available, mainly for:\n- northbound flow\n- Shibor / China government bond yields\n- margin financing and securities lending\n- property-chain, transport, consumer-tiering, and credit-sensitive proxy baskets\n\n### Runtime cache scope (security fix)\nBy default, `market_panels.py` now writes cache files only inside the skill directory:\n- `stanley-druckenmiller-workflow/.runtime/market-snapshots/`\n\nIt no longer writes to a workspace-level `memory/` directory by default.\n\nIf you explicitly want a different runtime/cache directory, set:\n\n```bash\nexport STANLEY_RUNTIME_DIR=/your/explicit/runtime/path\n```\n\nIf unset, the script stays confined to the skill-local runtime folder.\n\n### Minimal finshare integration (optional)\n\nDefault mode is `first`:\n- try finshare first\n- if finshare fails, fall back to Yahoo / Stooq / FRED / Cache\n- use `auto` to switch back to “Yahoo first, finshare as fallback”\n\n#### 1) Install optional dependencies\n\n```bash\npip install finshare akshare\n```\n\n#### 2) Enable / disable modes\n\n- CLI arguments (single run)\n\n```bash\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode first\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode auto\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode off\n```\n\n- Environment variables (default global behavior)\n\n```bash\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=first  # default: prefer finshare\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=auto   # Yahoo first, finshare as fallback\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=off    # disable finshare completely\n```\n\n- FRED API key (optional, improves macro-series stability)\n\n```bash\nexport FRED_API_KEY=\"<your_fred_api_key>\"\n```\n\n> If both CLI arguments and environment variables are present, `--finshare-mode` takes precedence.\n\n#### 3) Rollback\n\nIf compatibility issues appear, roll back to “no finshare” mode:\n\n```bash\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=off\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --output /tmp/stanley-panels.json\n```\n\nThis restores the workflow to: Yahoo -> Stooq -> FRED -> Cache, with no finshare dependency.\n\n## Core Design Principles\n\n1. Public data only (no private-info claims)\n2. No explicit trade orders (no entry, stop, target, size)\n3. Probabilistic language over certainty\n4. Facts and interpretation separated\n5. Mandatory fields:\n   - what_would_change_my_mind\n   - data_timestamp (ISO8601)\n6. If data is missing, downgrade safely (DATA LIMITED)\n\n## Language Resolution Policy\n\nResolve output language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- session habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference unless explicitly confirmed\n- if account preference and session habit conflict across multiple turns, ask once and persist at the appropriate layer\n- if ambiguity remains, default to the language of the latest user message\n- preserve equivalent analytical depth across languages\n\n## Triggers and Modes\n\n- Mode A (AM brief):\n  - `morning brief`\n  - `macro update`\n  - `analyze the market with Stan-style workflow`\n  - `how should I view today`\n\n- Mode B (EOD wrap):\n  - `EOD`\n  - `close review`\n  - `today's market recap`\n\n- Mode C (Weekly):\n  - `weekly brief`\n  - `weekly review`\n  - `how to view next week`\n\n- Mode D (Pre-trade consult):\n  - `pre-trade check`\n  - `should I buy/sell`\n  - `sanity-check this trade`\n\n- Mode E (Monthly):\n  - `monthly brief`\n  - `monthly review`\n  - `regime review`\n\n- Mode F (13F rationale):\n  - `13F`\n  - `why did he buy XLF`\n  - `Q3 to Q4 holdings changes`\n\n- Mode G (Asset divergence):\n  - `watch [TICKER]`\n  - `check divergence for [TICKER]`\n  - `asset divergence alert`\n\n## Evidence and Safety Contract\n\n- Include `Evidence anchors` section (top 6-12; Mode G: 3-5)\n- Each anchor should include:\n  - panel/metric\n  - direction/change\n  - lookback window\n  - timestamp\n  - source\n- Missing evidence must be tagged:\n  - `[EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT: missing X]`\n\nSafety footer (always append):\n- append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n  `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n\n## Local Validation Checklist (Before Publish)\n\n1. `SKILL.md` frontmatter valid (`name`, `description`, metadata)\n2. Trigger words route to expected mode\n3. Output contains mandatory fields\n4. DATA LIMITED behavior works when data is missing\n5. No explicit trading instructions in output\n6. Chinese and English depth parity is preserved\n\n## Publish Checklist (ClawHub)\n\nDo this only when you are ready to publish.\n\n1. Login:\n\n```bash\nclawhub login\nclawhub whoami\n```\n\n2. Optional dry run checks:\n\n```bash\nclawhub list\n```\n\n3. Publish command template:\n\n```bash\nclawhub publish ./skills/stanley-druckenmiller-workflow \\\n  --slug stanley-druckenmiller-workflow \\\n  --name \"Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\" \\\n  --version 1.0.0 \\\n  --changelog \"Initial public release: thesis-driven macro workflow with A-G modes, evidence protocol, and safe downgrade behavior.\"\n```\n\n4. Verify result:\n\n- Confirm package page on ClawHub\n- Install from a clean env and run one trigger from Mode A and one from Mode G\n\n## Versioning Suggestion\n\n- Start: `1.0.0`\n- Behavior changes in output contract: bump minor (`1.1.0`)\n- Trigger or schema breaking changes: bump major (`2.0.0`)\n\n## Global Macro Expansion (v2 in progress)\n\nThe skill now includes global proxy panels in `scripts/market_panels.py`:\n- Global equities: FEZ, EWJ, FXI, EWH, EEM, VGK\n- Global FX: EURUSD=X, USDJPY=X, USDCNH=X\n- Global rates proxies: BNDX, BWX, EMB\n\nMode A output contract is updated to include a Regional Scoreboard (US / Europe / Asia) and explicit cross-region coverage checks.\n\n## Notes\n\n- This skill is Druckenmiller-inspired and should never claim direct affiliation.\n- Keep style high-conviction but evidence-auditable.\n\nFile v1.1.11:_meta.json\n\n{\n  \"ownerId\": \"kn7d3hfagfaks9xk7natxyg2w981hqsy\",\n  \"slug\": \"stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\",\n  \"version\": \"1.1.11\",\n  \"publishedAt\": 1774573885751\n}\n\nFile v1.1.11:references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md\n\n# A-share Tape V1.1\n\nGoal: build a Stan-style A-share tape using mostly free and reasonably stable data.\n\nPrinciples:\n- Keep the daily tape focused on what changes the regime read.\n- Separate hard anchors from noisy confirmation signals.\n- Prefer data that is free, repeatable, and can survive source changes with fallback.\n\n## Tiering\n- Core = should be in the V1 daily tape\n- Confirm = useful confirmation layer\n- Optional = helpful but noisy or fragile\n- Avoid as core = do not let this drive the main thesis in V1\n\n---\n\n## 1) Internal Structure (Most Important)\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters in Stan terms | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| CSI300 vs CSI1000 | Core | China version of IWM/SPY; large vs small cap risk appetite | High | Tencent / Eastmoney / Yahoo proxies | Core breadth / risk-expansion read |\n| ChiNext vs CSI300 | Core | Growth vs core-beta proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney / Yahoo | Use for duration / growth appetite |\n| STAR50 vs CSI300 | Confirm | Higher-beta innovation-board confirmation | Medium | Eastmoney / Tencent / AkShare proxies | Useful, not strictly required in V1 |\n| Up/down stocks count | Core | Most direct breadth signal | Medium-High | Eastmoney / AkShare market breadth pages | Critical for diagnosing “index up but tape weak” |\n| Total turnover (Shanghai + Shenzhen combined turnover) | Core | Shows whether repair has real participation | High | Eastmoney / Tencent / AkShare | Pair with breadth, not alone |\n| Limit-up / limit-down counts | Optional | A-share emotion extreme gauge | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare | Emotion layer only |\n\n---\n\n## 2) Flow / Who Is Buying\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Northbound net flow (single day) | Core | Best free foreign-flow proxy | High | Eastmoney / AkShare HSGT endpoints | Must be read with continuity, not as a single print |\n| Northbound 3-day / 5-day continuity | Core | More Stan-like than one-day flow | High | Derived from the same northbound source | Prefer over raw daily number |\n| Northbound sector destination | Confirm | Shows whether foreign money is buying banks / consumer / tech | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare summaries | Great when available, not mandatory |\n| Margin financing balance change | Confirm | Retail leverage temperature | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare | Better as weekly / daily confirmation, not thesis anchor |\n| Credit-risk proxy basket (property developers / brokers / small-cap beta) | Confirm | A-share substitute for weak-credit tape; shows whether risk capital is willing to own fragile balance sheets | Medium | Eastmoney sector quotes + selected names | Prefer basket or spread-style read over one stock |\n| ETF subscriptions / redemptions | Confirm | Institutional demand for style buckets | Medium-Low | Fund issuer pages / Eastmoney | Good to add later |\n| Main-force net inflow | Optional | Can help with sector heat | Medium-Low | Eastmoney / web scrape | High noise, not a core anchor |\n\n---\n\n## 3) Sector / Single-name Leaders\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Property leaders (Vanke / Poly / CMSK) | Core | China credit-transmission proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Use as a group, not a single-stock story |\n| Banks: joint-stock vs big state banks | Core | Asset-quality / credit-belief proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Stronger than only watching the bank index |\n| Brokers (Eastmoney / CITIC / sector index) | Confirm | A-share sentiment amplifier | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Must confirm with turnover + breadth |\n| Construction machinery / cyclicals | Confirm | Real-demand / infrastructure lead indicator | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Good second-layer confirmation |\n| Transport / logistics / ports / highways | Confirm | China version of transport tape; shows whether goods flow and industrial demand are broadening | High | Eastmoney sector quotes / Tencent quotes | Prefer basket read over one name |\n| Commercial vehicles / heavy-truck proxy | Confirm | Best public proxy for truck tape in A-share style | Medium | Eastmoney / Tencent quotes on truck and auto-parts names | Use as a demand / credit proxy, not in isolation |\n| Moutai vs broad consumer | Confirm | Premium demand vs mass demand split | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Helps identify demand stratification |\n| Optional vs staple consumer split | Confirm | Tells whether the market is paying for discretionary recovery or hiding in defensive demand | High | Eastmoney consumer sector quotes / ETF proxies | Useful when consumer is central to the thesis |\n\n---\n\n## 4) China Liquidity / Policy Layer\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DR007 | Core | China equivalent of daily funding stress / ease | Medium | AkShare / interbank sources | Critical when a stable source exists |\n| Shibor 1W | Core | Simple local funding anchor | High | Shibor official / AkShare / web sources | Good free substitute if DR007 lags |\n| China 10Y yield | Core | Local duration / macro-pricing anchor | Medium-High | ChinaBond / AkShare / public yield sources | Daily or latest usable |\n| China 10Y-1Y curve slope | Core | Recovery pricing vs disbelief | Medium | Derived from China yields | Strong macro-weather anchor |\n| OMO net injection | Confirm | Shows whether PBoC is actively smoothing | Medium | PBoC site / summaries | Good desk-color input |\n| MLF / LPR changes | Confirm | Important policy-shift markers | High | Official releases | Event-driven, not daily necessity |\n\n---\n\n## 5) External Constraint Layer\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| USDCNY / USDCNH | Core | Most important external valuation constraint | High | Yahoo / Tencent FX / Stooq proxy | Must be in V1 |\n| CN-US 10Y spread | Confirm | External capital-pressure / FX-pressure read | Medium | Derived from China 10Y + UST 10Y | Strong if stable China yield feed exists |\n| HK China assets (HSCEI / FXI / KWEB) | Core | External confirmation of China beta | High | Yahoo / Tencent / Eastmoney / Stooq | Confirmation, not thesis by itself |\n| Copper vs property chain | Confirm | Real-demand validity test | Medium | SHFE copper / proxies + property leaders | Helps filter fake reflation |\n| VIX / iVIX | Confirm | Global panic vs local panic split | Medium | VIX free; iVIX availability varies | Optional in V1 if the local source is unstable |\n\n---\n\n## Recommended V1 A-share Daily Tape\n\n### Core anchors (must have)\n1. CSI300 vs CSI1000\n2. ChiNext vs CSI300\n3. Up/down counts\n4. Total turnover\n5. Northbound flow (day + 3d/5d continuity)\n6. USDCNY / USDCNH\n7. DR007 or Shibor 1W\n8. China 10Y and 10Y-1Y slope\n9. Property leader basket\n10. Joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n11. HK China assets confirmation (FXI / KWEB / HSCEI)\n\n### Confirmation layer\n12. Brokers + turnover confirmation\n13. Construction machinery / cyclicals\n14. Transport / logistics / heavy-truck proxy basket\n15. Moutai vs broad consumer\n16. Optional vs staple consumer split\n17. Credit-risk proxy basket (property / brokers / fragile beta)\n18. OMO / MLF / LPR event markers\n19. Margin financing balance change\n20. Copper vs property chain\n\n### Optional / emotion layer\n21. Limit-up / limit-down counts\n22. Main-force net inflow\n23. ETF subscriptions / redemptions\n\n---\n\n## Preferred A-share Second-order Chains\n\nUse at least one explicit transmission chain in every A-share morning brief.\n\n### Template A: FX constraint chain\nStronger dollar / USDCNY staying elevated\n-> lower threshold for foreign capital to stay cautious\n-> weaker northbound continuity\n-> broad-beta and small-cap growth fail to get incremental confirmation\n-> the market falls back to “certainty first,” where Moutai and offshore China leaders tend to outperform CSI1000-style beta.\n\n### Template B: Local liquidity chain\nShibor / FR007 declines\n-> local funding becomes cheaper\n-> growth valuations repair first\n-> if turnover and breadth do not confirm\n-> it is only structural repair, not broad market diffusion.