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actual impact is 5-10% revenue, not 30%\"\n    why_others_miss_it: \"Headline risk scaring generalists; specialists still buying\"\n    \n  # THESIS STATEMENT (one sentence)\n  thesis_statement: \"AAPL is undervalued by 20% due to regulatory FUD; earnings growth will re-rate within 2 quarters\"\n  \n  # TIMEFRAME\n  timeframe:\n    horizon: \"3-6 months\"\n    catalyst_date: \"2026-04-15\"  # earnings, FDA, macro event\n    catalyst_type: \"earnings_beat\"\n    \n  # BULL / BASE / BEAR\n  scenarios:\n    bull:\n      probability: 30\n      target_price: 245\n      thesis: \"Regulation light + Services acceleration\"\n    base:\n      probability: 50\n      target_price: 215\n      thesis: \"Regulation moderate, priced in by Q3\"\n    bear:\n      probability: 20\n      target_price: 165\n      thesis: \"Full regulatory impact + macro downturn\"\n      \n  # EXPECTED VALUE\n  # EV = (P_bull × R_bull) + (P_base × R_base) + (P_bear × R_bear)\n  current_price: 190\n  expected_value: 213.5  # (0.3×245 + 0.5×215 + 0.2×165)\n  ev_vs_current: \"+12.4%\"\n  \n  # INVALIDATION — when you're WRONG\n  invalidation:\n    price_stop: 175  # -7.9% from entry\n    thesis_stop: \"Revenue decline >10% YoY in any segment\"\n    time_stop: \"No catalyst by 2026-07-01\"\n    \n  # CONVICTION (1-5)\n  conviction: 4\n  conviction_factors:\n    - \"3 independent data sources confirm undervaluation\"\n    - \"Insider buying last 90 days\"\n    - \"Valuation below 5Y average on EV/EBITDA\""},{"kind":"example","language":"yaml","snippet":"valuation:\n  # Price Multiples\n  pe_ratio: null          # Price / Earnings (TTM)\n  forward_pe: null        # Price / Forward Earnings\n  peg_ratio: null         # PE / Earnings Growth Rate\n  ps_ratio: null          # Price / Sales\n  pb_ratio: null          # Price / Book\n  ev_ebitda: null         # Enterprise Value / EBITDA\n  ev_revenue: null        # Enterprise Value / Revenue\n  fcf_yield: null         # Free Cash Flow / Market Cap\n  \n  # Compare to:\n  sector_median: null\n  historical_5y_avg: null\n  historical_range: [null, null]  # [low, high]\n  \n  # Verdict\n  valuation_score: null   # 1-10 (1=very expensive, 10=very cheap)\n  relative_to_sector: null  # premium | inline | discount"}]}}