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Works across stocks, crypto, ETFs, bonds, and alternatives. Zero dependencies — pure agent skill.\n\n## Quick Health Check (/8)\n\nBefore any investment activity, score your current state:\n\n| Signal | ✅ Healthy | ❌ Fix First |\n|--------|-----------|-------------|\n| Investment thesis documented | Written with edge + invalidation | \"I think it'll go up\" |\n| Position sizing calculated | Kelly/fixed-fractional with max cap | \"I'll put in $5K\" |\n| Stop-loss defined | Price or thesis invalidation trigger | No exit plan |\n| Portfolio heat tracked | Total exposure known, <15% | Unknown aggregate risk |\n| Asset correlation checked | No >40% correlated concentration | All tech / all crypto |\n| Rebalance schedule set | Monthly or threshold-based | Never rebalanced |\n| Tax impact considered | Harvesting losses, holding periods | Tax-blind trading |\n| Performance tracked | Benchmarked vs buy-and-hold | \"I think I'm up\" |\n\nScore /8. Below 5 = fix fundamentals before any new positions.\n\n---\n\n## Phase 1: Investment Thesis Development\n\nEvery position starts with a thesis. No thesis = no trade.\n\n### Thesis Brief Template\n\n```yaml\nthesis:\n  ticker: \"AAPL\"\n  asset_class: \"equity\"  # equity | crypto | etf | bond | commodity | real_estate\n  date: \"2026-02-22\"\n  \n  # THE EDGE — why does this opportunity exist?\n  edge:\n    type: \"mispricing\"  # mispricing | catalyst | trend | mean_reversion | structural\n    description: \"Market pricing in worst-case regulation; actual impact is 5-10% revenue, not 30%\"\n    why_others_miss_it: \"Headline risk scaring generalists; specialists still buying\"\n    \n  # THESIS STATEMENT (one sentence)\n  thesis_statement: \"AAPL is undervalued by 20% due to regulatory FUD; earnings growth will re-rate within 2 quarters\"\n  \n  # TIMEFRAME\n  timeframe:\n    horizon: \"3-6 months\"\n    catalyst_date: \"2026-04-15\"  # earnings, FDA, macro event\n    catalyst_type: \"earnings_beat\"\n    \n  # BULL / BASE / BEAR\n  scenarios:\n    bull:\n      probability: 30\n      target_price: 245\n      thesis: \"Regulation light + Services acceleration\"\n    base:\n      probability: 50\n      target_price: 215\n      thesis: \"Regulation moderate, priced in by Q3\"\n    bear:\n      probability: 20\n      target_price: 165\n      thesis: \"Full regulatory impact + macro downturn\"\n      \n  # EXPECTED VALUE\n  # EV = (P_bull × R_bull) + (P_base × R_base) + (P_bear × R_bear)\n  current_price: 190\n  expected_value: 213.5  # (0.3×245 + 0.5×215 + 0.2×165)\n  ev_vs_current: \"+12.4%\"\n  \n  # INVALIDATION — when you're WRONG\n  invalidation:\n    price_stop: 175  # -7.9% from entry\n    thesis_stop: \"Revenue decline >10% YoY in any segment\"\n    time_stop: \"No catalyst by 2026-07-01\"\n    \n  # CONVICTION (1-5)\n  conviction: 4\n  conviction_factors:\n    - \"3 independent data sources confirm undervaluation\"\n    - \"Insider buying last 90 days\"\n    - \"Valuation below 5Y average on EV/EBITDA\"\n```\n\n### Edge Type Framework\n\n| Edge Type | Description | Validation Method | Decay Rate |\n|-----------|-------------|-------------------|------------|\n| Mispricing | Market wrong on fundamentals | Comp analysis + model | Slow (months) |\n| Catalyst | Known upcoming event | Calendar + probability | Fast (event-driven) |\n| Trend | Momentum / technical | Price action + volume | Medium (weeks) |\n| Mean Reversion | Extreme deviation from norm | Z-score + history | Medium |\n| Structural | Market structure creates opportunity | Flow analysis | Slow |\n\n### Thesis Quality Checklist\n\n- [ ] Edge clearly articulated (not just \"it's cheap\")\n- [ ] Bull/base/bear with probabilities summing to 100%\n- [ ] Expected value positive vs current price\n- [ ] At least 2 independent data sources\n- [ ] Invalidation criteria defined (price + thesis + time)\n- [ ] Timeframe realistic for the edge type\n- [ ] Not just consensus view repackaged\n- [ ] Considered \"what if I'm wrong?