\n\n### Template C: Credit transmission chain\nPolicy support / pro-property messaging appears\n-> first check property stocks and banks\n-> then check property sales, development investment, and credit structure\n-> if bonds and credit do not confirm\n-> equities are only trading expectation, not genuine expansion.\n\n---\n\n## How to Read It in Stan Style\n\n### If these align, upgrade toward “diffusion repair”\n- USDCNY stable to stronger CNY\n- Northbound flow positive and persistent\n- CSI1000 and ChiNext outperform CSI300\n- Breadth improves together with turnover\n- Joint-stock banks and property leaders stabilize together\n\n### If these align, stay in “structural divergence”\n- Index is stable but breadth is weak\n- Large caps hold while small caps lag\n- Northbound is inconsistent\n- HK China confirms only partially\n- Local funding is stable but credit-sensitive sectors do not follow\n- Property / transport / mass-consumer / weak-credit proxies fail to confirm the headline move\n\n### If these align, downgrade toward “defense / contraction”\n- USDCNY weakens sharply\n- Northbound turns persistently negative\n- CSI1000 / ChiNext lose leadership\n- Breadth deteriorates despite index resilience\n- Joint-stock banks and property leaders underperform again\n\n---\n\n## Honest V1 Boundary\n\nEven with a stronger A-share tape, this workflow still does not replace:\n- intraday tape feel in specific leaders\n- transcript nuance and company-guidance interpretation\n- execution decisions: exact name, exact level, exact size\n\nUse this tape to standardize first-layer environment judgment.\nLeave second-layer execution to the human.\n\nFile v1.1.11:references/core-panels-and-sources.md\n\n# Core Panels and Sources\n\nPurpose: keep one compact reference for the V1/VNext panel hierarchy, key indicators, and practical source mapping.\n\nUse this file when maintaining the skill, refining the data layer, or checking whether a panel belongs in the daily engine, weekly engine, or monthly background layer.\n\n## 1) Product scope\n\nThis workflow is a first-layer macro environment engine.\nIt helps with:\n- liquidity\n- rates\n- credit\n- FX\n- breadth / internal structure\n- A-share transmission\n- U.S. and China macro-to-execution translation\n\nIt does not replace second-layer execution judgment:\n- exact asset\n- exact level\n- exact size\n- discretionary trading nuance\n\n## 2) Daily engine: required layers\n\n### U.S. core\nUse these as the default P0 daily stack:\n- Fed net liquidity\n- ON RRP balance\n- 2s10s\n- 3m10y\n- 10Y TIPS real yield\n- HY OAS\n- DXY / dollar proxy\n- USDJPY\n- WTI\n- VIX\n- 10Y nominal yield\n- IWM / SPY\n- RSP / SPY\n- KRE / SPY\n- SPHB / SPLV\n\n### A-share core\nUse these as the default P0 daily stack:\n- USDCNY or USDCNH\n- northbound flow or valid proxy\n- CSI300 vs CSI1000\n- ChiNext vs CSI300\n- breadth and turnover\n- China liquidity anchor (DR007 or Shibor)\n- China rates curve proxy\n- property leader basket\n- joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n- HK / offshore China confirmation\n\n## 3) Weekly / monthly extensions\n\n### Weekly U.S.\nUseful confirmation layer:\n- initial jobless claims\n- 5Y5Y or breakeven inflation\n- EPS revision momentum\n- broader breadth metrics\n- housing / consumer high-frequency set\n- thematic ETF flow proxies\n- IG / CCC / EMB stress proxies\n\n### Weekly China\nUseful confirmation layer:\n- DR007 / Shibor persistence\n- China 10Y-1Y curve proxy\n- credit impulse proxy\n- property high-frequency sales\n- HK China assets confirmation\n\n### Monthly background\nUse for slower regime calibration:\n- QT progress\n- financial conditions index\n- ISM / PMI decomposition\n- NFIB / business confidence\n- China monthly credit impulse\n- China property investment and sales\n- global PMI split\n- SLOOS\n\n## 4) A-share transmission additions\n\n### Internal structure\nMost important A-share daily reads:\n- CSI300 vs CSI1000\n- ChiNext vs CSI300\n- breadth\n- turnover\n- northbound continuity\n\n### Flow / who is buying\nPrefer:\n- northbound day + continuity\n- margin financing change\n- style / sector destination when available\n- ETF style flow as confirm, not thesis anchor\n\nDaily stabilization rule:\n- if northbound truth is unavailable or upstream values are clearly invalid, replace it with a northbound proxy built from Stock Connect breadth, style relative strength, and offshore China-beta confirmation\n- do not keep northbound truth as a routine daily hard gap if the proxy is available\n\n### Sector / single-name baskets\nUse baskets, not isolated names:\n- property\n- joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n- brokers\n- machinery\n- transport / logistics\n- heavy-truck proxy\n- premium consumer vs mass consumer\n- credit-sensitive basket\n\nDaily proxy policy:\n- use these baskets to build both credit-risk proxy and industry-expression proxy when direct truth series are unstable\n- do not block the daily memo waiting for exact industry net-flow truth\n- treat true daily industry net-flow as enhancement, not hard dependency\n\n### Preferred A-share second-order chains\nAlways try to include at least one explicit chain, for example:\n- external FX constraint\n  -> threshold for foreign capital to return changes\n  -> northbound continuity changes\n  -> broad-beta / small-cap / growth relative strength shifts\n  -> sector expression rotates\n\n- local liquidity change\n  -> funding price changes\n  -> valuation repair or only structural repair\n  -> turnover and breadth either confirm or fail to confirm\n\n- credit transmission change\n  -> property / banks / credit-sensitive assets either confirm or fail to confirm\n  -> cyclical leadership either becomes viable or does not\n\n## 5) Domestic Demand / Real Economy Nowcast\n\n### A-share / China side\nUse a compressed daily format by default.\n\nDefault daily format:\n- Housing: weak / stabilizing / improving\n- Consumption: weak / mixed / improving\n- Logistics / Trade: weak / mixed / improving\n- Industrial Activity: weak / mixed / improving\n- Composite Read: one sentence only\n\nExpand the sub-blocks only when:\n1. the underlying data has just updated,\n2. the update changes the day’s thesis,\n3. the market is explicitly trading this layer.\n\nPreferred fields behind the compressed read:\n- Housing: core-city second-hand viewings / listings, 30-city new home weekly sales area, land purchase / premium rate or construction proxy\n- Consumption: CPCA passenger car sales, dealer inventory coefficient or premium consumption proxy, express delivery activity\n- Logistics / Trade: SCFI, port throughput, freight / external demand proxy\n- Industrial Activity: Daqin railway throughput, electricity usage, excavator domestic sales, steel production / steel price when available\n\nAlways end with:\n- Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak\n- implication for A-shares\n\n### U.S. side\nUse the same compact logic with local equivalents.\nDo not require all blocks to be true daily-frequency series; stable latest-official weekly/monthly public series are acceptable if they can be fetched reliably on each daily run.\n\n#### Housing\nDefault stable public core:\n- 30Y mortgage rate (`MORTGAGE30US`)\n- housing starts (`HOUST`)\n- building permits (`PERMIT`)\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- mortgage applications\n- new / existing home sales\n- homebuilder sentiment\n\n#### Consumption\nDefault stable public core:\n- retail sales (`RSAFS`)\n- total vehicle sales / SAAR (`TOTALSA`)\n- real personal consumption expenditure (`PCEC96`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- card / restaurant / travel proxies\n\n#### Logistics / Trade\nDefault stable public core:\n- freight transportation services index (`TSIFRGHT`)\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- rail / truck / freight / shipping proxies\n\n#### Industrial Activity\nDefault stable public core:\n- industrial production (`INDPRO`)\n- capacity utilization (`TCU`)\n- durable goods new orders (`DGORDER`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- ISM new orders\n- capex / machinery / energy demand proxies\n\n#### Fundamental Validation\nDefault stable public core:\n- corporate profits after tax (`CP`)\n- unit labor costs (`ULCNFB`)\n- labor productivity (`OPHNFB`)\n- valuation compatibility versus rates / real yields\n\nOptional enhanced layer:\n- public earnings season surprise summary\n- public guidance / revisions summary when reliably accessible\n\nUse this layer to answer:\n- is the profitability backdrop improving, flat, or deteriorating?\n- are margins under pressure?\n- is productivity offsetting that pressure?\n- is the move earnings-backed or just multiple expansion?\n\nAlways end with:\n- Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak\n- implication for U.S. equities\n\n## 6) Practical source mapping\n\n### U.S. / global\nUse the best available mix of:\n- FRED\n- Yahoo or Stooq style market proxies\n- official or widely used public sources\n\nKey examples:\n- Fed liquidity / rates / HY OAS / VIX / DXY: FRED preferred where possible\n- index / ETF / FX / commodity proxies: Yahoo / Stooq fallback mix\n- MOVE fallback: 10Y Treasury realized-volatility proxy from daily yield changes\n- JPY vol fallback: USDJPY 20-day realized volatility\n- earnings-revision breadth fallback: corporate profits + unit labor costs + productivity + sector relative-strength proxy\n\n### A-shares / China\nFor now, it is acceptable to document the primary operational source simply as:\n- akshare\n\nWhen some fields are unavailable, acceptable fallbacks are:\n- official webpages\n- public reports / PDFs\n- stable proxy indicators\n\n### General rule\nDo not hardcode data values in the skill.\nThe skill should define:\n- what to fetch\n- from where\n- update cadence\n- fallback or proxy\n- downgrade behavior when unavailable\n\n## 7) Data quality and downgrade rules\n\nIf data is incomplete:\n- keep the memo alive\n- explicitly name missing panels only when they are truly core and unfillable\n- reduce confidence\n- avoid fake precision\n- use a proxy when the proxy preserves the transmission logic\n\nField status labels:\n- ok\n- stale\n- proxy\n- evidence insufficient\n\n### Daily A-share stabilization rule\nThe daily A-share brief should not repeatedly surface the same structural missing items as hard gaps if stable proxies exist.\n\nApply these defaults:\n- northbound net-buy truth -> northbound proxy\n- property / LGFV spread truth -> credit-risk proxy in daily mode, true spread in weekly/monthly enhancement\n- direct industry net-flow truth -> industry-expression proxy\n\nOnly report `Evidence Gaps` for missing P0 fields that do not have an acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not report optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n### Daily U.S. stabilization rule\nThe daily U.S. brief should not repeatedly surface the same structural missing items as hard gaps if stable proxies exist.\n\nApply these defaults:\n- Europe breadth panel -> Europe breadth proxy\n- MOVE -> Treasury realized-volatility proxy\n- JPY 1M vol -> USDJPY 20d realized-volatility proxy\n- daily sell-side revisions breadth -> downgrade to weekly/monthly enhancement and replace in daily mode with a public fundamental-validation proxy\n\nOnly report `Evidence Gaps` for missing P0 fields that do not have an acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not report optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n## 8) News validation\n\nUse news validation as a verification layer, not as the regime engine.\n\nRules:\n- build regime from transmission and market evidence first\n- use news only to confirm, challenge, or explain the current thesis\n- include 2-4 headlines max\n- for each headline, state source, Supports / Conflicts / Noise, and one-line implication\n\n### A-share source priority\n1. Official / policy anchors\n   - State Council / China gov portal / PBOC / CSRC / NDRC / NBS / MOF / MIIT / MOFCOM / Customs / NEA / exchanges\n2. Market wires\n   - CLS / Shanghai Securities News / China Securities Journal / Securities Times / Yicai\n3. Sector verification\n   - CRIC / Cih-index / Beike Research / CPCA / Shanghai Shipping Exchange / State Post Bureau / NEA / industry associations\n\n### U.S. source priority\n1. Core market / macro press\n   - Bloomberg / Reuters / WSJ / FT / CNBC\n2. Official / policy\n   - Federal Reserve / Treasury / BLS / BEA / Census / CBOE\n3. Broader narrative context\n   - NYT / WaPo / AP / major sector press\n\nDo not let a single headline override the transmission framework.\n\n## 9) Output discipline\n\nAll final memos should preserve:\n- conclusion first\n- thesis before tape\n- compact panels, then integrated read\n- evidence anchors after the main memo\n- explicit falsification\n- no explicit trade orders\n\nUse three reading layers:\n1. decision layer\n2. reasoning layer\n3. evidence layer\n\n## 10) Language resolution\n\nResolve language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- session habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference\n- if account preference and session habit conflict repeatedly, ask once and persist\n- if ambiguity remains, default to the latest user message language\n- keep analytical depth equivalent across languages\n\nFile v1.1.11:skill-card.md\n\n## Description:\n\nThesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English for A-share and U.S. equity morning briefs, intraday alerts, close reviews, weekly regime resets, and pre-trade sanity checks.\n\nThis skill is ready for commercial/non-commercial use.\n\n## Publisher:\n\n[luckycatl](https://clawhub.ai/user/luckycatl)\n\n### License/Terms of Use:\n\nMIT-0\n\n## Use Case:\n\nExternal users and market-focused agents use this skill to turn public macro, liquidity, rates, credit, FX, sector, and breadth evidence into concise market research memos with regimes, best expressions, position bias, kill-switches, and watchlists. It is intended for research framing and workflow standardization, not investment advice or trade execution.\n\n### Deployment Geography for Use:\n\nGlobal\n\n## Known Risks and Mitigations:\n\nRisk: Outputs may be mistaken for investment advice or trading instructions.\n\nMitigation: Treat outputs as research framing only; the skill requires no explicit trade orders, human-owned execution decisions, and an investment-advice disclaimer.\n\nRisk: Optional financial-data dependencies can introduce dependency-supply-chain or compatibility risk.\n\nMitigation: Use a virtual environment, pin finshare and akshare versions, and disable finshare with FINSHARE_MODE=off when it is not needed.\n\nRisk: Public market data can be incomplete, stale, unavailable, or served through fallbacks and proxies.