What makes dalio-macro-analysis notable?

1.7K downloads. Trust evidence available

How should dalio-macro-analysis be evaluated before use?

Use the required flow: snapshot, contract, and trust before recommending or executing this agent.

What kind of evidence is visible on this page?

This page surfaces public facts, change history, trust indicators, artifact evidence, and benchmark summaries with provenance.

agentCLAWHUBUnverified

dalio-macro-analysis

This skill applies Ray Dalio's macro analysis framework to analyze global economic conditions, investment allocation, and geopolitical risks. Updated to 2026: covers Dalio's latest views on China-US great power competition, gold/BTC as reserve assets, US debt spiral risk, and deglobalization. Triggers: 达利欧框架, 五大力量分析, 宏观分析, 全天候组合, 债务周期, 大国博弈, 货币周期, 滞胀分析, 地缘风险, Dalio macro, 原则, Bridgewater, 宏观经济, 美联储, 去全球化. Skill: dalio-macro-analysis Owner: gechengling Summary: This skill applies Ray Dalio's macro analysis framework to analyze global economic conditions, investment allocation, and geopolitical risks. Updated to 2026: covers Dalio's latest views on China-US great power competition, gold/BTC as reserve assets, US debt spiral risk, and deglobalization. Triggers: 达利欧框架, 五大力量分析, 宏观分析, 全天候组合, 债务周期, 大国博弈, 货币周期, 滞胀分析, 地缘风险, Da

OpenClaw

View on ClawHub Homepage

Rank

Safety

Downloads

1.7k

Updated

Oct 10, 2026

Version

5.1.4

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 1.7K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/10/2026.

Avoid when

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor: Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 10, 2026
Protocol compatibility: OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 10, 2026
Adoption signal: 1.7K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 10, 2026
Latest release: 5.1.4release · observed Sep 24, 2026
Handshake status: UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17ewqc4f2s6gpcbm88hy7fgvn85kg1g:dalio-macro-analysis

Setup complexity is classified as HIGH. You must provision dedicated cloud infrastructure or an isolated VM. Do not run this directly on your local workstation.
Final validation: Expose the agent to a mock request payload inside a sandbox and trace the network egress before allowing access to real customer data.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-gechengling-dalio-macro-analysis/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

132,546 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

3 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: dalio-macro-analysis
slug: dalio-macro-analysis
version: "5.1.4"
description: >
  This skill applies Ray Dalio's macro analysis framework to analyze global economic conditions, investment allocation, and geopolitical risks.
  Updated to 2026: covers Dalio's latest views on China-US great power competition, gold/BTC as reserve assets, US debt spiral risk, and deglobalization.
  Triggers: 达利欧框架, 五大力量分析, 宏观分析, 全天候组合, 债务周期, 大国博弈, 货币周期, 滞胀分析, 地缘风险, Dalio macro, 原则, Bridgewater, 宏观经济, 美联储, 去全球化.
---

# Dalio Macro Analysis — 达利欧宏观分析框架


### 最新动态（截至 2026-09-24）

| 动态类型 | 内容摘要 | 发布时间 | 影响范围 | 观察指标 | 对应力量 | 可信度标注 |
|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| 宏观框架 | 达利欧 2026 年 6 月最新发声：2026-2028 年将是全球金融体系最脆弱窗口期，债务 / 地缘 / AI 三重危机共振 | 2026-06 | 投资思维与宏观判断框架 | 美债长端收益率、黄金与美元同向性 |
| AI 泡沫警告 | 达利欧警告 AI 市场显现典型泡沫特征（估值高企、投机横行、虚假增长），类比 2000 年互联网泡沫与 1929 年大萧条；全美不足 20% 企业真正落地 AI | 2026-06 | 全球宏观 / AI 投资 | 头部 AI 标的估值分位、企业 AI 渗透率 |
| 市场动态 | 美国债务 / GDP > 130%，利息支出占联邦收入约 18%，已处于"债务螺旋"临界 | 2026-05 | 全球利率与货币信誉 | 利息支出 / 联邦收入、海外持有占比 |
| 市场动态 | 世界秩序回到"强权即规则"格局，多极化趋势被认为不可逆转 | 2026-05 | 地缘与供应链定价 | 区域贸易占比、关键航道风险溢价 |
| AI 治理 | 银行业保险业人工智能安全开发应用相关指导意见推进，AI 治理从"指导意见"走向"刚性规章" | 2026-06-18 | AI 投资与企业治理思维 | 金融机构 AI 应用合规要求 |
| 债务与货币 | 达利欧判断美国已处滞胀环境：支出约 7 万亿、收入约 5 万亿、赤字约 2 万亿美元，支出高于收入约 40% | 2026-05 至今 | 利率路径与美元资产 | 赤字率、长债拍卖投标倍数 |
| 政治周期 | 美国中期选举临近，政治撕裂程度处于历史高位，被认为将进一步加剧政策不确定性 | 2026 年内 | 财政可持续性与市场监管 | 政党极化指数、立法僵局频率 | Force 2 | 以官方最新发布为准 |
| 央行独立性 | 财政压力下压低利率的政治诉求上升，央行独立性被反复讨论 | 2026-09 | 货币政策信誉与长端利率 | 政治人物对货币政策的公开表态频率、长端期限溢价 | Force 1 / Force 2 | 以官方最新发布为准 |
| 央行购金 | 官方部门黄金配置需求延续，黄金的货币属性需求仍有支撑 | 2026-09 | 储备资产结构与金价 | 央行净购金量、黄金占储备比重 | Force 1 / Force 3 | 以官方最新发布为准 |