\"\n\n---\n\n## Phase 2: Fundamental Analysis\n\n### Equity Analysis Framework\n\n#### Valuation Metrics (collect all, weight by sector)\n\n```yaml\nvaluation:\n  # Price Multiples\n  pe_ratio: null          # Price / Earnings (TTM)\n  forward_pe: null        # Price / Forward Earnings\n  peg_ratio: null         # PE / Earnings Growth Rate\n  ps_ratio: null          # Price / Sales\n  pb_ratio: null          # Price / Book\n  ev_ebitda: null         # Enterprise Value / EBITDA\n  ev_revenue: null        # Enterprise Value / Revenue\n  fcf_yield: null         # Free Cash Flow / Market Cap\n  \n  # Compare to:\n  sector_median: null\n  historical_5y_avg: null\n  historical_range: [null, null]  # [low, high]\n  \n  # Verdict\n  valuation_score: null   # 1-10 (1=very expensive, 10=very cheap)\n  relative_to_sector: null  # premium | inline | discount\n```\n\n#### Financial Health Scorecard\n\n| Dimension | Metric | Healthy | Warning | Danger |\n|-----------|--------|---------|---------|--------|\n| Profitability | Gross Margin | >50% | 30-50% | <30% |\n| Profitability | Net Margin | >15% | 5-15% | <5% |\n| Profitability | ROE | >15% | 8-15% | <8% |\n| Profitability | ROIC | >12% | 6-12% | <6% |\n| Growth | Revenue YoY | >15% | 5-15% | <5% |\n| Growth | EPS YoY | >10% | 0-10% | Declining |\n| Growth | FCF Growth | >10% | 0-10% | Declining |\n| Leverage | Debt/Equity | <0.5 | 0.5-1.5 | >1.5 |\n| Leverage | Interest Coverage | >8x | 3-8x | <3x |\n| Leverage | Net Debt/EBITDA | <2x | 2-4x | >4x |\n| Liquidity | Current Ratio | >1.5 | 1-1.5 | <1 |\n| Liquidity | Quick Ratio | >1.0 | 0.5-1 | <0.5 |\n| Efficiency | Asset Turnover | >0.8 | 0.4-0.8 | <0.4 |\n| Efficiency | Inventory Days | <60 | 60-120 | >120 |\n| Quality | FCF/Net Income | >80% | 50-80% | <50% |\n| Quality | Accruals Ratio | <5% | 5-10% | >10% |\n\nScore each dimension 1-3. Total /48. Above 36 = strong. Below 24 = avoid.\n\n#### Moat Assessment (0-25 points)\n\n| Moat Source | Score 0-5 | Evidence Required |\n|-------------|-----------|-------------------|\n| Network Effects | | Users increase value for other users |\n| Switching Costs | | Painful to leave (data lock-in, integrations) |\n| Cost Advantages | | Structural cost below competitors |\n| Intangible Assets | | Brand, patents, regulatory licenses |\n| Efficient Scale | | Market only supports limited competitors |\n\nScore /25. Above 15 = wide moat. 8-15 = narrow. Below 8 = no moat.\n\n### Crypto Analysis Framework\n\n```yaml\ncrypto_analysis:\n  # Network Fundamentals\n  network:\n    daily_active_addresses: null\n    transaction_volume_24h: null\n    hash_rate_trend: null        # BTC/PoW\n    staking_ratio: null          # PoS chains\n    developer_activity: null     # GitHub commits 90d\n    tvl: null                    # DeFi protocols\n    tvl_trend_30d: null\n    \n  # Tokenomics\n  tokenomics:\n    supply_schedule: null        # inflationary | deflationary | fixed\n    circulating_vs_total: null   # % circulating\n    unlock_schedule: null        # upcoming unlocks\n    concentration: null          # top 10 holders %\n    \n  # On-Chain Signals\n  on_chain:\n    exchange_reserves_trend: null  # decreasing = bullish\n    whale_accumulation: null       # large wallet changes\n    realized_profit_loss: null     # NUPL\n    mvrv_ratio: null               # Market Value / Realized Value\n    \n  # Market Structure\n  market:\n    funding_rate: null           # perpetuals funding\n    open_interest_trend: null\n    spot_vs_derivatives_volume: null\n    correlation_to_btc: null\n    correlation_to_sp500: null\n```\n\n### Crypto Valuation Methods\n\n| Method | Best For | Formula |\n|--------|----------|---------|\n| Stock-to-Flow | BTC | Price = 0.4 × S2F^3 (check vs actual) |\n| NVT Ratio | L1 chains | Network Value / Daily Transaction Value |\n| TVL Ratio | DeFi | Market Cap / TVL (below 1 = undervalued) |\n| Fee Revenue Multiple | Revenue-generating | MC / Annualized Fees |\n| Metcalfe's Law | Network tokens | Value ∝ n² (active addresses) |\n\n---\n\n## Phase 3: Technical Analysis\n\n### Price Action Framework\n\n```yaml\ntechnical_analysis:\n  ticker: \"BTC-USD\"\n  timeframe: \"daily\"\n  date: \"2026-02-22\"\n  \n  # TREND\n  trend:\n    primary: \"uptrend\"    # uptrend | downtrend | range\n    higher_highs: true\n    higher_lows: true\n    above_200ma: true\n    above_50ma: true\n    ma_alignment: \"bullish\"  # 20 > 50 > 200 = bullish\n    \n  # KEY LEVELS\n  levels:\n    resistance: [105000, 110000, 120000]\n    support: [95000, 88000, 80000]\n    current_price: 98500\n    distance_to_resistance: \"+6.6%\"\n    distance_to_support: \"-3.6%\"\n    \n  # MOMENTUM\n  momentum:\n    rsi_14: 58           # <30 oversold, >70 overbought\n    rsi_divergence: null # bullish_div | bearish_div | none\n    macd_signal: \"bullish\"  # bullish | bearish | neutral\n    macd_histogram_trend: \"increasing\"\n    \n  # VOLUME\n  volume:\n    vs_20d_avg: \"+15%\"\n    trend: \"increasing_on_up_days\"  # confirms trend\n    \n  # PATTERN\n  pattern:\n    current: \"ascending_triangle\"\n    reliability: \"high\"\n    target: 112000\n    invalidation: 93000\n```\n\n### Signal Scoring Matrix\n\n| Factor | Bullish (+) | Neutral (0) | Bearish (-) |\n|--------|-------------|-------------|-------------|\n| Trend (weight 3x) | Above 200MA, higher highs | Ranging | Below 200MA, lower lows |\n| Momentum (weight 2x) | RSI 40-60 rising, MACD bull cross | RSI 45-55 flat | RSI >75 or bearish div |\n| Volume (weight 2x) | Rising on up moves | Average | Rising on down moves |\n| Support/Resistance (weight 1x) | Near strong support | Mid-range | Near strong resistance |\n| Pattern (weight 1x) | Bullish continuation | No pattern | Bearish reversal |\n\nScore -9 to +9. Above +5 = strong buy signal. Below -5 = strong sell signal.