\n\nMitigation: Review evidence anchors, timestamps, field status labels, and DATA LIMITED downgrades before relying on the memo.\n\nRisk: Setting FRED_API_KEY sends the configured API key to FRED's API.\n\nMitigation: Set FRED_API_KEY only when the user is comfortable using FRED's service, and omit it when public CSV fallback is sufficient.\n\nRisk: Runtime snapshots are written to local storage.\n\nMitigation: Keep the default skill-local runtime directory or set STANLEY_RUNTIME_DIR to an explicit approved cache location.\n\n## Reference(s):\n\n- [ClawHub Skill Page](https://clawhub.ai/luckycatl/skills/stanley-druckenmiller-workflow)\n- [README](README.md)\n- [Core Panels and Sources](references/core-panels-and-sources.md)\n- [A-share Tape V1.1](references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md)\n\n## Skill Output:\n\n**Output Type(s):** [text, markdown, code, shell commands, configuration, guidance]\n\n**Output Format:** [Markdown narrative memos with optional shell commands, configuration snippets, and JSON data-panel files when explicitly requested.]\n\n**Output Parameters:** [1D]\n\n**Other Properties Related to Output:** [Outputs include evidence anchors, ISO8601 data timestamps, data-limited downgrades when coverage is incomplete, and a disclaimer that the content is research framework information rather than investment advice or trading instructions.]\n\n## Skill Version(s):\n\n1.1.11 (source: server release evidence and artifact published version)\n\n## Ethical Considerations:\n\nUsers should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.\n\nArchive v1.1.10: 6 files, 36502 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (150b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (38930b)\n\nFile v1.1.10:SKILL.md\n\n---\nname: stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\ndescription: Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Reviews, Weekly Regime Resets, and pre-trade sanity checks. Use when the user asks for an A-share morning brief, a U.S. morning brief, a pre-market view, an intraday state update, an end-of-day review, a weekly regime reset, a market-location read, portfolio-bias guidance, falsification conditions, market priority, industry priority, or a translation from liquidity, rates, credit, real-economy demand, price, structure, sector expression, fundamentals, and reflexivity into Regime, Best Expression, Position Bias, Kill-switch, and Watchlist.\n---\n\n# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\n> Published version: **1.1.10**\n\n## 1) Positioning\n\nUse a public-data process that approximates a Druckenmiller-style workflow.\nDo not claim private access or exact replication of the real person.\nDo not present inference as quoted fact.\n\nThis skill is a **macro-to-execution decision engine**, not a generic news summarizer.\n\nIts job is to:\n- identify the current regime\n- form a thesis first, then test it against tape\n- trace transmission from upstream conditions to downstream market expression\n- translate that into executable positioning language\n- define falsification clearly\n\nIts job is not to:\n- issue individual stock buy/sell calls\n- promise prediction accuracy\n- replace human execution judgment\n- dump raw data without synthesis\n\n### Product boundary\n- Strongest use: first-layer macro environment judgment\n- Human-owned layer: exact asset, exact entry, exact size, exact risk budget\n- Honest framing: AI watches the environment; the human decides how to bet\n\nWhen extending or maintaining the skill, read:\n- `references/core-panels-and-sources.md`\n- `references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md`\n\n---\n\n## 2) Output Style (Strict)\n\n- Output in the resolved user language.\n- Voice should feel like a live PM memo: direct, conditional, concise, human.\n- Depth parity rule: Chinese and English outputs should have equivalent analytical depth for the same request type.\n- Do not output JSON, YAML, code blocks, key-value dumps, or tool logs unless the user explicitly asks for machine format.\n- Markdown headings and bullets are allowed.\n- On first mention, explain each ticker or series in the user's language when that helps readability.\n- Facts and interpretation must be distinguishable.\n\n### Language Policy\nResolve output language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- current-session language habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference unless the user explicitly confirms a long-term change\n- if account preference and session habit conflict for multiple turns, ask once and persist the answer at the appropriate layer\n- if ambiguity remains, default to the language of the latest user message\n- preserve equivalent analytical depth across languages\n\n### Human PM texture\nKeep some human realness in the memo:\n- what I think is happening now\n- where I may be wrong first\n- crowding / pain-trade\n- first validation signal I care about next\n\nAvoid bland filler such as “overall” or “market sentiment is mixed” unless tied to concrete evidence.\n\n---\n\n## 3) Core Rules\n\n1. Thesis first, tape second.\n2. Rates and FX define the macro weather before equity opinions.\n3. Credit decides whether equity strength is high quality or fragile.\n4. Use probabilistic language; avoid false certainty.\n5. Always include falsification.\n6. Always include `data_timestamp` in ISO8601 with timezone.\n7. Distinguish clearly between:\n   - data\n   - inference\n   - action implication\n8. Never provide explicit trade orders:\n   - no entry price\n   - no stop\n   - no target\n   - no size percentage\n\n### Asset hierarchy rule\n1. Policy / liquidity / rates / FX = upstream\n2. Credit / market liquidity = middle confirmation layer\n3. Equities / sectors / breadth = downstream expression\n4. If downstream action contradicts upstream conditions, flag it as a divergence or possible regime transition immediately.\n\n### Fusion rule\nDo not write panel-by-panel commentary unless the user explicitly asks for a dashboard readout.\nPrefer a small number of causal throughlines.\nEvery non-appendix paragraph should ideally connect at least two different panels or markets.\n\n---\n\n## 4) Evidence Protocol\n\n### Evidence anchors\nDefault method: concentrated evidence anchors near the end.\n\nUse a section named `Evidence Anchors` with top 6-12 items.\nEach anchor should include:\n- panel or metric\n- direction or change\n- lookback window\n- timestamp\n- source\n\nIf a claim lacks required evidence, tag it:\n- `[EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT: missing X]`\n\n### Field status policy\nWhen a field is not fully usable, mark it as one of:\n- `ok`\n- `stale`\n- `proxy`\n- `evidence insufficient`\n\nNever silently treat missing data as confirmed evidence.\n\n---\n\n## 5) Data-Limited Downgrade Rule\n\nIf required dashboards are missing:\n- keep the memo alive\n- explicitly name missing panels\n- avoid fake precision\n- use valid proxy indicators where appropriate\n- reduce confidence and narrow conviction\n\nIf coverage is severely incomplete:\n- start with `DATA LIMITED`\n- list missing panels\n- restrict output to factual observations plus narrow inference\n- do not force a strong regime call\n\nExamples:\n- if northbound net buy is invalid, use Stock Connect breadth and relative style strength as a proxy\n- if domestic high-frequency demand data is missing, do not force a cyclical or recovery thesis\n- if a major real-world event is clearly dominating the session, start from that event and its market interpretation before moving into indicators\n\n---\n\n## 6) Output Modes\n\n### Mode A — Morning Brief\nUse for pre-market decision output.\n\nGoal:\n- answer how to see today\n- answer whether risk can be added\n- answer what the best expression is\n\nCore outputs:\n- Bottom line\n- Regime\n- Core Thesis\n- Best Expression\n- Position Bias\n- Kill-switch\n- Watchlist\n\n### Mode B — Intraday Alert\nUse only when a meaningful state change happens.\n\nFormat:\n- `what changed -> which layer it affects -> whether Position Bias should change`\n\nExamples:\n- `northbound conditions shifted from supportive to weak -> affects A-share market liquidity and internal structure -> Position Bias: add -> reduce`\n- `HY OAS widened further -> affects credit transmission -> Position Bias: starter -> reduce`\n\nDo not spam. No routine noise alerts.\n\n### Mode C — Close Review\nUse after market close.\n\nGoal:\n- identify which layer changed first\n- compare thesis vs tape\n- explain what invalidated or confirmed the prior view\n- define what matters next session\n\nCore outputs:\n- what was right\n- what broke first\n- whether kill-switch triggered\n- what changes tomorrow\n\n### Mode D — Weekly Regime Reset\nUse for weekly recalibration.\n\nGoal:\n- re-evaluate the dominant transmission chain\n- prevent daily noise from distorting the framework\n- reset priority markets, sectors, and bias\n\nCore outputs:\n- weekly regime\n- dominant transmission chain\n- best expression\n- risk reset conditions\n\n### Mode E — Pre-trade Consult (Optional)\nUse for sanity checks before a trade idea.\n\nGoal:\n- define the user's implied thesis\n- test that thesis against the current regime\n- identify the friction point and the missing confirmation\n\n### Mode F — Asset Divergence Monitor (Optional)\nUse when the user asks to watch one asset or one ticker.\n\nGoal:\n- compare narrative vs tape for the target asset\n- cross-check it against macro weather\n- assign a divergence status\n\n---\n\n## 7) Required Final Translation Fields\n\nEvery full Morning Brief should converge to:\n- one dominant thesis\n- Regime\n- Regime Bias\n- Best Expression\n- Position Bias\n- Kill-switch\n- Why now\n- Watchlist\n\n### Dominant-thesis rule\nEach daily brief must make one main bet in one sentence.\nSecondary observations may support, nuance, or challenge that thesis, but they should not compete with it.\nIf the brief sounds like several equally-important explanations at once, it is too diffuse.\n\n### Position Bias vocabulary\nUse only:\n- `flat`\n- `starter`\n- `add`\n- `press`\n- `reduce`\n- `exit`\n\n### Sizing ladder intent\nUse the ladder consistently:\n- `flat` = no meaningful risk exposure\n- `starter` = exploratory or early-confirmation risk\n- `add` = confirmed but still selective risk increase\n- `press` = thesis, tape, and structure are aligned strongly enough to materially increase risk\n- `reduce` = cut exposure, but not necessarily exit the view completely\n- `exit` = close the expression because the thesis failed or the kill-switch triggered\n\n---\n\n## 8) A-Share Transmission Framework\n\nUse this structure for A-share outputs.\n\n### 8.1 Big Events / Main Theme / Underpriced Risks [24H / 1–5D]\nPut this before Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nPurpose:\n- start with what actually happened in the real world\n- identify what the market is truly trading today\n- surface what matters but may still be underpriced or ignored\n- rank overnight events by actual transmission relevance to A-shares\n\nInclude:\n- Big Events\n- Main Theme\n- Underpriced / Ignored\n\nA-share ranking priority:\n1. Domestic policy, regulation, and domestic macro events\n2. Global central-bank, rates, and FX developments that materially change China-facing pricing\n3. Geopolitics and commodity moves that materially change inflation, growth, or risk appetite\n4. HK market, RMB, and offshore China assets\n5. Industry-specific catalysts only when they can realistically change today's A-share pricing\n\nEvent selection rule:\n- before writing any Morning Brief, identify the top 2-4 events from the last 24 hours that are still actively influencing market pricing today\n- do not include events that are merely recent but no longer being repriced\n- if an event is widely covered by major market media or clearly reflected in cross-asset pricing, omitting it is an error\n- do not hardcode recurring example headlines into the template\n\nMarket interpretation rule:\n- for each included event, always state:\n  - what happened\n  - how the market interpreted it\n  - what assets confirmed that interpretation\n  - why it matters for today's A-share pricing\n- if an event cannot be translated into a clear A-share implication, downgrade it to background context or omit it\n- if an older theme still matters but is no longer a fresh catalyst, move it into Background Context / Regime Context language instead of keeping it as a top event\n\nHeadline-driven ordering rule:\n- on headline-driven days, event interpretation must appear before indicator discussion\n- do not start this section with indicators, ETF tickers, or proxy jargon\n- if no single event dominates, explicitly say the session looks more structure-driven or positioning-driven\n- a brief that jumps straight into indicators while ignoring obvious market-moving events is incomplete\n\n### 8.2 Macro Position Snapshot\nPut this before Today’s Regime.\n\nPurpose:\n- answer clearly where the market sits in the macro cycle\n- separate the structural backdrop from the day’s tactical regime\n\nUse a fixed five-line format:\n- Growth\n- Inflation\n- Liquidity\n- Credit\n- Position in cycle\n\nEach line should be short and explicit.\nThe final line must summarize the macro location in one sentence.\n\n### 8.3 Today’s Regime\nPut this immediately after Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what regime are we in right now?\n\nInclude:\n- Bottom line\n- one dominant thesis in one sentence\n- Regime\n- Regime Bias\n- Confidence\n- Kill-switch\n- the asymmetry in one sentence when possible\n\nDo not use this section to re-list drivers or repeat the consensus/anti-consensus framing.\n\n### 8.4 Primary Drivers Today\nPlace this section immediately after Today’s Regime.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- which 2-3 variables are driving price today?\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 drivers\n- never include more than 3\n- each driver should include:\n  - current state\n  - directional tilt\n  - one-line reason it matters today\n- do not let this section turn into a full panel dump\n\n### 8.5 CAR Snapshot\nPlace this section immediately after Primary Drivers Today.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what does the market believe, where may it be wrong, and what follows next?\n\nKeep it compressed.\nUse three one-line bullets only:\n- Consensus\n- Anti-consensus\n- Second-order\n\nDo not repeat the regime definition or simply restate the driver list.\n\n### 8.6 Top Breakouts / Key Moves\nPlace this section near the top.