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Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.\nmetadata: {\"clawdbot\":{\"emoji\":\"🔮\",\"requires\":{\"env\":[\"SIMMER_API_KEY\"],\"pip\":[\"simmer-sdk\"]},\"cron\":null,\"autostart\":false,\"automaton\":{\"managed\":true,\"entrypoint\":\"ai_divergence.py\"}}}\nauthors:\n  - Simmer (@simmer_markets)\nversion: \"2.0.0\"\npublished: true\n---\n\n# Polymarket AI Divergence Trader\n\nFind markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.\n\n> **This is a template.** The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## What It Does\n\n1. **Scans** all active markets for AI vs market price divergence\n2. **Filters** to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees\n3. **Checks** safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)\n4. **Sizes** using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively\n5. **Executes** trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)\n\n## Quick Commands\n\n```bash\n# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10\n```\n\n## Configuration\n\n| Key | Env Var | Default | Description |\n|-----|---------|---------|-------------|\n| `min_divergence` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN` | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display |\n| `min_edge` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE` | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) |\n| `max_bet_usd` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET` | 5.0 | Max bet per trade |\n| `max_trades_per_run` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES` | 3 | Max trades per cycle |\n| `kelly_cap` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP` | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap |\n| `daily_budget` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET` | 25.0 | Daily spend limit |\n| `default_direction` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION` | (both) | Filter: \"bullish\" or \"bearish\" |\n\nUpdate via CLI: `python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10`\n\n## How It Works\n\n### Divergence Signal\n\nEach imported market has two prices:\n- **AI consensus** (`current_probability`) — Simmer's multi-model ensemble price (6 LLMs × 6 personas + SDK agent trades)\n- **External price** (`external_price_yes`) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi\n\n`divergence = AI consensus - external price`\n\nWhen divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES\nWhen divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO\n\n### Kelly Sizing\n\nPosition size uses the Kelly criterion:\n```\nkelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd\n```\nCapped at `kelly_cap` (default 25%) to limit risk.\n\n### Fee Filtering\n\n75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill **only trades zero-fee markets** to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.\n\n### Safeguards\n\n- **Fee check**: Skips markets with any taker fee\n- **Flip-flop detection**: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades\n- **Position check**: Skips markets where you already hold a position\n- **Daily budget**: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached\n- **Kelly sizing**: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting\n\n## API Endpoints Used\n\n- `GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities` — Divergence-ranked market list\n- `GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id}` — Fee rate and safeguards per market\n- `POST /api/sdk/trade` — Trade execution (via SDK client)\n- `GET /api/sdk/positions` — Current portfolio positions\n\n## Troubleshooting\n\n**\"No markets above min edge threshold\"**\n→ All divergences are below the `min_edge` setting. 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