\n\n---\n\n## Phase 4: Position Sizing & Risk Management\n\n### Position Sizing Rules (MANDATORY)\n\n```yaml\nrisk_rules:\n  # Per-Trade Risk\n  max_risk_per_trade: 2%       # of total equity\n  max_risk_aggressive: 3%      # only with 5/5 conviction\n  \n  # Portfolio Heat\n  max_portfolio_heat: 15%      # total risk across all positions\n  max_correlated_exposure: 25% # in correlated assets\n  max_single_position: 10%     # of total equity\n  \n  # Position Size Formula\n  # Position Size = (Account × Risk%) / (Entry - Stop Loss)\n  # Example: ($100K × 2%) / ($190 - $175) = $2,000 / $15 = 133 shares\n  \n  # Kelly Criterion (optional, aggressive)\n  # f* = (bp - q) / b\n  # b = win/loss ratio, p = win probability, q = 1-p\n  # ALWAYS use Half-Kelly or Quarter-Kelly (full Kelly = too aggressive)\n```\n\n### Position Size Calculator\n\n```\nAccount Equity:     $___________\nRisk Per Trade:     ___% (max 2%)\nDollar Risk:        $___________  (equity × risk%)\nEntry Price:        $___________\nStop Loss Price:    $___________\nRisk Per Share:     $___________  (entry - stop)\nPosition Size:      ___________ shares (dollar risk / risk per share)\nPosition Value:     $___________  (shares × entry)\nPortfolio Weight:   ___%          (position value / equity)\n\nCHECK: Portfolio weight < 10%?  ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)\nCHECK: Portfolio heat < 15%?    ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)\nCHECK: Correlated exposure ok?  ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)\n```\n\n### Stop-Loss Decision Tree\n\n```\nIs this a TREND trade?\n├── YES → Trailing stop below swing low (ATR-based: 2× ATR)\n│         Initial stop: Below last higher low\n│         Trail: Move stop to below each new higher low\n│\n└── NO → Is this a CATALYST trade?\n    ├── YES → Time-based + price stop\n    │         Price: Below pre-catalyst support\n    │         Time: Close if no move within 2 days post-catalyst\n    │\n    └── Is this a VALUE trade?\n        ├── YES → Thesis invalidation stop\n        │         Price: Below bear case scenario price\n        │         Thesis: Close if fundamental thesis breaks\n        │         Time: Close if no re-rating in stated timeframe\n        │\n        └── MEAN REVERSION → Tight stop\n            Price: If moves further from mean (wider Z-score)\n            Target: Mean / fair value level\n```\n\n### Risk Management Hard Rules\n\n1. **Never average down without a plan** — Adding to losers kills accounts. Only add if: thesis intact AND price at predetermined add level AND total position still within limits\n2. **Cut losses fast, let winners run** — Asymmetric payoff is the goal. 1:3 risk/reward minimum\n3. **No revenge trading** — After a loss, wait 24 hours before next trade\n4. **Daily loss limit** — Stop trading for the day after -3% account drawdown\n5. **Weekly loss limit** — Reduce position sizes by 50% after -5% weekly drawdown\n6. **Monthly loss limit** — Go to cash if -10% monthly drawdown. Review all positions.\n7. **Correlation check** — Before every new position, check correlation to existing holdings\n8. **Black swan rule** — If any asset moves >15% in 24h, review ALL positions immediately\n\n---\n\n## Phase 5: Portfolio Construction\n\n### Asset Allocation Framework\n\n```yaml\nportfolio:\n  name: \"Growth + Income\"\n  target_allocation:\n    # Core (60-70% — low turnover)\n    core:\n      us_large_cap: 25%      # S&P 500 / quality growth\n      international: 10%      # Developed markets\n      fixed_income: 15%       # Bonds / treasuries\n      bitcoin: 10%            # Digital gold thesis\n      real_estate: 5%         # REITs\n      \n    # Satellite (20-30% — active management)\n    satellite:\n      growth_stocks: 15%      # Individual stock picks\n      crypto_alts: 5%         # L1s, DeFi\n      thematic: 5%            # AI, clean energy, etc.