\n\nPurpose:\n- surface the 1-3 most important new changes since the prior session\n- add edge and actionability to the memo\n- prevent the brief from becoming a purely structural framework without marginal information\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 items\n- every item must answer:\n  1. what changed\n  2. why it matters\n  3. what to watch next\n- only include changes that validate or challenge the dominant thesis, or represent a meaningful breakout, divergence, or regime-relevant move\n- do not include generic market summaries or repeated framework points\n\nOrdering rule (must keep the section stable and non-random):\n1. the move that most directly affects the dominant thesis or regime\n2. the move that most changes positioning / expression today\n3. the move that is most important to monitor next\n\nDo not sort by raw percentage move alone.\nSort by decision relevance.\n\n### 8.7 Internal Structure [Intraday / 1–10D]\nThis section is a standalone health-check layer, not a sub-item of transmission.\n\nRequired fields to inspect:\n- Breadth:\n  - advancers / decliners\n  - limit-up / limit-down\n  - new highs / new lows when available\n  - median stock return or equivalent money-making-effect proxy when available\n- Relative strength:\n  - CSI 300 vs CSI 1000\n  - ChiNext / STAR / main board when relevant\n  - growth vs value / dividend vs high-beta when relevant\n- Sector expression:\n  - top 5 industry gainers\n  - top 5 industry losers\n  - classify leadership as financial / cyclical / growth / defensive / mixed\n  - note whether leadership is broadening or narrowly clustered\n- Price / trend quality:\n  - turnover expansion or contraction versus the prior session\n  - whether breadth confirms the index move\n  - whether the move is a healthy diffusion, short squeeze, or weak rebound\n\nRules:\n- do not leave this section at the level of broad adjectives only\n- if sector and breadth data are available, the brief must mention them explicitly\n- if a rebound is led only by a narrow cluster, say so clearly\n- if breadth is strong but leadership is low quality, say so clearly\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read on whether the move is healthy diffusion or narrow clustering\n\n### 8.8 Best Expression & Position Bias\nInclude:\n- best long\n- best short / best avoid\n- Position Bias\n- Sizing Ladder\n- Trading Read / PM Notes\n\nUse Sizing Ladder to describe how conviction scales:\n- starter -> add -> press\n- or reduce -> exit when the thesis breaks\n\n### 8.9 What Would Change My Mind\nInclude:\n- IF / THEN conditions\n- turning-point requirements\n- what would move bias up or down the sizing ladder\n\n### 8.10 Macro Transmission\nUse the following substructure.\n\n#### 8.10.1 Global Liquidity & External Pricing\nFocus on:\n- dollar / external liquidity\n- global rates\n- commodities\n- global risk sentiment\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.2 China Policy & Monetary Conditions\nFocus on:\n- policy tone\n- OMO / MLF\n- DR007 / Shibor\n- China rates curve\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.3 Credit Transmission\nFocus on:\n- social financing / new credit / M2\n- property and LGFV credit stress when available\n- leverage proxies such as margin financing\n- daily credit-risk proxy when spread truth is unavailable\n\nDaily rule:\n- do not leave property/LGFV credit stress as a routine hard gap in the daily brief if a stable proxy exists\n- in daily mode, use a credit-risk proxy built from property leaders, joint-stock banks vs big banks, brokers, and other credit-sensitive baskets\n- treat true property/LGFV spread data as weekly or monthly enhancement unless a stable public daily source is available\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.4 Domestic Demand / Real Economy Nowcast\nFetch this section automatically before each A-share morning brief when data is available.\nDo not hardcode values into the skill.\n\nDaily rule:\n- keep this section compressed by default\n- do not expand every sub-block with full fields every day\n- default format should be:\n  - Housing: weak / stabilizing / improving\n  - Consumption: weak / mixed / improving\n  - Logistics / Trade: weak / mixed / improving\n  - Industrial Activity: weak / mixed / improving\n  - Composite Read: one sentence only\n\nExpand the sub-blocks only if one of the following is true:\n1. the underlying data has just updated\n2. the update changes today’s thesis\n3. the market is explicitly trading this layer\n\nPreferred fields behind the compressed read:\n- Housing: core-city second-hand viewings/listings, 30-city new home weekly sales area, land purchase/premium or construction proxy\n- Consumption: CPCA passenger car sales, dealer inventory or premium-consumption proxy, express delivery activity\n- Logistics / Trade: SCFI, port throughput, freight / external-demand proxy\n- Industrial Activity: Daqin railway throughput, electricity usage, excavator domestic sales, steel production / steel price when available\n\nAlways end with:\n- `Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak`\n- one-sentence implication for A-shares\n\n#### 8.10.5 A-Share Market Liquidity\nFocus on:\n- northbound flow or valid proxy when northbound fails\n- total market turnover and turnover delta versus the prior session\n- ETF flows when reliably available\n- leverage / margin\n- style flow\n- concentration versus diffusion in turnover when available\n\nDaily rule:\n- if northbound truth is unavailable or upstream values are clearly invalid, do not report it as a routine hard gap\n- use a northbound proxy built from Stock Connect breadth, core-vs-growth style relative strength, and offshore China-beta confirmation when available\n- do not discuss liquidity without at least referencing turnover and whether the tape expanded or contracted\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.6 Price / Trend\nFocus on:\n- broad indices\n- growth vs value\n- key slope / trend direction\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.7 Industry Expression\nFocus on:\n- which sectors best express the current regime\n- which sectors should be avoided\n- whether leadership is defensive, cyclical, growth, or mixed\n- top 5 industry gainers and top 5 industry losers when data is available\n- whether leadership is broad, rotational, or concentrated in one theme\n\nDaily rule:\n- do not require a stable daily 'industry net flow' truth series to produce this section\n- use industry-expression proxy from sector relative performance, basket leadership, and participation structure when direct industry fund-flow data is unstable\n- treat exact industry fund-flow truth as enhancement, not as a daily hard dependency\n- do not leave this section generic if sector ranking data is available\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.8 Fundamental Validation\nFocus on:\n- whether sector leadership has earnings / valuation support\n- whether price action is backed by real fundamentals\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 8.10.9 Reflexivity (Transmission view)\nFocus on:\n- crowding\n- positive reflexivity vs negative reflexivity\n- whether strength reinforces itself or starts to reverse on itself\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n### 8.11 Narrative vs Tape [1–10D]\nInclude:\n- Narrative\n- Tape\n- Transmission\n- Reflexivity (positive / negative / weakening feedback loop)\n\nThis section should answer:\n- what the market says\n- what the market is actually trading\n- whether price action confirms the dominant narrative\n- whether the narrative-price loop is self-reinforcing or self-reversing\n\n### 8.12 News Validation\nUse News Validation as a verification layer, not as the regime engine.\n\nRules:\n- form regime and thesis from transmission first\n- use news only to confirm, challenge, or explain the current thesis\n- include 2-4 headlines max\n- for each headline, always state:\n  - source\n  - whether it Supports / Conflicts / is just Noise\n  - one-line implication\n\nA-share source priority:\n1. Official / policy anchors\n   - State Council / China gov portal / PBOC / CSRC / NDRC / NBS / MOF / MIIT / MOFCOM / Customs / NEA / exchanges\n2. Market wires\n   - CLS / Shanghai Securities News / China Securities Journal / Securities Times / Yicai\n3. Sector verification\n   - CRIC / Cih-index / Beike Research / CPCA / Shanghai Shipping Exchange / State Post Bureau / NEA / industry associations\n\nDo not let a single headline override the transmission framework.\n\n### 8.13 Daily proxy policy (must stabilize output)\nFor the A-share daily brief, the following should not remain routine hard gaps when stable proxies exist:\n- northbound net-buy truth -> use northbound proxy\n- property / LGFV spread truth -> use credit-risk proxy in daily mode and move true spread confirmation to weekly/monthly enhancement\n- direct industry net-flow truth -> use industry-expression proxy\n\nOnly include an item in `Evidence Gaps` if it is a missing P0 field with no acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not list optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n### 8.14 Evidence Anchors\nKeep this after the main body.\nUse 8-12 anchors max.\n\n### 8.15 Data Panel Appendix\nPut the compact panel after the main memo.\nSuggested panels:\n- Policy & Liquidity\n- Credit & Stress\n- Domestic Demand\n- Market Structure\n\nDo not let the appendix dominate the memo.\n\n---\n\n## 9) U.S. Transmission Framework\n\nUse this structure for U.S. equity outputs.\n\n### 9.1 Big Events / Main Theme / Underpriced Risks [24H / 1–5D]\nPut this before Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nPurpose:\n- start with what actually happened in the real world\n- identify what the market is truly trading today\n- surface what matters but may still be underpriced or ignored\n- rank overnight events by actual transmission relevance to U.S. equities\n\nInclude:\n- Big Events\n- Main Theme\n- Underpriced / Ignored\n\nU.S. ranking priority:\n1. Domestic macro, policy, and rates developments that materially change U.S. asset pricing\n2. Geopolitics and commodities when they affect inflation, growth, or risk premia\n3. Other major central banks and FX when they feed back into U.S. rates, dollar, or global risk appetite\n4. Large-cap earnings / sector catalysts only when they are truly index-relevant\n\nEvent selection rule:\n- before writing any Morning Brief, identify the top 2-4 events from the last 24 hours that are still actively influencing market pricing today\n- do not include events that are merely recent but no longer being repriced\n- if an event is widely covered by major market media or clearly reflected in cross-asset pricing, omitting it is an error\n- do not hardcode recurring example headlines into the template\n- rank by actual market relevance each day\n\nMarket interpretation rule:\n- for each included event, always state:\n  - what happened\n  - how the market interpreted it\n  - what assets confirmed that interpretation\n  - why it matters for today's U.S. market pricing\n- if an older theme still matters but is no longer a fresh catalyst, move it into Background Context / Regime Context language instead of keeping it as a top event\n\nHeadline-driven ordering rule:\n- on headline-driven days, event interpretation must appear before indicator discussion\n- do not start this section with indicators, ETF tickers, or proxy jargon\n- if no single event dominates, explicitly say the session looks more structure-driven or positioning-driven\n- a brief that jumps straight into indicators while ignoring obvious market-moving events is incomplete\n\n### 9.2 Macro Position Snapshot\nPut this before Today’s Regime.\n\nPurpose:\n- answer clearly where the market sits in the macro cycle\n- separate the structural backdrop from the day’s tactical regime\n\nUse a fixed five-line format:\n- Growth\n- Inflation\n- Liquidity\n- Credit\n- Position in cycle\n\nEach line should be short and explicit.\nThe final line must summarize the macro location in one sentence.\n\n### 9.3 Today’s Regime\nPut this immediately after Macro Position Snapshot.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what regime are we in right now?\n\nInclude:\n- Bottom line\n- one dominant thesis in one sentence\n- Regime\n- Regime Bias\n- Confidence\n- Kill-switch\n- the asymmetry in one sentence when possible\n\nDo not use this section to re-list drivers or repeat the consensus/anti-consensus framing.\n\n### 9.4 Primary Drivers Today\nPlace this section immediately after Today’s Regime.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- which 2-3 variables are driving price today?\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 drivers\n- never include more than 3\n- each driver should include:\n  - current state\n  - directional tilt\n  - one-line reason it matters today\n- do not let this section turn into a full panel dump\n\n### 9.5 CAR Snapshot\nPlace this section immediately after Primary Drivers Today.\n\nThis section answers one question only:\n- what does the market believe, where is the thesis most vulnerable, and what follows next?\n\nKeep it compressed.\nUse three one-line bullets only:\n- Consensus\n- Open Attack Surface\n- Second-order\n\nDo not repeat the regime definition or simply restate the driver list.\nDo not force a fake anti-consensus view here. This slot should identify the weakest part of the thesis or the most attackable assumption, not manufacture a contrarian take for its own sake.\n\n### 9.6 Top Breakouts / Key Moves\nPlace this section near the top.\n\nPurpose:\n- surface the 1-3 most important new changes since the prior session\n- add edge and actionability to the memo\n- prevent the brief from becoming a purely structural framework without marginal information\n\nRules:\n- include at most 3 items\n- every item must answer:\n  1. what changed\n  2. why it matters\n  3. what to watch next\n- only include changes that validate or challenge the dominant thesis, or represent a meaningful breakout, divergence, or regime-relevant move\n- do not include generic market summaries or repeated framework points\n\nOrdering rule (must keep the section stable and non-random):\n1. the move that most directly affects the dominant thesis or regime\n2. the move that most changes positioning / expression today\n3. the move that is most important to monitor next\n\nDo not sort by raw percentage move alone.\nSort by decision relevance.\n\n### 9.7 Internal Structure [Intraday / 1–10D]\nThis section is a standalone health-check layer, not a sub-item of transmission.