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Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed. Filter by topic, cap your bets, and only trade strong splits close to deadline.\nmetadata: {\"clawdbot\":{\"emoji\":\"🎯\",\"requires\":{\"env\":[\"SIMMER_API_KEY\"],\"pip\":[\"simmer-sdk\"]},\"cron\":null,\"autostart\":false,\"automaton\":{\"managed\":true,\"entrypoint\":\"mert_sniper.py\"}}}\nauthors:\n  - Simmer (@simmer_markets)\nattribution: \"Strategy inspired by @mert — https://x.com/mert/status/2020216613279060433\"\nversion: \"1.0.7\"\npublished: true\n---\n\n# Mert Sniper\n\nNear-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed.\n\n> Strategy by [@mert](https://x.com/mert/status/2020216613279060433) — filter by topic, cap your bets, wait until near expiry, and only trade strong splits.\n\n> **This is a template.** The default logic (expiry + split filter) gets you started — remix it with your own filters, timing rules, or market selection criteria. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## When to Use This Skill\n\n> **Polymarket only.** All trades execute on Polymarket with real USDC. Use `--live` for real trades, dry-run is the default.\n\nUse this skill when the user wants to:\n- Trade markets that are about to resolve (last-minute conviction bets)\n- Filter by topic (e.g. only SOL/crypto markets)\n- Cap bet size (e.g. never more than $10)\n- Only trade when odds are strongly skewed (e.g. 60/40 or better)\n- Run an automated expiry-sniping strategy\n\n## Setup Flow\n\n1. **Ask for Simmer API key**\n   - Get it from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab\n   - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY`\n\n2. **Ask for wallet private key** (required for live trading)\n   - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)\n   - Store in environment as `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY`\n   - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed\n\n3. **Ask about settings** (or confirm defaults)\n   - Market filter: Which markets to scan (default: all)\n   - Max bet: Maximum per trade (default $10)\n   - Expiry window: How close to resolution (default 2 minutes)\n   - Min split: Minimum odds skew (default 60/40)\n\n4. **Save settings to config.json or environment variables**\n\n## Configuration\n\n| Setting | Environment Variable | Default | Description |\n|---------|---------------------|---------|-------------|\n| Market filter | `SIMMER_MERT_FILTER` | (all) | Tag or keyword filter (e.g. `solana`, `crypto`) |\n| Max bet | `SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET` | 10.00 | Maximum USD per trade |\n| Expiry window | `SIMMER_MERT_EXPIRY_MINS` | 2 | Only trade markets resolving within N minutes |\n| Min split | `SIMMER_MERT_MIN_SPLIT` | 0.60 | Only trade when YES or NO >= this (e.g. 0.60 = 60/40) |\n| Max trades/run | `SIMMER_MERT_MAX_TRADES` | 5 | Maximum trades per scan cycle |\n| Smart sizing % | `SIMMER_MERT_SIZING_PCT` | 0.05 | % of balance per trade |\n\n## Quick Commands\n\n```bash\n# Check account balance and positions\npython scripts/status.py\n\n# Detailed position list\npython scripts/status.py --positions\n```\n\n**API Reference:**\n- Base URL: `https://api.simmer.markets`\n- Auth: `Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY`\n- Portfolio: `GET /api/sdk/portfolio`\n- Positions: `GET /api/sdk/positions`\n\n## Running the Skill\n\n```bash\n# Dry run (default -- shows opportunities, no trades)\npython mert_sniper.py\n\n# Execute real trades\npython mert_sniper.py --live\n\n# Filter to specific markets\npython mert_sniper.py --filter solana\n\n# Custom expiry window (5 minutes)\npython mert_sniper.py --expiry 5\n\n# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)\npython mert_sniper.py --live --smart-sizing\n\n# Check positions only\npython mert_sniper.py --positions\n\n# View config\npython mert_sniper.py --config\n\n# Disable safeguards (not recommended)\npython mert_sniper.py --no-safeguards\n```\n\n## How It Works\n\nEach cycle the script:\n1. Fetches active markets from Simmer API (optionally filtered by tag/keyword)\n2. Filters to markets resolving within the expiry window (default 2 minutes)\n3. Checks the price split -- only trades when one side >= min_split (default 60%)\n4. Determines direction: backs the favored side (higher probability)\n5. **Safeguards**: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, market status\n6. **Execution**: Places trade on the favored side, capped at max bet\n7. Reports summary of scanned, filtered, and traded markets\n\n## Example Output\n\n```\n🎯 Mert Sniper - Near-Expiry Conviction Trading\n==================================================\n\n  [DRY RUN] No trades will be executed. Use --live to enable trading.