\n      \n    # Cash (5-15%)\n    cash: 10%                 # Dry powder for opportunities\n    \n  # Rebalance Rules\n  rebalance:\n    method: \"threshold\"       # calendar | threshold | hybrid\n    threshold: 5%             # Rebalance when drift >5% from target\n    calendar_check: \"monthly\" # Review allocations monthly\n    tax_aware: true           # Use new contributions to rebalance first\n```\n\n### Portfolio Models by Risk Profile\n\n| Profile | Stocks | Bonds | Crypto | Alts | Cash | Expected Return | Max Drawdown |\n|---------|--------|-------|--------|------|------|----------------|--------------|\n| Conservative | 30% | 40% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 6-8% | -15% |\n| Balanced | 50% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8-12% | -25% |\n| Growth | 60% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 12-18% | -35% |\n| Aggressive | 50% | 0% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 15-25% | -50% |\n| Degen | 20% | 0% | 50% | 25% | 5% | 20-40%+ | -70%+ |\n\n### Correlation Matrix Template\n\nTrack correlations between holdings. Target: no two positions with >0.7 correlation exceeding 20% combined weight.\n\n```\n         SPY    BTC    ETH    AAPL   MSFT   GLD    TLT\nSPY      1.00\nBTC      0.35   1.00\nETH      0.30   0.85   1.00\nAAPL     0.82   0.25   0.20   1.00\nMSFT     0.85   0.28   0.22   0.78   1.00\nGLD     -0.10  -0.05  -0.08  -0.12  -0.10   1.00\nTLT     -0.35  -0.15  -0.12  -0.30  -0.32   0.40   1.00\n```\n\n---\n\n## Phase 6: Trade Execution\n\n### Trade Journal Template\n\n```yaml\ntrade:\n  id: \"T-2026-042\"\n  date_opened: \"2026-02-22\"\n  date_closed: null\n  \n  # WHAT\n  ticker: \"BTC-USD\"\n  direction: \"long\"\n  asset_class: \"crypto\"\n  \n  # SIZING\n  entry_price: 98500\n  position_size: 0.15  # BTC\n  position_value: 14775\n  portfolio_weight: \"8.2%\"\n  \n  # RISK\n  stop_loss: 93000\n  risk_amount: 825   # (98500-93000) × 0.15\n  risk_percent: \"0.82%\"  # of portfolio\n  \n  # TARGETS\n  target_1: 105000   # 50% of position\n  target_2: 115000   # 30% of position\n  target_3: 130000   # 20% of position (runner)\n  risk_reward: \"1:3.8\"  # avg target vs risk\n  \n  # THESIS\n  thesis: \"BTC consolidating above 200MA, halving supply reduction, ETF inflows accelerating\"\n  edge_type: \"trend + structural\"\n  conviction: 4\n  \n  # EXECUTION\n  entry_type: \"limit\"  # market | limit | scaled\n  scale_plan: null     # or: [{\"price\": 97000, \"size\": \"50%\"}, {\"price\": 95000, \"size\": \"50%\"}]\n  \n  # RESULT (fill on close)\n  exit_price: null\n  exit_reason: null    # target_hit | stop_hit | thesis_invalidated | time_stop | manual\n  pnl_dollar: null\n  pnl_percent: null\n  r_multiple: null     # PnL / initial risk\n  \n  # REVIEW\n  followed_plan: null  # yes | partially | no\n  lessons: null\n  mistakes: null\n  grade: null          # A-F\n```\n\n### Execution Checklist (Before EVERY Trade)\n\n- [ ] Thesis documented with edge, invalidation, timeframe\n- [ ] Position size calculated (≤2% risk, ≤10% portfolio weight)\n- [ ] Stop-loss set (price + thesis + time)\n- [ ] At least 2 take-profit targets defined\n- [ ] Risk/reward ≥1:2 (preferably 1:3+)\n- [ ] Portfolio heat check (total risk <15%)\n- [ ] Correlation check (not adding to concentrated exposure)\n- [ ] No emotional driver (revenge, FOMO, boredom)\n- [ ] Checked economic calendar (no surprise events imminent)\n- [ ] Entry type decided (market/limit/scaled)\n\n### Order Types Decision\n\n| Situation | Order Type | Why |\n|-----------|-----------|-----|\n| Strong conviction, want in now | Market | Speed over price |\n| Good setup, not urgent | Limit at support | Better entry |\n| High-conviction, want scale in | Scaled limits (3 levels) | Average entry, reduce timing risk |\n| Breakout trade | Stop-limit above resistance | Only enter if breakout confirms |\n| Catalyst trade | Limit pre-catalyst | Position before event |\n\n---\n\n## Phase 7: Performance Tracking\n\n### Daily Dashboard\n\n```yaml\ndaily_dashboard:\n  date: \"2026-02-22\"\n  \n  # PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT\n  portfolio:\n    total_equity: null\n    daily_pnl: null\n    daily_pnl_percent: null\n    weekly_pnl: null\n    monthly_pnl: null\n    ytd_pnl: null\n    \n  # POSITIONS\n  open_positions: 0\n  portfolio_heat: \"0%\"  # sum of all position risks\n  cash_percent: \"100%\"\n  \n  # BENCHMARK\n  benchmark:\n    sp500_ytd: null\n    btc_ytd: null\n    portfolio_vs_sp500: null\n    portfolio_vs_btc: null\n    \n  # ACTIVITY\n  trades_today: 0\n  alerts_triggered: []\n```\n\n### Performance Metrics (Track Weekly)\n\n| Metric | Formula | Target |\n|--------|---------|--------|\n| Win Rate | Winning trades / Total trades | >50% |\n| Average R | Average R-multiple of all trades | >1.5R |\n| Profit Factor | Gross profit / Gross loss | >2.0 |\n| Expectancy | (Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss) | Positive |\n| Max Drawdown | Peak to trough decline | <-15% |\n| Sharpe