\n\nRequired fields to inspect:\n- Breadth:\n  - RSP / SPY\n  - IWM / SPY\n  - SPHB / SPLV\n  - whether equal-weight and high-beta confirm the index move\n- Relative strength:\n  - SPX / NDQ / RTY relative behavior\n  - growth vs defensives\n  - cyclicals vs defensives when relevant\n- Sector expression:\n  - top 5 sector gainers\n  - top 5 sector losers\n  - whether leadership is broad, rotational, or narrow mega-cap concentration\n- U.S. leading market-internal basket (must inspect when relevant):\n  - Russell 2000 / IWM as small-cap risk appetite proxy\n  - homebuilders (XHB / ITB)\n  - transports / trucking (IYT)\n  - retail (XRT)\n  - regional banks (KRE)\n  - industrial metals / copper proxy (HG=F or equivalent)\n  - explicit note on whether these baskets confirm or contradict the thesis\n- Price / trend quality:\n  - whether breadth confirms the index move\n  - whether credit confirms the move\n  - whether the tape looks like healthy diffusion, short squeeze, weak rebound, or trend continuation\n\nRules:\n- do not leave this section at the level of broad adjectives only\n- if sector and ratio data are available, the brief must mention them explicitly\n- if the market is being held up by mega-cap concentration, say so clearly\n- if small-caps or equal-weight fail to confirm the move, say so clearly\n- treat the U.S. leading market-internal basket as economic telltales, not optional side notes\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read on whether the move is healthy diffusion or narrow clustering\n\n### 9.8 Best Expression & Position Bias\nInclude:\n- best long\n- best short\n- best avoid\n- Position Bias\n- Sizing Ladder\n- PM Notes / Trading Read\n\nUse Sizing Ladder to describe how conviction scales:\n- starter -> add -> press\n- or reduce -> exit when the thesis breaks\n\n### 9.9 What Would Change My Mind\nInclude:\n- IF / THEN triggers\n- turning-point conditions\n- risk re-rating triggers\n- what would move bias up or down the sizing ladder\n\n### 9.10 Macro Transmission\nUse the following substructure.\n\n#### 9.10.1 Fed / Policy & Liquidity\nFocus on:\n- Fed net liquidity\n- ON RRP\n- balance sheet / reserves / QT context\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated liquidity read\n\n#### 9.10.2 Rates & FX Conditions\nFocus on:\n- US 2Y / 10Y\n- 2s10s / 3m10y\n- 10Y TIPS real yield\n- DXY / EURUSD / USDJPY\n- MOVE when directly available, otherwise use a Treasury realized-volatility proxy from 10Y yield changes\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated rates & FX read\n\n#### 9.10.3 Credit Transmission\nFocus on:\n- HY OAS\n- IG OAS if available\n- HYG / SPY\n- KRE / SPY\n- homebuilders, transports, and retail as credit-sensitive confirmation baskets when relevant\n\nRules:\n- when the thesis depends on tightening risk, recession risk, or credit deterioration, explicitly check whether regional banks, homebuilders, transports, retail, and copper are confirming or contradicting the view\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated credit read\n\n#### 9.10.4 Domestic Demand / Real Economy Nowcast\nFetch this section automatically before each U.S. morning brief.\nDo not default this entire section to `EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT` if stable latest-official public data is available.\nIt is acceptable to use the latest official weekly or monthly reading, refreshed on each daily run.\nKeep the write-up compact.\n\n##### Housing\nDefault stable public fields:\n- 30Y mortgage rate (`MORTGAGE30US`)\n- housing starts (`HOUST`)\n- building permits (`PERMIT`)\n\nOptional add-ons when reliably available:\n- mortgage applications\n- new / existing home sales\n- homebuilder sentiment\n\nOutput:\n- 2-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Consumption\nDefault stable public fields:\n- retail sales (`RSAFS`)\n- total vehicle sales / SAAR (`TOTALSA`)\n- real personal consumption expenditure (`PCEC96`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons when reliably available:\n- card / restaurant / travel proxies\n\nOutput:\n- 2-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Logistics / Trade\nDefault stable public fields:\n- freight transportation services index (`TSIFRGHT`)\n- trade / shipping proxy when reliably available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- rail / truck / freight / port / shipping proxies\n\nOutput:\n- 1-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Industrial Activity\nDefault stable public fields:\n- industrial production (`INDPRO`)\n- capacity utilization (`TCU`)\n- durable goods new orders (`DGORDER`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- ISM new orders\n- capex / machinery / energy demand proxies\n\nOutput:\n- 2-3 key fields\n- one-line read\n\n##### Composite Read\nAlways end with:\n- `Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak`\n- implications for U.S. equities:\n  - if only consumption is firm -> narrow support, not broad cyclical expansion\n  - if housing + industrial + logistics improve together -> broader growth re-acceleration\n  - if all remain weak -> favor quality / defense / large-cap balance-sheet strength\n\n#### 9.10.5 U.S. Market Liquidity\nFocus on:\n- ETF flow proxies\n- volume / participation\n- breadth\n- positioning / crowdedness proxies\n- whether equal-weight, small-caps, and high-beta are confirming the move\n\nDaily rule:\n- do not discuss U.S. market liquidity without at least referencing whether breadth and participation confirm the index move\n- if the move is driven primarily by mega-cap concentration, say so explicitly\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 9.10.6 Price / Trend\nFocus on:\n- SPX / NDQ / RTY\n- major factor trend\n- key levels / slope\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 9.10.7 Sector Expression\nFocus on:\n- Tech\n- Financials\n- Energy\n- Industrials\n- Defensives\n- other regime-relevant sectors\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n#### 9.10.8 Fundamental Validation\nDo not default this block to `EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT` if stable public profitability and margin proxies are available.\n\nDefault stable public core:\n- corporate profits after tax (`CP`)\n- unit labor costs (`ULCNFB`)\n- labor productivity (`OPHNFB`)\n- valuation compatibility versus rates / real yields\n\nOptional enhanced layer when a stable public source is available:\n- earnings season surprise summary\n- guidance breadth / revisions summary\n\nFocus on:\n- whether profitability backdrop is improving, flat, or deteriorating\n- whether margin pressure is easing or worsening\n- whether productivity offsets cost pressure\n- whether price is being driven by earnings or just multiple expansion\n\nOutput:\n- 2-4 compact fields\n- one integrated read\n\nIf only slow-moving official fundamental data is available, still provide a compact read from those latest official values instead of leaving the entire section empty.\n\n#### 9.10.9 Reflexivity (Transmission view)\nFocus on:\n- crowding\n- vol/gamma regime if available\n- positive vs negative reflexivity\n- if JPY implied volatility is unavailable, use USDJPY 20-day realized volatility as the default proxy for carry-stress temperature\n\nOutput:\n- one integrated read\n\n### 9.11 Narrative vs Tape [1–10D]\nInclude:\n- Narrative\n- Tape\n- Transmission\n- Reflexivity (positive / negative / weakening feedback loop)\n\nThis section should answer:\n- what the market says\n- what the market is actually trading\n- whether price action confirms the dominant narrative\n- whether the narrative-price loop is self-reinforcing or self-reversing\n\n### 9.12 News Validation\nUse News Validation as a verification layer, not as the regime engine.\n\nRules:\n- form regime and thesis from transmission first\n- use news only to confirm, challenge, or explain the current thesis\n- include 2-4 headlines max\n- for each headline, always state:\n  - source\n  - whether it Supports / Conflicts / is just Noise\n  - one-line implication\n\nU.S. source priority:\n1. Core market / macro press\n   - Bloomberg / Reuters / WSJ / FT / CNBC\n2. Official / policy\n   - Federal Reserve / Treasury / BLS / BEA / Census / CBOE\n3. Broader narrative context\n   - NYT / WaPo / AP / major sector press\n\nDo not let a single headline override the transmission framework.\n\n### 9.13 Daily proxy policy (must stabilize output)\nFor the U.S. daily brief, the following should not remain routine hard gaps when a stable proxy exists:\n- Europe breadth panel -> use Europe breadth proxy\n- direct MOVE series -> use Treasury realized-volatility proxy\n- JPY 1M vol -> use USDJPY realized-volatility proxy\n- public daily sell-side revisions breadth -> downgrade to enhancement layer and use fundamental-validation proxy in daily mode\n\nOnly include an item in `Evidence Gaps` if it is a missing P0 field with no acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not list optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n### 9.14 Evidence Anchors\nUse 8-12 anchors max.\n\n### 9.15 Data Panel Appendix\nSuggested panels:\n- Fed / Policy & Liquidity\n- Credit & Stress\n- FX / Macro Shock\n- Domestic Demand / Real Economy\n- Breadth / Market Structure\n\n---\n\n## 10) Data Policy\n\n### A-shares\nPrimary operational source in V1 can be documented simply as:\n- `akshare`\n\nWhen some fields are unavailable, it is acceptable to use:\n- official webpages\n- public reports / PDFs\n- valid proxy indicators\n\n### U.S.\nUse the best available mix of:\n- FRED\n- Stooq / Yahoo / similar market proxies\n- official or widely used public sources\n\n### Practical data rule\nThese fields are **inputs to be auto-fetched before each brief**, not values to hardcode into the skill text.\nThe skill should define:\n- what to fetch\n- from where\n- how often it updates\n- what fallback or proxy is acceptable\n- what to do when it fails\n\n---\n\n## 11) Writing Rules\n\n### Conclusion first\nAlways front-load:\n- big events / main theme / underpriced risks\n- regime\n- one dominant thesis\n- primary drivers today\n- best expression\n- position bias\n- falsification\n\n### Compress data, then interpret\nPrefer:\n- compact panel\n- one integrated read\n- one-line status blocks when a layer is slow-moving\n\nAvoid:\n- one paragraph per data point\n- repetitive `signal:` after every bullet\n- verbose daily expansion of slow-moving nowcast layers\n\n### Reading hierarchy\nUse three layers:\n1. decision layer\n2. reasoning layer\n3. evidence layer\n\nMeaning:\n- sections 1-4 = what to do\n- transmission section = why\n- evidence anchors / appendix = proof\n\n### Preserve human PM texture\nKeep some human color in:\n- Trading Read / PM Notes\n- What Would Change My Mind\n- crowding / pain-trade commentary\n\n### Proxy language rule\nWhen using a proxy, translate it into judgment language in the final memo.\nDo not expose raw system phrasing unless the user explicitly asks for implementation detail.\nPrefer:\n- “Stock Connect breadth still looks weak”\n- “credit-sensitive proxies are not confirming”\n- “sector leadership remains defensive”\n\nAvoid:\n- “northbound proxy says…”\n- “industry-expression proxy says…”\n- “credit-risk proxy says…”\n\nDo not let the memo become a sterile database dump.\n\n---\n\n## 12) Honest Limitations\n\nDo not imply that the skill fully reproduces a live trading desk.\n\nExamples of what it cannot fully replace:\n- single-name leader stock tape reading\n- transcript nuance from one sentence in a call\n- real-time relative-value reads inside fragile credit or sector baskets\n- execution-layer decisions: exact asset, exact level, exact size\n\nWhen users ask if this is “real Stan”, answer in two layers:\n1. The skill can meaningfully help with first-layer macro environment judgment.\n2. The human still owns second-layer execution judgment.\n\n---\n\n## 13) Confidence Mapping\n\n- high: most panels align and data coverage is complete\n- medium: mixed signals or proxy data exists\n- low: conflicting signals or major panel gaps\n\n---\n\n## 14) Safety Footer\n\nAlways append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n- `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\normation and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n owns second-layer execution judgment.\n\n---\n\n## 13) Confidence Mapping\n\n- high: most panels align and data coverage is complete\n- medium: mixed signals or proxy data exists\n- low: conflicting signals or major panel gaps\n\n---\n\n## 14) Safety Footer\n\nAlways append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n- `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n\nFile v1.1.10:README.md\n\n# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\nThesis-driven market analysis skill for OpenClaw.\n\nThis skill is designed for Druckenmiller-inspired macro/equity thinking with a live PM memo voice:\n- Liquidity and rates first\n- Consensus vs variant explicitly separated\n- D1/D2 (first derivative / second derivative) regime logic\n- Evidence anchors and safety disclaimers\n\nCurrent product framing:\n- Goal: hand most repetitive monitoring work to the machine and leave the highest-value judgment to the human.\n- V1 scope: US-led macro engine + China / A-share transmission layer.\n- Honest limitation: the skill can help with first-layer macro judgment, not fully replace second-layer execution judgment.\n- Core panels and source reference: `references/core-panels-and-sources.md`\n- A-share tape design reference: `references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md`\n\n## What This Skill Produces\n\nDepending on trigger, it can generate:\n- AM morning brief (thesis + validation)\n- EOD wrap\n- Weekly review\n- Monthly regime review\n- Pre-trade thesis collision check\n- Asset divergence monitor\n\nAll outputs are narrative and decision-oriented (not raw JSON dumps).\n\n## Folder Structure\n\n```text\nstanley-druckenmiller-workflow/\n  SKILL.md\n  README.md\n  references/\n    core-panels-and-sources.md\n    a-share-tape-v1_1.md\n  scripts/\n    market_panels.py\n```\n\n## Data Source Fallback (updated)\n\n`market_panels.py` now has two layers:\n\n### Global / cross-asset layer\nPer symbol, the default order is:\n1. finshare (default `first` mode)\n2. Yahoo chart API\n3. Stooq CSV\n4. FRED proxy mapping\n5. Local cache\n\n### A-share structure layer\nA-share internal structure now uses **AkShare** when available, mainly for:\n- northbound flow\n- Shibor / China government bond yields\n- margin financing and securities lending\n- property-chain, transport, consumer-tiering, and credit-sensitive proxy baskets\n\n### Runtime cache scope (security fix)\nBy default, `market_panels.py` now writes cache files only inside the skill directory:\n- `stanley-druckenmiller-workflow/.runtime/market-snapshots/`\n\nIt no longer writes to a workspace-level `memory/` directory by default.