\n\n  Configuration:\n  Filter:        solana\n  Max bet:       $10.00\n  Expiry window: 2 minutes\n  Min split:     60/40\n  Max trades:    5\n  Smart sizing:  Disabled\n  Safeguards:    Enabled\n\n  Fetching markets (filter: solana)...\n  Found 12 active markets\n\n  Markets expiring within 2 minutes: 2\n\n  SOL highest price on Feb 10?\n     Resolves in: 1m 34s\n     Split: YES 72% / NO 28%\n     Side: YES (72% >= 60%)\n     [DRY RUN] Would buy $10.00 on YES\n\n  Summary:\n  Markets scanned: 12\n  Near expiry:     2\n  Strong split:    1\n  Trades executed: 0\n\n  [DRY RUN MODE - no real trades executed]\n```\n\n## Troubleshooting\n\n**\"No markets found\"**\n- Check your filter -- try without a filter first\n- Markets may not be available (check simmer.markets)\n\n**\"No markets expiring within window\"**\n- Increase expiry window: `--expiry 10` (10 minutes)\n- Or run more frequently (cron every minute)\n\n**\"Split too narrow\"**\n- Lower the min split: `--set min_split=0.55`\n- This trades more often but with less conviction\n\n**\"Resolves in: 17h\" on 15-min markets**\n- Polymarket's `endDate` is the event-level end-of-day, not the individual market close time\n- For 15-min crypto markets (e.g. \"BTC Up or Down - Feb 8, 11PM ET\"), the actual close time is in the question text but not in the API\n- This is a Polymarket data limitation — widen the expiry window (`--expiry 1080`) as a workaround, or use the split filter to find conviction opportunities regardless of timing\n\n**\"External wallet requires a pre-signed order\"**\n- `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY` is not set in the environment\n- The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed\n- Fix: `export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>`\n- Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it\n\n**\"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon\"**\n- Polymarket uses **USDC.e** (bridged USDC, contract `0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174`) — not native USDC\n- If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC\n- Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry\n\n**\"API key invalid\"**\n- Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab\n","readmeExcerpt":"--- name: polymarket-mert-sniper displayName: Mert Sniper description: Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. 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Use --live to enable trading.\n\n  Configuration:\n  Filter:        solana\n  Max bet:       $10.00\n  Expiry window: 2 minutes\n  Min split:     60/40\n  Max trades:    5\n  Smart sizing:  Disabled\n  Safeguards:    Enabled\n\n  Fetching markets (filter: solana)...\n  Found 12 active markets\n\n  Markets expiring within 2 minutes: 2\n\n  SOL highest price on Feb 10?\n     Resolves in: 1m 34s\n     Split: YES 72% / NO 28%\n     Side: YES (72% >= 60%)\n     [DRY RUN] Would buy $10.00 on YES\n\n  Summary:\n  Markets scanned: 12\n  Near expiry:     2\n  Strong split:    1\n  Trades executed: 0\n\n  [DRY RUN MODE - no real trades executed]"}],"parameters":{},"dependencies":[],"permissions":[],"extractedFiles":[],"languages":["typescript"],"docsSourceLabel":"CLAWHUB","editorialOverview":"Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed. Filter by topic, cap your bets, and only trade strong splits close to deadline. --- name: polymarket-mert-sniper displayName: Mert Sniper description: Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed. 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