Ratio | (Return - RFR) / Std Dev | >1.5 |\n| Sortino Ratio | (Return - RFR) / Downside Dev | >2.0 |\n| Calmar Ratio | Annual Return / Max Drawdown | >1.0 |\n| Recovery Factor | Net Profit / Max Drawdown | >3.0 |\n\n### Monthly Review Template\n\n```yaml\nmonthly_review:\n  month: \"2026-02\"\n  \n  # PERFORMANCE\n  portfolio_return: null\n  benchmark_return: null  # vs S&P 500\n  alpha: null             # portfolio - benchmark\n  \n  # TRADING STATS\n  total_trades: 0\n  winning_trades: 0\n  losing_trades: 0\n  win_rate: null\n  average_winner: null\n  average_loser: null\n  largest_winner: null\n  largest_loser: null\n  profit_factor: null\n  \n  # RISK STATS\n  max_drawdown: null\n  avg_portfolio_heat: null\n  risk_rule_violations: 0\n  \n  # BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS\n  followed_plan_rate: null    # % of trades that followed the plan\n  emotional_trades: 0          # trades driven by FOMO/revenge/boredom\n  early_exits: 0               # cut winners short\n  late_exits: 0                # held losers too long\n  \n  # TOP 3 LESSONS\n  lessons:\n    - null\n    - null\n    - null\n    \n  # ADJUSTMENTS FOR NEXT MONTH\n  adjustments:\n    - null\n```\n\n---\n\n## Phase 8: Market Regime Detection\n\n### Regime Framework\n\n| Regime | Characteristics | Strategy | Position Size |\n|--------|----------------|----------|---------------|\n| Bull Trend | Rising 200MA, breadth >60%, VIX <20 | Trend following, buy dips | Full size |\n| Bear Trend | Falling 200MA, breadth <40%, VIX >30 | Short / inverse, raise cash | Half size |\n| Range/Chop | Flat 200MA, breadth 40-60% | Mean reversion, sell premium | Quarter size |\n| High Vol | VIX >35, large daily swings | Reduce exposure, hedge | Minimum size |\n| Euphoria | VIX <12, extreme bullish sentiment | Take profits, hedge | Scale down |\n| Panic | VIX >50, capitulation signals | Accumulate quality | Scale in slowly |\n\n### Macro Checklist (Weekly)\n\n- [ ] Fed funds rate / next meeting: ___\n- [ ] US 10Y yield trend: ___\n- [ ] Dollar (DXY) trend: ___\n- [ ] VIX level: ___\n- [ ] Credit spreads: ___ (tightening/widening)\n- [ ] Yield curve: ___ (inverted/flat/steep)\n- [ ] Leading indicators: ___ (improving/declining)\n- [ ] Global liquidity trend: ___ (expanding/contracting)\n- [ ] Sector rotation: ___ (risk-on/risk-off)\n- [ ] Crypto market cap trend: ___\n\n### Sentiment Indicators\n\n| Indicator | Extreme Fear (Buy) | Neutral | Extreme Greed (Sell) |\n|-----------|-------------------|---------|---------------------|\n| CNN Fear & Greed | <20 | 40-60 | >80 |\n| AAII Bull-Bear | >-30% spread | ±10% | >+30% spread |\n| Put/Call Ratio | >1.2 | 0.7-0.9 | <0.5 |\n| VIX Term Structure | Backwardation | Flat | Steep contango |\n| Crypto Fear & Greed | <15 | 40-60 | >85 |\n| BTC Funding Rates | Deeply negative | Neutral | >0.05% |\n\n---\n\n## Phase 9: Dividend & Income Analysis\n\n### Dividend Quality Score (0-100)\n\n| Factor | Weight | Scoring |\n|--------|--------|---------|\n| Yield vs Sector | 15 | At/above median = 15, below = proportional |\n| Payout Ratio | 20 | <50% = 20, 50-75% = 15, 75-100% = 5, >100% = 0 |\n| Growth Rate (5Y CAGR) | 20 | >10% = 20, 5-10% = 15, 0-5% = 10, declining = 0 |\n| Consecutive Years | 15 | >25y = 15 (Aristocrat), 10-25 = 10, 5-10 = 5, <5 = 0 |\n| FCF Coverage | 15 | FCF/Div >1.5 = 15, 1-1.5 = 10, <1 = 0 |\n| Debt/EBITDA | 15 | <2 = 15, 2-4 = 10, >4 = 5 |\n\nScore /100. Above 75 = excellent income pick. Below 40 = dividend at risk.\n\n### Income Portfolio Construction\n\n- **Core income** (60%): Dividend Aristocrats, quality REITs, investment-grade bonds\n- **Growth income** (25%): Dividend growers (low yield, high growth rate)\n- **High yield** (15%): Higher risk, higher yield (junk bonds, BDCs, covered calls)\n- **Yield target**: 4-6% blended, growing 5-8% annually\n\n---\n\n## Phase 10: Tax Optimization\n\n### Tax-Loss Harvesting Rules\n\n1. **When**: Position down >10% from cost basis AND held <12 months\n2. **How**: Sell the position, immediately buy a correlated (not substantially identical) replacement\n3. **Wash sale rule**: Cannot buy back the same security within 30 days (before or after)\n4. **Replacement examples**: SPY→VOO, AAPL→QQQ, BTC spot→BTC futures ETF\n5. **Track**: Cumulative harvested losses, offset against gains + $3K income deduction\n\n### Holding Period Optimization\n\n| Holding Period | Tax Rate (US) | Strategy |\n|----------------|--------------|----------|\n| <1 year | Ordinary income (up to 37%) | Only for high-conviction short-term trades |\n| >1 year | Long-term CG (0/15/20%) | Default for all positions when possible |\n| >5 years (QOZ) | Reduced + deferred | Qualified