\n\nIf you explicitly want a different runtime/cache directory, set:\n\n```bash\nexport STANLEY_RUNTIME_DIR=/your/explicit/runtime/path\n```\n\nIf unset, the script stays confined to the skill-local runtime folder.\n\n### Minimal finshare integration (optional)\n\nDefault mode is `first`:\n- try finshare first\n- if finshare fails, fall back to Yahoo / Stooq / FRED / Cache\n- use `auto` to switch back to “Yahoo first, finshare as fallback”\n\n#### 1) Install optional dependencies\n\n```bash\npip install finshare akshare\n```\n\n#### 2) Enable / disable modes\n\n- CLI arguments (single run)\n\n```bash\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode first\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode auto\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode off\n```\n\n- Environment variables (default global behavior)\n\n```bash\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=first  # default: prefer finshare\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=auto   # Yahoo first, finshare as fallback\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=off    # disable finshare completely\n```\n\n- FRED API key (optional, improves macro-series stability)\n\n```bash\nexport FRED_API_KEY=\"<your_fred_api_key>\"\n```\n\n> If both CLI arguments and environment variables are present, `--finshare-mode` takes precedence.\n\n#### 3) Rollback\n\nIf compatibility issues appear, roll back to “no finshare” mode:\n\n```bash\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=off\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --output /tmp/stanley-panels.json\n```\n\nThis restores the workflow to: Yahoo -> Stooq -> FRED -> Cache, with no finshare dependency.\n\n## Core Design Principles\n\n1. Public data only (no private-info claims)\n2. No explicit trade orders (no entry, stop, target, size)\n3. Probabilistic language over certainty\n4. Facts and interpretation separated\n5. Mandatory fields:\n   - what_would_change_my_mind\n   - data_timestamp (ISO8601)\n6. If data is missing, downgrade safely (DATA LIMITED)\n\n## Language Resolution Policy\n\nResolve output language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- session habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference unless explicitly confirmed\n- if account preference and session habit conflict across multiple turns, ask once and persist at the appropriate layer\n- if ambiguity remains, default to the language of the latest user message\n- preserve equivalent analytical depth across languages\n\n## Triggers and Modes\n\n- Mode A (AM brief):\n  - `morning brief`\n  - `macro update`\n  - `analyze the market with Stan-style workflow`\n  - `how should I view today`\n\n- Mode B (EOD wrap):\n  - `EOD`\n  - `close review`\n  - `today's market recap`\n\n- Mode C (Weekly):\n  - `weekly brief`\n  - `weekly review`\n  - `how to view next week`\n\n- Mode D (Pre-trade consult):\n  - `pre-trade check`\n  - `should I buy/sell`\n  - `sanity-check this trade`\n\n- Mode E (Monthly):\n  - `monthly brief`\n  - `monthly review`\n  - `regime review`\n\n- Mode F (13F rationale):\n  - `13F`\n  - `why did he buy XLF`\n  - `Q3 to Q4 holdings changes`\n\n- Mode G (Asset divergence):\n  - `watch [TICKER]`\n  - `check divergence for [TICKER]`\n  - `asset divergence alert`\n\n## Evidence and Safety Contract\n\n- Include `Evidence anchors` section (top 6-12; Mode G: 3-5)\n- Each anchor should include:\n  - panel/metric\n  - direction/change\n  - lookback window\n  - timestamp\n  - source\n- Missing evidence must be tagged:\n  - `[EVIDENCE INSUFFICIENT: missing X]`\n\nSafety footer (always append):\n- append the standard disclaimer in the resolved user language:\n  `Disclaimer: The above content is research framework information and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions.`\n\n## Local Validation Checklist (Before Publish)\n\n1. `SKILL.md` frontmatter valid (`name`, `description`, metadata)\n2. Trigger words route to expected mode\n3. Output contains mandatory fields\n4. DATA LIMITED behavior works when data is missing\n5. No explicit trading instructions in output\n6. Chinese and English depth parity is preserved\n\n## Publish Checklist (ClawHub)\n\nDo this only when you are ready to publish.\n\n1. Login:\n\n```bash\nclawhub login\nclawhub whoami\n```\n\n2. Optional dry run checks:\n\n```bash\nclawhub list\n```\n\n3. Publish command template:\n\n```bash\nclawhub publish ./skills/stanley-druckenmiller-workflow \\\n  --slug stanley-druckenmiller-workflow \\\n  --name \"Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\" \\\n  --version 1.0.0 \\\n  --changelog \"Initial public release: thesis-driven macro workflow with A-G modes, evidence protocol, and safe downgrade behavior.\"\n```\n\n4. Verify result:\n\n- Confirm package page on ClawHub\n- Install from a clean env and run one trigger from Mode A and one from Mode G\n\n## Versioning Suggestion\n\n- Start: `1.0.0`\n- Behavior changes in output contract: bump minor (`1.1.0`)\n- Trigger or schema breaking changes: bump major (`2.0.0`)\n\n## Global Macro Expansion (v2 in progress)\n\nThe skill now includes global proxy panels in `scripts/market_panels.py`:\n- Global equities: FEZ, EWJ, FXI, EWH, EEM, VGK\n- Global FX: EURUSD=X, USDJPY=X, USDCNH=X\n- Global rates proxies: BNDX, BWX, EMB\n\nMode A output contract is updated to include a Regional Scoreboard (US / Europe / Asia) and explicit cross-region coverage checks.\n\n## Notes\n\n- This skill is Druckenmiller-inspired and should never claim direct affiliation.\n- Keep style high-conviction but evidence-auditable.\n\nFile v1.1.10:_meta.json\n\n{\n  \"ownerId\": \"kn7d3hfagfaks9xk7natxyg2w981hqsy\",\n  \"slug\": \"stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\",\n  \"version\": \"1.1.10\",\n  \"publishedAt\": 1774447203647\n}\n\nFile v1.1.10:references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md\n\n# A-share Tape V1.1\n\nGoal: build a Stan-style A-share tape using mostly free and reasonably stable data.\n\nPrinciples:\n- Keep the daily tape focused on what changes the regime read.\n- Separate hard anchors from noisy confirmation signals.\n- Prefer data that is free, repeatable, and can survive source changes with fallback.\n\n## Tiering\n- Core = should be in the V1 daily tape\n- Confirm = useful confirmation layer\n- Optional = helpful but noisy or fragile\n- Avoid as core = do not let this drive the main thesis in V1\n\n---\n\n## 1) Internal Structure (Most Important)\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters in Stan terms | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| CSI300 vs CSI1000 | Core | China version of IWM/SPY; large vs small cap risk appetite | High | Tencent / Eastmoney / Yahoo proxies | Core breadth / risk-expansion read |\n| ChiNext vs CSI300 | Core | Growth vs core-beta proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney / Yahoo | Use for duration / growth appetite |\n| STAR50 vs CSI300 | Confirm | Higher-beta innovation-board confirmation | Medium | Eastmoney / Tencent / AkShare proxies | Useful, not strictly required in V1 |\n| Up/down stocks count | Core | Most direct breadth signal | Medium-High | Eastmoney / AkShare market breadth pages | Critical for diagnosing “index up but tape weak” |\n| Total turnover (Shanghai + Shenzhen combined turnover) | Core | Shows whether repair has real participation | High | Eastmoney / Tencent / AkShare | Pair with breadth, not alone |\n| Limit-up / limit-down counts | Optional | A-share emotion extreme gauge | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare | Emotion layer only |\n\n---\n\n## 2) Flow / Who Is Buying\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Northbound net flow (single day) | Core | Best free foreign-flow proxy | High | Eastmoney / AkShare HSGT endpoints | Must be read with continuity, not as a single print |\n| Northbound 3-day / 5-day continuity | Core | More Stan-like than one-day flow | High | Derived from the same northbound source | Prefer over raw daily number |\n| Northbound sector destination | Confirm | Shows whether foreign money is buying banks / consumer / tech | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare summaries | Great when available, not mandatory |\n| Margin financing balance change | Confirm | Retail leverage temperature | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare | Better as weekly / daily confirmation, not thesis anchor |\n| Credit-risk proxy basket (property developers / brokers / small-cap beta) | Confirm | A-share substitute for weak-credit tape; shows whether risk capital is willing to own fragile balance sheets | Medium | Eastmoney sector quotes + selected names | Prefer basket or spread-style read over one stock |\n| ETF subscriptions / redemptions | Confirm | Institutional demand for style buckets | Medium-Low | Fund issuer pages / Eastmoney | Good to add later |\n| Main-force net inflow | Optional | Can help with sector heat | Medium-Low | Eastmoney / web scrape | High noise, not a core anchor |\n\n---\n\n## 3) Sector / Single-name Leaders\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Property leaders (Vanke / Poly / CMSK) | Core | China credit-transmission proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Use as a group, not a single-stock story |\n| Banks: joint-stock vs big state banks | Core | Asset-quality / credit-belief proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Stronger than only watching the bank index |\n| Brokers (Eastmoney / CITIC / sector index) | Confirm | A-share sentiment amplifier | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Must confirm with turnover + breadth |\n| Construction machinery / cyclicals | Confirm | Real-demand / infrastructure lead indicator | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Good second-layer confirmation |\n| Transport / logistics / ports / highways | Confirm | China version of transport tape; shows whether goods flow and industrial demand are broadening | High | Eastmoney sector quotes / Tencent quotes | Prefer basket read over one name |\n| Commercial vehicles / heavy-truck proxy | Confirm | Best public proxy for truck tape in A-share style | Medium | Eastmoney / Tencent quotes on truck and auto-parts names | Use as a demand / credit proxy, not in isolation |\n| Moutai vs broad consumer | Confirm | Premium demand vs mass demand split | High | Tencent / Eastmoney quotes | Helps identify demand stratification |\n| Optional vs staple consumer split | Confirm | Tells whether the market is paying for discretionary recovery or hiding in defensive demand | High | Eastmoney consumer sector quotes / ETF proxies | Useful when consumer is central to the thesis |\n\n---\n\n## 4) China Liquidity / Policy Layer\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DR007 | Core | China equivalent of daily funding stress / ease | Medium | AkShare / interbank sources | Critical when a stable source exists |\n| Shibor 1W | Core | Simple local funding anchor | High | Shibor official / AkShare / web sources | Good free substitute if DR007 lags |\n| China 10Y yield | Core | Local duration / macro-pricing anchor | Medium-High | ChinaBond / AkShare / public yield sources | Daily or latest usable |\n| China 10Y-1Y curve slope | Core | Recovery pricing vs disbelief | Medium | Derived from China yields | Strong macro-weather anchor |\n| OMO net injection | Confirm | Shows whether PBoC is actively smoothing | Medium | PBoC site / summaries | Good desk-color input |\n| MLF / LPR changes | Confirm | Important policy-shift markers | High | Official releases | Event-driven, not daily necessity |\n\n---\n\n## 5) External Constraint Layer\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| USDCNY / USDCNH | Core | Most important external valuation constraint | High | Yahoo / Tencent FX / Stooq proxy | Must be in V1 |\n| CN-US 10Y spread | Confirm | External capital-pressure / FX-pressure read | Medium | Derived from China 10Y + UST 10Y | Strong if stable China yield feed exists |\n| HK China assets (HSCEI / FXI / KWEB) | Core | External confirmation of China beta | High | Yahoo / Tencent / Eastmoney / Stooq | Confirmation, not thesis by itself |\n| Copper vs property chain | Confirm | Real-demand validity test | Medium | SHFE copper / proxies + property leaders | Helps filter fake reflation |\n| VIX / iVIX | Confirm | Global panic vs local panic split | Medium | VIX free; iVIX availability varies | Optional in V1 if the local source is unstable |\n\n---\n\n## Recommended V1 A-share Daily Tape\n\n### Core anchors (must have)\n1. CSI300 vs CSI1000\n2. ChiNext vs CSI300\n3. Up/down counts\n4. Total turnover\n5. Northbound flow (day + 3d/5d continuity)\n6. USDCNY / USDCNH\n7. DR007 or Shibor 1W\n8. China 10Y and 10Y-1Y slope\n9. Property leader basket\n10. Joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n11. HK China assets confirmation (FXI / KWEB / HSCEI)\n\n### Confirmation layer\n12. Brokers + turnover confirmation\n13. Construction machinery / cyclicals\n14. Transport / logistics / heavy-truck proxy basket\n15. Moutai vs broad consumer\n16. Optional vs staple consumer split\n17. Credit-risk proxy basket (property / brokers / fragile beta)\n18. OMO / MLF / LPR event markers\n19. Margin financing balance change\n20. Copper vs property chain\n\n### Optional / emotion layer\n21. Limit-up / limit-down counts\n22. Main-force net inflow\n23. ETF subscriptions / redemptions\n\n---\n\n## Preferred A-share Second-order Chains\n\nUse at least one explicit transmission chain in every A-share morning brief.\n\n### Template A: FX constraint chain\nStronger dollar / USDCNY staying elevated\n-> lower threshold for foreign capital to stay cautious\n-> weaker northbound continuity\n-> broad-beta and small-cap growth fail to get incremental confirmation\n-> the market falls back to “certainty first,” where Moutai and offshore China leaders tend to outperform CSI1000-style beta.\n\n### Template B: Local liquidity chain\nShibor / FR007 declines\n-> local funding becomes cheaper\n-> growth valuations repair first\n-> if turnover and breadth do not confirm\n-> it is only structural repair, not broad market diffusion.\n\n### Template C: Credit transmission chain\nPolicy support / pro-property messaging appears\n-> first check property stocks and banks\n-> then check property sales, development investment, and credit structure\n-> if bonds and credit do not confirm\n-> equities are only trading expectation, not genuine expansion.