Opportunity Zone investments |\n\n### Tax-Efficient Account Allocation\n\n| Account Type | Best For | Why |\n|-------------|----------|-----|\n| Taxable | Long-term holds, tax-loss harvesting | Capital gains treatment |\n| Traditional IRA/401k | Bonds, REITs, high-dividend | Defer high-tax income |\n| Roth IRA | Highest growth potential | Tax-free growth |\n| HSA | Aggressive growth | Triple tax advantage |\n\n---\n\n## Phase 11: Screening & Idea Generation\n\n### Stock Screener Criteria Templates\n\n**Value Screen:**\n- P/E < sector median\n- P/B < 1.5\n- Debt/Equity < 0.5\n- ROE > 12%\n- FCF positive 5 consecutive years\n- Insider buying last 90 days\n\n**Growth Screen:**\n- Revenue growth > 20% YoY\n- EPS growth > 15% YoY\n- Gross margin > 50%\n- Net retention > 110% (SaaS)\n- TAM > $10B\n\n**Dividend Screen:**\n- Dividend yield > 3%\n- Payout ratio < 60%\n- Dividend growth > 5% CAGR (5Y)\n- Consecutive increases > 10 years\n- Debt/EBITDA < 3\n\n**Crypto Screen:**\n- Market cap > $1B (avoid micro-caps)\n- Daily volume > $50M\n- Active development (GitHub commits)\n- Not >90% held by top 10 wallets\n- Clear revenue model or adoption metrics\n\n### Research Sources (No API Required)\n\n| Source | URL | Best For |\n|--------|-----|----------|\n| Yahoo Finance | finance.yahoo.com | Fundamentals, quotes |\n| Finviz | finviz.com | Screening, heatmaps |\n| Macrotrends | macrotrends.net | Historical financials |\n| CoinGecko | coingecko.com | Crypto data |\n| DeFiLlama | defillama.com | DeFi TVL, yields |\n| FRED | fred.stlouisfed.org | Macro data |\n| TradingView | tradingview.com | Charts, technicals |\n| SEC EDGAR | sec.gov/edgar | Filings, insider trades |\n| Glassnode | glassnode.com | On-chain data |\n| Fear & Greed | alternative.me | Crypto sentiment |\n\n---\n\n## Phase 12: Advanced Strategies\n\n### Options Basics (for hedging)\n\n| Strategy | When | Risk | Reward |\n|----------|------|------|--------|\n| Protective Put | Own stock, want downside protection | Premium paid | Unlimited upside, limited downside |\n| Covered Call | Own stock, willing to cap upside | Capped gains | Premium income |\n| Cash-Secured Put | Want to buy at lower price | Must buy at strike | Premium + lower entry |\n| Collar | Want protection, willing to cap upside | Capped both ways | Low/no cost protection |\n\n### DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) Framework\n\n```yaml\ndca_plan:\n  asset: \"BTC\"\n  frequency: \"weekly\"           # daily | weekly | biweekly | monthly\n  amount: 250                   # per purchase\n  day: \"Monday\"                 # specific day\n  duration: \"indefinite\"        # or end date\n  \n  # SMART DCA (optional — buy more when cheap)\n  smart_dca:\n    enabled: true\n    base_amount: 250\n    multiplier_rules:\n      - condition: \"price < 200MA\"\n        multiplier: 1.5          # buy 50% more\n      - condition: \"RSI < 30\"\n        multiplier: 2.0          # double buy\n      - condition: \"price > 200MA × 1.5\"\n        multiplier: 0.5          # buy less in euphoria\n```\n\n### Rebalancing Decision Tree\n\n```\nIs any allocation >5% from target?\n├── NO → No action needed. Check again next month.\n│\n└── YES → Is it a tax-advantaged account?\n    ├── YES → Rebalance by selling overweight, buying underweight\n    │\n    └── NO (taxable) → Can you rebalance with new contributions?\n        ├── YES → Direct new money to underweight positions\n        │\n        └── NO → Are there tax losses to harvest?\n            ├── YES → Sell losers (harvest), redirect to underweight\n            │\n            └── NO → Is the drift >10%?\n                ├── YES → Rebalance (accept tax hit for risk control)\n                └── NO → Wait for next contribution or year-end\n```\n\n---\n\n## Investor Psychology Rules\n\n### 10 Cognitive Biases That Kill Returns\n\n| Bias | Trap | Defense |\n|------|------|---------|\n| Loss Aversion | Holding losers, cutting winners | Pre-set stops, mechanical exits |\n| Confirmation Bias | Only seeing data that supports thesis | Actively seek disconfirming evidence |\n| Recency Bias | Extrapolating recent performance | Look at full cycle data (10+ years) |\n| Anchoring | Fixating on purchase price | Focus on current value vs alternatives |\n| FOMO | Chasing after 50%+ move | Stick to your screener, your edge |\n| Overconfidence | Too large positions after wins | Fixed position sizing rules |\n| Disposition Effect | Selling winners too early | Trailing stops, let runners run |\n| Herding | Buying because everyone is | Contrarian checkpoints |\n| Sunk Cost | \"I've held this long, can't sell now\" | Would you buy this TODAY at this price? |\n| Hindsight | \"I