\n\n---\n\n## How to Read It in Stan Style\n\n### If these align, upgrade toward “diffusion repair”\n- USDCNY stable to stronger CNY\n- Northbound flow positive and persistent\n- CSI1000 and ChiNext outperform CSI300\n- Breadth improves together with turnover\n- Joint-stock banks and property leaders stabilize together\n\n### If these align, stay in “structural divergence”\n- Index is stable but breadth is weak\n- Large caps hold while small caps lag\n- Northbound is inconsistent\n- HK China confirms only partially\n- Local funding is stable but credit-sensitive sectors do not follow\n- Property / transport / mass-consumer / weak-credit proxies fail to confirm the headline move\n\n### If these align, downgrade toward “defense / contraction”\n- USDCNY weakens sharply\n- Northbound turns persistently negative\n- CSI1000 / ChiNext lose leadership\n- Breadth deteriorates despite index resilience\n- Joint-stock banks and property leaders underperform again\n\n---\n\n## Honest V1 Boundary\n\nEven with a stronger A-share tape, this workflow still does not replace:\n- intraday tape feel in specific leaders\n- transcript nuance and company-guidance interpretation\n- execution decisions: exact name, exact level, exact size\n\nUse this tape to standardize first-layer environment judgment.\nLeave second-layer execution to the human.\n\nFile v1.1.10:references/core-panels-and-sources.md\n\n# Core Panels and Sources\n\nPurpose: keep one compact reference for the V1/VNext panel hierarchy, key indicators, and practical source mapping.\n\nUse this file when maintaining the skill, refining the data layer, or checking whether a panel belongs in the daily engine, weekly engine, or monthly background layer.\n\n## 1) Product scope\n\nThis workflow is a first-layer macro environment engine.\nIt helps with:\n- liquidity\n- rates\n- credit\n- FX\n- breadth / internal structure\n- A-share transmission\n- U.S. and China macro-to-execution translation\n\nIt does not replace second-layer execution judgment:\n- exact asset\n- exact level\n- exact size\n- discretionary trading nuance\n\n## 2) Daily engine: required layers\n\n### U.S. core\nUse these as the default P0 daily stack:\n- Fed net liquidity\n- ON RRP balance\n- 2s10s\n- 3m10y\n- 10Y TIPS real yield\n- HY OAS\n- DXY / dollar proxy\n- USDJPY\n- WTI\n- VIX\n- 10Y nominal yield\n- IWM / SPY\n- RSP / SPY\n- KRE / SPY\n- SPHB / SPLV\n\n### A-share core\nUse these as the default P0 daily stack:\n- USDCNY or USDCNH\n- northbound flow or valid proxy\n- CSI300 vs CSI1000\n- ChiNext vs CSI300\n- breadth and turnover\n- China liquidity anchor (DR007 or Shibor)\n- China rates curve proxy\n- property leader basket\n- joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n- HK / offshore China confirmation\n\n## 3) Weekly / monthly extensions\n\n### Weekly U.S.\nUseful confirmation layer:\n- initial jobless claims\n- 5Y5Y or breakeven inflation\n- EPS revision momentum\n- broader breadth metrics\n- housing / consumer high-frequency set\n- thematic ETF flow proxies\n- IG / CCC / EMB stress proxies\n\n### Weekly China\nUseful confirmation layer:\n- DR007 / Shibor persistence\n- China 10Y-1Y curve proxy\n- credit impulse proxy\n- property high-frequency sales\n- HK China assets confirmation\n\n### Monthly background\nUse for slower regime calibration:\n- QT progress\n- financial conditions index\n- ISM / PMI decomposition\n- NFIB / business confidence\n- China monthly credit impulse\n- China property investment and sales\n- global PMI split\n- SLOOS\n\n## 4) A-share transmission additions\n\n### Internal structure\nMost important A-share daily reads:\n- CSI300 vs CSI1000\n- ChiNext vs CSI300\n- breadth\n- turnover\n- northbound continuity\n\n### Flow / who is buying\nPrefer:\n- northbound day + continuity\n- margin financing change\n- style / sector destination when available\n- ETF style flow as confirm, not thesis anchor\n\nDaily stabilization rule:\n- if northbound truth is unavailable or upstream values are clearly invalid, replace it with a northbound proxy built from Stock Connect breadth, style relative strength, and offshore China-beta confirmation\n- do not keep northbound truth as a routine daily hard gap if the proxy is available\n\n### Sector / single-name baskets\nUse baskets, not isolated names:\n- property\n- joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n- brokers\n- machinery\n- transport / logistics\n- heavy-truck proxy\n- premium consumer vs mass consumer\n- credit-sensitive basket\n\nDaily proxy policy:\n- use these baskets to build both credit-risk proxy and industry-expression proxy when direct truth series are unstable\n- do not block the daily memo waiting for exact industry net-flow truth\n- treat true daily industry net-flow as enhancement, not hard dependency\n\n### Preferred A-share second-order chains\nAlways try to include at least one explicit chain, for example:\n- external FX constraint\n  -> threshold for foreign capital to return changes\n  -> northbound continuity changes\n  -> broad-beta / small-cap / growth relative strength shifts\n  -> sector expression rotates\n\n- local liquidity change\n  -> funding price changes\n  -> valuation repair or only structural repair\n  -> turnover and breadth either confirm or fail to confirm\n\n- credit transmission change\n  -> property / banks / credit-sensitive assets either confirm or fail to confirm\n  -> cyclical leadership either becomes viable or does not\n\n## 5) Domestic Demand / Real Economy Nowcast\n\n### A-share / China side\nUse a compressed daily format by default.\n\nDefault daily format:\n- Housing: weak / stabilizing / improving\n- Consumption: weak / mixed / improving\n- Logistics / Trade: weak / mixed / improving\n- Industrial Activity: weak / mixed / improving\n- Composite Read: one sentence only\n\nExpand the sub-blocks only when:\n1. the underlying data has just updated,\n2. the update changes the day’s thesis,\n3. the market is explicitly trading this layer.\n\nPreferred fields behind the compressed read:\n- Housing: core-city second-hand viewings / listings, 30-city new home weekly sales area, land purchase / premium rate or construction proxy\n- Consumption: CPCA passenger car sales, dealer inventory coefficient or premium consumption proxy, express delivery activity\n- Logistics / Trade: SCFI, port throughput, freight / external demand proxy\n- Industrial Activity: Daqin railway throughput, electricity usage, excavator domestic sales, steel production / steel price when available\n\nAlways end with:\n- Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak\n- implication for A-shares\n\n### U.S. side\nUse the same compact logic with local equivalents.\nDo not require all blocks to be true daily-frequency series; stable latest-official weekly/monthly public series are acceptable if they can be fetched reliably on each daily run.\n\n#### Housing\nDefault stable public core:\n- 30Y mortgage rate (`MORTGAGE30US`)\n- housing starts (`HOUST`)\n- building permits (`PERMIT`)\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- mortgage applications\n- new / existing home sales\n- homebuilder sentiment\n\n#### Consumption\nDefault stable public core:\n- retail sales (`RSAFS`)\n- total vehicle sales / SAAR (`TOTALSA`)\n- real personal consumption expenditure (`PCEC96`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- card / restaurant / travel proxies\n\n#### Logistics / Trade\nDefault stable public core:\n- freight transportation services index (`TSIFRGHT`)\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- rail / truck / freight / shipping proxies\n\n#### Industrial Activity\nDefault stable public core:\n- industrial production (`INDPRO`)\n- capacity utilization (`TCU`)\n- durable goods new orders (`DGORDER`) when available\n\nOptional add-ons:\n- ISM new orders\n- capex / machinery / energy demand proxies\n\n#### Fundamental Validation\nDefault stable public core:\n- corporate profits after tax (`CP`)\n- unit labor costs (`ULCNFB`)\n- labor productivity (`OPHNFB`)\n- valuation compatibility versus rates / real yields\n\nOptional enhanced layer:\n- public earnings season surprise summary\n- public guidance / revisions summary when reliably accessible\n\nUse this layer to answer:\n- is the profitability backdrop improving, flat, or deteriorating?\n- are margins under pressure?\n- is productivity offsetting that pressure?\n- is the move earnings-backed or just multiple expansion?\n\nAlways end with:\n- Domestic Demand Status: improving / mixed / weak\n- implication for U.S. equities\n\n## 6) Practical source mapping\n\n### U.S. / global\nUse the best available mix of:\n- FRED\n- Yahoo or Stooq style market proxies\n- official or widely used public sources\n\nKey examples:\n- Fed liquidity / rates / HY OAS / VIX / DXY: FRED preferred where possible\n- index / ETF / FX / commodity proxies: Yahoo / Stooq fallback mix\n- MOVE fallback: 10Y Treasury realized-volatility proxy from daily yield changes\n- JPY vol fallback: USDJPY 20-day realized volatility\n- earnings-revision breadth fallback: corporate profits + unit labor costs + productivity + sector relative-strength proxy\n\n### A-shares / China\nFor now, it is acceptable to document the primary operational source simply as:\n- akshare\n\nWhen some fields are unavailable, acceptable fallbacks are:\n- official webpages\n- public reports / PDFs\n- stable proxy indicators\n\n### General rule\nDo not hardcode data values in the skill.\nThe skill should define:\n- what to fetch\n- from where\n- update cadence\n- fallback or proxy\n- downgrade behavior when unavailable\n\n## 7) Data quality and downgrade rules\n\nIf data is incomplete:\n- keep the memo alive\n- explicitly name missing panels only when they are truly core and unfillable\n- reduce confidence\n- avoid fake precision\n- use a proxy when the proxy preserves the transmission logic\n\nField status labels:\n- ok\n- stale\n- proxy\n- evidence insufficient\n\n### Daily A-share stabilization rule\nThe daily A-share brief should not repeatedly surface the same structural missing items as hard gaps if stable proxies exist.\n\nApply these defaults:\n- northbound net-buy truth -> northbound proxy\n- property / LGFV spread truth -> credit-risk proxy in daily mode, true spread in weekly/monthly enhancement\n- direct industry net-flow truth -> industry-expression proxy\n\nOnly report `Evidence Gaps` for missing P0 fields that do not have an acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not report optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n### Daily U.S. stabilization rule\nThe daily U.S. brief should not repeatedly surface the same structural missing items as hard gaps if stable proxies exist.\n\nApply these defaults:\n- Europe breadth panel -> Europe breadth proxy\n- MOVE -> Treasury realized-volatility proxy\n- JPY 1M vol -> USDJPY 20d realized-volatility proxy\n- daily sell-side revisions breadth -> downgrade to weekly/monthly enhancement and replace in daily mode with a public fundamental-validation proxy\n\nOnly report `Evidence Gaps` for missing P0 fields that do not have an acceptable stable proxy.\nDo not report optional enhancement fields as daily gaps.\n\n## 8) News validation\n\nUse news validation as a verification layer, not as the regime engine.\n\nRules:\n- build regime from transmission and market evidence first\n- use news only to confirm, challenge, or explain the current thesis\n- include 2-4 headlines max\n- for each headline, state source, Supports / Conflicts / Noise, and one-line implication\n\n### A-share source priority\n1. Official / policy anchors\n   - State Council / China gov portal / PBOC / CSRC / NDRC / NBS / MOF / MIIT / MOFCOM / Customs / NEA / exchanges\n2. Market wires\n   - CLS / Shanghai Securities News / China Securities Journal / Securities Times / Yicai\n3. Sector verification\n   - CRIC / Cih-index / Beike Research / CPCA / Shanghai Shipping Exchange / State Post Bureau / NEA / industry associations\n\n### U.S. source priority\n1. Core market / macro press\n   - Bloomberg / Reuters / WSJ / FT / CNBC\n2. Official / policy\n   - Federal Reserve / Treasury / BLS / BEA / Census / CBOE\n3. Broader narrative context\n   - NYT / WaPo / AP / major sector press\n\nDo not let a single headline override the transmission framework.\n\n## 9) Output discipline\n\nAll final memos should preserve:\n- conclusion first\n- thesis before tape\n- compact panels, then integrated read\n- evidence anchors after the main memo\n- explicit falsification\n- no explicit trade orders\n\nUse three reading layers:\n1. decision layer\n2. reasoning layer\n3. evidence layer\n\n## 10) Language resolution\n\nResolve language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- session habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference\n- if account preference and session habit conflict repeatedly, ask once and persist\n- if ambiguity remains, default to the latest user message language\n- keep analytical depth equivalent across languages\n\nArchive v1.1.9: 6 files, 36123 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (37454b)\n\nFile v1.1.9:SKILL.md\n\n---\nname: stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\ndescription: Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Reviews, Weekly Regime Resets, and pre-trade sanity checks. Use when the user asks for an A-share morning brief, a U.S. morning brief, a pre-market view, an intraday state update, an end-of-day review, a weekly regime reset, a market-location read, portfolio-bias guidance, falsification conditions, market priority, industry priority, or a translation from liquidity, rates, credit, real-economy demand, price, structure, sector expression, fundamentals, and reflexivity into Regime, Best Expression, Position Bias, Kill-switch, and Watchlist.\n---\n\n# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\n> Published version: **1.1.9**\n\n## 1) Positioning\n\nUse a public-data process that approximates a Druckenmiller-style workflow.