knew it all along\" | Review trade journal honestly |\n\n### Trading Psychology Checklist (Daily)\n\n- [ ] Am I calm? (no anger, fear, or euphoria)\n- [ ] Am I following my system? (not improvising)\n- [ ] Am I within risk limits? (checked portfolio heat)\n- [ ] Am I trading my plan? (not reacting to noise)\n- [ ] Have I done my analysis? (not trading on tips)\n\n---\n\n## Quality Scoring (0-100)\n\n| Dimension | Weight | Criteria |\n|-----------|--------|----------|\n| Thesis Quality | 20 | Clear edge, documented invalidation, realistic timeframe |\n| Risk Management | 25 | Position sizing, stops, portfolio heat, correlation |\n| Analysis Depth | 15 | Fundamental + technical + macro considered |\n| Execution | 15 | Entry/exit discipline, order type selection, patience |\n| Record Keeping | 10 | Trade journal, performance metrics, monthly reviews |\n| Psychology | 10 | Emotional control, bias awareness, plan adherence |\n| Tax Efficiency | 5 | Harvesting, account allocation, holding periods |\n\nScore /100. Above 80 = professional-grade process. Below 50 = gambling.\n\n---\n\n## Natural Language Commands\n\n| Command | Action |\n|---------|--------|\n| \"Analyze [ticker]\" | Full fundamental + technical analysis |\n| \"Compare [ticker1] vs [ticker2]\" | Side-by-side comparison |\n| \"Build thesis for [ticker]\" | Generate thesis brief template |\n| \"Size position for [ticker] at [price]\" | Calculate position size with risk |\n| \"Portfolio health check\" | Score current portfolio /8 |\n| \"Monthly review\" | Generate performance review template |\n| \"Screen for [value/growth/dividend/crypto]\" | Apply screening criteria |\n| \"What's the market regime?\" | Assess current macro environment |\n| \"Tax harvest opportunities\" | Identify positions for loss harvesting |\n| \"DCA plan for [asset]\" | Generate dollar cost averaging plan |\n| \"Dividend score for [ticker]\" | Run dividend quality analysis |\n| \"Risk report\" | Portfolio heat, correlations, exposure summary |\n\n---\n\n*Built by AfrexAI — turning market noise into signal.* 🖤💛\n","readmeExcerpt":"Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management Engine Complete investment analysis, portfolio construction, risk management, and trade execution methodology. Works across stocks, crypto, ETFs, bonds, and alternatives. Zero dependencies — pure agent skill. Quick Health Check (/8) Before any investment activity, score your current state: | Signal | ✅ Healthy | ❌ Fix First | |--------|-----------|-------------| | Investment","codeSnippets":[],"executableExamples":[{"language":"yaml","snippet":"thesis:\n  ticker: \"AAPL\"\n  asset_class: \"equity\"  # equity | crypto | etf | bond | commodity | real_estate\n  date: \"2026-02-22\"\n  \n  # THE EDGE — why does this opportunity exist?\n  edge:\n    type: \"mispricing\"  # mispricing | catalyst | trend | mean_reversion | structural\n    description: \"Market pricing in worst-case regulation; actual impact is 5-10% revenue, not 30%\"\n    why_others_miss_it: \"Headline risk scaring generalists; specialists still buying\"\n    \n  # THESIS STATEMENT (one sentence)\n  thesis_statement: \"AAPL is undervalued by 20% due to regulatory FUD; earnings growth will re-rate within 2 quarters\"\n  \n  # TIMEFRAME\n  timeframe:\n    horizon: \"3-6 months\"\n    catalyst_date: \"2026-04-15\"  # earnings, FDA, macro event\n    catalyst_type: \"earnings_beat\"\n    \n  # BULL / BASE / BEAR\n  scenarios:\n    bull:\n      probability: 30\n      target_price: 245\n      thesis: \"Regulation light + Services acceleration\"\n    base:\n      probability: 50\n      target_price: 215\n      thesis: \"Regulation moderate, priced in by Q3\"\n    bear:\n      probability: 20\n      target_price: 165\n      thesis: \"Full regulatory impact + macro downturn\"\n      \n  # EXPECTED VALUE\n  # EV = (P_bull × R_bull) + (P_base × R_base) + (P_bear × R_bear)\n  current_price: 190\n  expected_value: 213.5  # (0.3×245 + 0.5×215 + 0.2×165)\n  ev_vs_current: \"+12.4%\"\n  \n  # INVALIDATION — when you're WRONG\n  invalidation:\n    price_stop: 175  # -7.9% from entry\n    thesis_stop: \"Revenue decline >10% YoY in any segment\"\n    time_stop: \"No catalyst by 2026-07-01\"\n    \n  # CONVICTION (1-5)\n  conviction: 4\n  conviction_factors:\n    - \"3 independent data sources confirm undervaluation\"\n    - \"Insider buying last 90 days\"\n    - \"Valuation below 5Y average on EV/EBITDA\""},{"language":"yaml","snippet":"valuation:\n  # Price Multiples\n  pe_ratio: null          # Price / Earnings (TTM)\n  forward_pe: null        # Price / Forward Earnings\n  peg_ratio: null         # PE / Earnings Growth Rate\n  ps_ratio: null          # Price / Sales\n  pb_ratio: null          # Price / Book\n  ev_ebitda: null         # Enterprise Value / EBITDA\n  ev_revenue: null        # Enterprise Value / Revenue\n  fcf_yield: null         # Free Cash Flow / Market Cap\n  \n  # Compare to:\n  sector_median: null\n  historical_5y_avg: null\n  historical_range: [null, null]  # [low, high]\n  \n  # Verdict\n  valuation_score: null   # 1-10 (1=very expensive, 10=very cheap)\n  relative_to_sector: null  # premium | inline | discount"},{"language":"yaml","snippet":"crypto_analysis:\n  # Network Fundamentals\n  network:\n    daily_active_addresses: null\n    transaction_volume_24h: null\n    hash_rate_trend: null        # BTC/PoW\n    staking_ratio: null          # PoS chains\n    developer_activity: null     # GitHub commits 90d\n    tvl: null                    # DeFi protocols\n    tvl_trend_30d: null\n    \n  # Tokenomics\n  tokenomics:\n    supply_schedule: null        # inflationary | deflationary | fixed\n    circulating_vs_total: null   # % circulating\n    unlock_schedule: null        # upcoming unlocks\n    concentration: null          # top 10 holders %\n    \n  # On-Chain Signals\n  on_chain:\n    exchange_reserves_trend: null  # decreasing = bullish\n    whale_accumulation: null       # large wallet changes\n    realized_profit_loss: null     # NUPL\n    mvrv_ratio: null               # Market Value / Realized Value\n    \n  # Market Structure\n  market:\n    funding_rate: null           # perpetuals funding\n    open_interest_trend: null\n    spot_vs_derivatives_volume: null\n    correlation_to_btc: null\n    correlation_to_sp500: null"},{"language":"yaml","snippet":"technical_analysis:\n  ticker: \"BTC-USD\"\n  timeframe: \"daily\"\n  date: \"2026-02-22\"\n  \n  # TREND\n  trend:\n    primary: \"uptrend\"    # uptrend | downtrend | range\n    higher_highs: true\n    higher_lows: true\n    above_200ma: true\n    above_50ma: true\n    ma_alignment: \"bullish\"  # 20 > 50 > 200 = bullish\n    \n  # KEY LEVELS\n  levels:\n    resistance: [105000, 110000, 120000]\n    support: [95000, 88000, 80000]\n    current_price: 98500\n    distance_to_resistance: \"+6.6%\"\n    distance_to_support: \"-3.6%\"\n    \n  # MOMENTUM\n  momentum:\n    rsi_14: 58           # <30 oversold, >70 overbought\n    rsi_divergence: null # bullish_div | bearish_div | none\n    macd_signal: \"bullish\"  # bullish | bearish | neutral\n    macd_histogram_trend: \"increasing\"\n    \n  # VOLUME\n  volume:\n    vs_20d_avg: \"+15%\"\n    trend: \"increasing_on_up_days\"  # confirms trend\n    \n  # PATTERN\n  pattern:\n    current: \"ascending_triangle\"\n    reliability: \"high\"\n    target: 112000\n    invalidation: 93000"},{"language":"yaml","snippet":"risk_rules:\n  # Per-Trade Risk\n  max_risk_per_trade: 2%       # of total equity\n  max_risk_aggressive: 3%      # only with 5/5 conviction\n  \n  # Portfolio Heat\n  max_portfolio_heat: 15%      # total risk across all positions\n  max_correlated_exposure: 25% # in correlated assets\n  max_single_position: 10%     # of total equity\n  \n  # Position Size Formula\n  # Position Size = (Account × Risk%) / (Entry - Stop Loss)\n  # Example: ($100K × 2%) / ($190 - $175) = $2,000 / $15 = 133 shares\n  \n  # Kelly Criterion (optional, aggressive)\n  # f* = (bp - q) / b\n  # b = win/loss ratio, p = win probability, q = 1-p\n  # ALWAYS use Half-Kelly or Quarter-Kelly (full Kelly = too aggressive)"},{"language":"text","snippet":"Account Equity:     $___________\nRisk Per Trade:     ___% (max 2%)\nDollar Risk:        $___________  (equity × risk%)\nEntry Price:        $___________\nStop Loss Price:    $___________\nRisk Per Share:     $___________  (entry - stop)\nPosition Size:      ___________ shares (dollar risk / risk per share)\nPosition Value:     $___________  (shares × entry)\nPortfolio Weight:   ___%          (position value / equity)\n\nCHECK: Portfolio weight < 10%?  ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)\nCHECK: Portfolio heat < 15%?    ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)\nCHECK: Correlated exposure ok?  ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)"}],"parameters":{},"dependencies":[],"permissions":[],"extractedFiles":[],"languages":["typescript"],"docsSourceLabel":"CLAWHUB","editorialOverview":"Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management Engine Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management Engine Complete investment analysis, portfolio construction, risk management, and trade execution methodology. Works across stocks, crypto, ETFs, bonds, and alternatives. Zero dependencies — pure agent skill. 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