\nDo not claim private access or exa\n\nArchive v1.1.8: 6 files, 36034 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (36634b)\n\nArchive v1.1.7: 6 files, 35756 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (35346b)\n\nArchive v1.1.6: 6 files, 35643 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (35137b)\n\nArchive v1.1.5: 6 files, 35412 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (34107b)\n\nArchive v1.1.4: 6 files, 35446 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (34015b)\n\nArchive v1.1.2: 6 files, 35295 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (33349b)\n\nArchive v1.1.1: 6 files, 34887 bytes\n\nFiles: _meta.json (149b), README.md (7512b), references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md (9929b), references/core-panels-and-sources.md (11308b), scripts/market_panels.py (41765b), SKILL.md (32214b)","readmeExcerpt":"Skill: Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow Owner: luckycatl Summary: Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Revie... Tags: latest:1.1.11 Version history: v1.1.11 | 2026-03-27T01:11:25.751Z | user Aligned output granularity with the latest structure: replaced the old CAR block with fixed Consensus Decomposition,","codeSnippets":[],"executableExamples":[{"language":"text","snippet":"stanley-druckenmiller-workflow/\n  SKILL.md\n  README.md\n  references/\n    core-panels-and-sources.md\n    a-share-tape-v1_1.md\n  scripts/\n    market_panels.py"},{"language":"bash","snippet":"export STANLEY_RUNTIME_DIR=/your/explicit/runtime/path"},{"language":"bash","snippet":"pip install finshare akshare"},{"language":"bash","snippet":"python3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode first\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode auto\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode off"},{"language":"bash","snippet":"export FINSHARE_MODE=first  # default: prefer finshare\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=auto   # Yahoo first, finshare as fallback\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=off    # disable finshare completely"},{"language":"bash","snippet":"export FRED_API_KEY=\"<your_fred_api_key>\""}],"parameters":null,"dependencies":[],"permissions":[],"extractedFiles":[{"path":"SKILL.md","content":"---\nname: stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\ndescription: Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Reviews, Weekly Regime Resets, and pre-trade sanity checks. Use when the user asks for an A-share morning brief, a U.S. morning brief, a pre-market view, an intraday state update, an end-of-day review, a weekly regime reset, a market-location read, portfolio-bias guidance, falsification conditions, market priority, industry priority, or a translation from liquidity, rates, credit, real-economy demand, price, structure, sector expression, fundamentals, and reflexivity into Regime, Best Expression, Position Bias, Kill-switch, and Watchlist.\n---\n\n# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\n> Published version: **1.1.11**\n\n## 1) Positioning\n\nUse a public-data process that approximates a Druckenmiller-style workflow.\nDo not claim private access or exact replication of the real person.\nDo not present inference as quoted fact.\n\nThis skill is a **macro-to-execution decision engine**, not a generic news summarizer.\n\nIts job is to:\n- identify the current regime\n- form a thesis first, then test it against tape\n- trace transmission from upstream conditions to downstream market expression\n- translate that into executable positioning language\n- define falsification clearly\n\nIts job is not to:\n- issue individual stock buy/sell calls\n- promise prediction accuracy\n- replace human execution judgment\n- dump raw data without synthesis\n\n### Product boundary\n- Strongest use: first-layer macro environment judgment\n- Human-owned layer: exact asset, exact entry, exact size, exact risk budget\n- Honest framing: AI watches the environment; the human decides how to bet\n\nWhen extending or maintaining the skill, read:\n- `references/core-panels-and-sources.md`\n- `references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md`\n\n---\n\n## 2) Output Style (Strict)\n\n- Output in the resolved user language.\n- Voice should feel like a live PM memo: direct, conditional, concise, human.\n- Depth parity rule: Chinese and English outputs should have equivalent analytical depth for the same request type.\n- Do not output JSON, YAML, code blocks, key-value dumps, or tool logs unless the user explicitly asks for machine format.\n- Markdown headings and bullets are allowed.\n- On first mention, explain each ticker or series in the user's language when that helps readability.\n- Facts and interpretation must be distinguishable.\n\n### Language Policy\nResolve output language in this order:\n1. explicit user instruction\n2. account-level preference\n3. current-session language habit\n4. platform locale / Accept-Language\n5. message-language detection\n\nRules:\n- explicit instruction overrides everything\n- current-session language habit should not silently overwrite account-level preference unless the user explicitly confirms a long-term change\n- if account preference and session habit conflict for multiple turns, ask once and persist the answer at t"},{"path":"README.md","content":"# Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow\n\nThesis-driven market analysis skill for OpenClaw.\n\nThis skill is designed for Druckenmiller-inspired macro/equity thinking with a live PM memo voice:\n- Liquidity and rates first\n- Consensus vs variant explicitly separated\n- D1/D2 (first derivative / second derivative) regime logic\n- Evidence anchors and safety disclaimers\n\nCurrent product framing:\n- Goal: hand most repetitive monitoring work to the machine and leave the highest-value judgment to the human.\n- V1 scope: US-led macro engine + China / A-share transmission layer.\n- Honest limitation: the skill can help with first-layer macro judgment, not fully replace second-layer execution judgment.\n- Core panels and source reference: `references/core-panels-and-sources.md`\n- A-share tape design reference: `references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md`\n\n## What This Skill Produces\n\nDepending on trigger, it can generate:\n- AM morning brief (thesis + validation)\n- EOD wrap\n- Weekly review\n- Monthly regime review\n- Pre-trade thesis collision check\n- Asset divergence monitor\n\nAll outputs are narrative and decision-oriented (not raw JSON dumps).\n\n## Folder Structure\n\n```text\nstanley-druckenmiller-workflow/\n  SKILL.md\n  README.md\n  references/\n    core-panels-and-sources.md\n    a-share-tape-v1_1.md\n  scripts/\n    market_panels.py\n```\n\n## Data Source Fallback (updated)\n\n`market_panels.py` now has two layers:\n\n### Global / cross-asset layer\nPer symbol, the default order is:\n1. finshare (default `first` mode)\n2. Yahoo chart API\n3. Stooq CSV\n4. FRED proxy mapping\n5. Local cache\n\n### A-share structure layer\nA-share internal structure now uses **AkShare** when available, mainly for:\n- northbound flow\n- Shibor / China government bond yields\n- margin financing and securities lending\n- property-chain, transport, consumer-tiering, and credit-sensitive proxy baskets\n\n### Runtime cache scope (security fix)\nBy default, `market_panels.py` now writes cache files only inside the skill directory:\n- `stanley-druckenmiller-workflow/.runtime/market-snapshots/`\n\nIt no longer writes to a workspace-level `memory/` directory by default.\n\nIf you explicitly want a different runtime/cache directory, set:\n\n```bash\nexport STANLEY_RUNTIME_DIR=/your/explicit/runtime/path\n```\n\nIf unset, the script stays confined to the skill-local runtime folder.\n\n### Minimal finshare integration (optional)\n\nDefault mode is `first`:\n- try finshare first\n- if finshare fails, fall back to Yahoo / Stooq / FRED / Cache\n- use `auto` to switch back to “Yahoo first, finshare as fallback”\n\n#### 1) Install optional dependencies\n\n```bash\npip install finshare akshare\n```\n\n#### 2) Enable / disable modes\n\n- CLI arguments (single run)\n\n```bash\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode first\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode auto\npython3 scripts/market_panels.py --finshare-mode off\n```\n\n- Environment variables (default global behavior)\n\n```bash\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=first  # default: prefer finshare\nexport FINSHARE_MODE=auto  "},{"path":"_meta.json","content":"{\n  \"ownerId\": \"kn7d3hfagfaks9xk7natxyg2w981hqsy\",\n  \"slug\": \"stanley-druckenmiller-workflow\",\n  \"version\": \"1.1.11\",\n  \"publishedAt\": 1774573885751\n}"},{"path":"references/a-share-tape-v1_1.md","content":"# A-share Tape V1.1\n\nGoal: build a Stan-style A-share tape using mostly free and reasonably stable data.\n\nPrinciples:\n- Keep the daily tape focused on what changes the regime read.\n- Separate hard anchors from noisy confirmation signals.\n- Prefer data that is free, repeatable, and can survive source changes with fallback.\n\n## Tiering\n- Core = should be in the V1 daily tape\n- Confirm = useful confirmation layer\n- Optional = helpful but noisy or fragile\n- Avoid as core = do not let this drive the main thesis in V1\n\n---\n\n## 1) Internal Structure (Most Important)\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters in Stan terms | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| CSI300 vs CSI1000 | Core | China version of IWM/SPY; large vs small cap risk appetite | High | Tencent / Eastmoney / Yahoo proxies | Core breadth / risk-expansion read |\n| ChiNext vs CSI300 | Core | Growth vs core-beta proxy | High | Tencent / Eastmoney / Yahoo | Use for duration / growth appetite |\n| STAR50 vs CSI300 | Confirm | Higher-beta innovation-board confirmation | Medium | Eastmoney / Tencent / AkShare proxies | Useful, not strictly required in V1 |\n| Up/down stocks count | Core | Most direct breadth signal | Medium-High | Eastmoney / AkShare market breadth pages | Critical for diagnosing “index up but tape weak” |\n| Total turnover (Shanghai + Shenzhen combined turnover) | Core | Shows whether repair has real participation | High | Eastmoney / Tencent / AkShare | Pair with breadth, not alone |\n| Limit-up / limit-down counts | Optional | A-share emotion extreme gauge | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare | Emotion layer only |\n\n---\n\n## 2) Flow / Who Is Buying\n\n| Indicator | Tier | Why it matters | Free source feasibility | Recommended sources | Notes |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Northbound net flow (single day) | Core | Best free foreign-flow proxy | High | Eastmoney / AkShare HSGT endpoints | Must be read with continuity, not as a single print |\n| Northbound 3-day / 5-day continuity | Core | More Stan-like than one-day flow | High | Derived from the same northbound source | Prefer over raw daily number |\n| Northbound sector destination | Confirm | Shows whether foreign money is buying banks / consumer / tech | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare summaries | Great when available, not mandatory |\n| Margin financing balance change | Confirm | Retail leverage temperature | Medium | Eastmoney / AkShare | Better as weekly / daily confirmation, not thesis anchor |\n| Credit-risk proxy basket (property developers / brokers / small-cap beta) | Confirm | A-share substitute for weak-credit tape; shows whether risk capital is willing to own fragile balance sheets | Medium | Eastmoney sector quotes + selected names | Prefer basket or spread-style read over one stock |\n| ETF subscriptions / redemptions | Confirm | Institutional demand for style buckets | Medium-Low | Fund issuer pages / Eastmoney | Good to add later |\n| Main-force net inflow | Optional | Can help with sector "},{"path":"references/core-panels-and-sources.md","content":"# Core Panels and Sources\n\nPurpose: keep one compact reference for the V1/VNext panel hierarchy, key indicators, and practical source mapping.\n\nUse this file when maintaining the skill, refining the data layer, or checking whether a panel belongs in the daily engine, weekly engine, or monthly background layer.\n\n## 1) Product scope\n\nThis workflow is a first-layer macro environment engine.\nIt helps with:\n- liquidity\n- rates\n- credit\n- FX\n- breadth / internal structure\n- A-share transmission\n- U.S. and China macro-to-execution translation\n\nIt does not replace second-layer execution judgment:\n- exact asset\n- exact level\n- exact size\n- discretionary trading nuance\n\n## 2) Daily engine: required layers\n\n### U.S. core\nUse these as the default P0 daily stack:\n- Fed net liquidity\n- ON RRP balance\n- 2s10s\n- 3m10y\n- 10Y TIPS real yield\n- HY OAS\n- DXY / dollar proxy\n- USDJPY\n- WTI\n- VIX\n- 10Y nominal yield\n- IWM / SPY\n- RSP / SPY\n- KRE / SPY\n- SPHB / SPLV\n\n### A-share core\nUse these as the default P0 daily stack:\n- USDCNY or USDCNH\n- northbound flow or valid proxy\n- CSI300 vs CSI1000\n- ChiNext vs CSI300\n- breadth and turnover\n- China liquidity anchor (DR007 or Shibor)\n- China rates curve proxy\n- property leader basket\n- joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n- HK / offshore China confirmation\n\n## 3) Weekly / monthly extensions\n\n### Weekly U.S.\nUseful confirmation layer:\n- initial jobless claims\n- 5Y5Y or breakeven inflation\n- EPS revision momentum\n- broader breadth metrics\n- housing / consumer high-frequency set\n- thematic ETF flow proxies\n- IG / CCC / EMB stress proxies\n\n### Weekly China\nUseful confirmation layer:\n- DR007 / Shibor persistence\n- China 10Y-1Y curve proxy\n- credit impulse proxy\n- property high-frequency sales\n- HK China assets confirmation\n\n### Monthly background\nUse for slower regime calibration:\n- QT progress\n- financial conditions index\n- ISM / PMI decomposition\n- NFIB / business confidence\n- China monthly credit impulse\n- China property investment and sales\n- global PMI split\n- SLOOS\n\n## 4) A-share transmission additions\n\n### Internal structure\nMost important A-share daily reads:\n- CSI300 vs CSI1000\n- ChiNext vs CSI300\n- breadth\n- turnover\n- northbound continuity\n\n### Flow / who is buying\nPrefer:\n- northbound day + continuity\n- margin financing change\n- style / sector destination when available\n- ETF style flow as confirm, not thesis anchor\n\nDaily stabilization rule:\n- if northbound truth is unavailable or upstream values are clearly invalid, replace it with a northbound proxy built from Stock Connect breadth, style relative strength, and offshore China-beta confirmation\n- do not keep northbound truth as a routine daily hard gap if the proxy is available\n\n### Sector / single-name baskets\nUse baskets, not isolated names:\n- property\n- joint-stock banks vs big state banks\n- brokers\n- machinery\n- transport / logistics\n- heavy-truck proxy\n- premium consumer vs mass consumer\n- credit-sensitive basket\n\nDaily proxy policy:\n- use these baskets to buil"}],"languages":[],"docsSourceLabel":"CLAWHUB","editorialOverview":"Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Revie... Skill: Stanley Druckenmiller Workflow Owner: luckycatl Summary: Thesis-driven macro-to-execution market workflow in natural Chinese or English. Generate A-share and U.S. equity Morning Briefs, Intraday Alerts, Close Revie... 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