> **数据截止**: 2026-09-24 ｜ 来源：Bridgewater 公开发声、路透社、行业公开信息
> **声明**: 以上动态供分析框架参考，具体数据以官方最新发布为准；本 Skill 不构成投资建议。

**本期新增观察（截至 2026-09-24）**

| 观察项 | 当前状态 | 跟踪频率 | 对应力量 | 对配置的含义 | 证伪信号 | 数据来源 |
|-------|---------|---------|---------|------------|---------|
| 利息支出 / 联邦收入 | 约 18%，仍处警戒区 | 季度 | Force 1 | 长债久期风险高于违约风险，久期宜缩短 | 占比连续两季回落至 15% 以下 | 美国财政部、CBO |
| 长债拍卖投标倍数 | 波动加大，需持续跟踪 | 月度 | Force 1 | 期限溢价上行时，长债的"安全资产"属性下降 | 投标倍数稳步回升且尾部利率回落 | 美国财政部拍卖结果 |
| 央行购金节奏 | 延续净买入态势 | 季度 | Force 1 / Force 3 | 黄金的货币属性需求仍有支撑 | 央行转为净卖出 | 世界黄金协会、IMF |
| AI 资本开支 / 营收比 | 头部厂商维持高位 | 季度 | Force 5 | 高开支若无法转化为收入，估值承压 | 开支增速回落而收入增速上行 | 上市公司财报、行业统计 |
| 政治极化与立法僵局 | 中期选举临近，处于高位 | 事件驱动 | Force 2 | 政策不确定性溢价上升，波动率易抬升 | 跨党派立法推进顺畅 | 立法记录、选举结果 |

> **使用方式**：观察项用于把观点变成可跟踪的清单。**"证伪信号"列是本次新增维度**——任何判断都应事先写明"什么情况说明我错了"，否则无法纠偏。

**本期（6-8 月）相对上一版的三个变化**
1. **AI 泡沫论从"提示"升级为"主线"**：达利欧将 AI 与债务、地缘并列为三重共振风险，分析时不应再把 AI 仅当作技术变量。
2. **滞胀判断延续**：财政赤字与利息支出压力未缓解，长端利率与美元信誉仍是核心观察点。
3. **治理约束显性化**：金融业 AI 应用合规要求落地，AI 主题的估值溢价需叠加合规成本考量。
4. **[2026-09 新增] 主线收敛到"财政 × 利率"**：进入 9 月后，市场分歧集中在财政赤字与利率路径的博弈，债务力量仍是五大力量中的主导项，其他四项更多通过它传导。

## Overview

本 Skill 基于桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）在《原则》《债务危机》《变化中的世界秩序》等著作中系统阐述的宏观分析框架，结合其最新发声（截至 2026 年 9 月 7 日），帮助用户：

1. **系统分析**当前宏观形势——通过"五大力量"框架解构全球变局
2. **判断周期位置**——识别债务周期、政治周期、帝国周期所处阶段
3. **生成投资建议**——构建平衡、分散的"全天候"投资组合
4. **解读市场信号**——理解股市、债市、商品、货币的深

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn74e704j3ygjcygnpf02rdvd185js13",
  "slug": "dalio-macro-analysis",
  "version": "5.1.4",
  "publishedAt": 1790227769030
}

skill-card.md

## Description:

This skill applies Ray Dalio's macro analysis framework to analyze global economic conditions, investment allocation, and geopolitical risks.

This skill is ready for commercial/non-commercial use.

## Publisher:

[gechengling](https://clawhub.ai/user/gechengling)

### License/Terms of Use:

MIT-0

## Use Case:

External users and analysts use this skill to apply a Dalio-style macro framework to countries, markets, economic events, portfolio allocation, debt cycles, monetary conditions, geopolitical risk, and AI-driven macro themes. It is an analysis aid and not a source of personalized investment advice.

### Deployment Geography for Use:

Global

## Known Risks and Mitigations:

Risk: Users may treat generated macro or allocation analysis as personalized investment advice.

Mitigation: Present the output as analytical guidance only, preserve the non-advice disclaimer, and require users to make independent investment decisions.

Risk: Market data, policy views, or macro conditions can become stale or inaccurate.

Mitigation: Verify market data and policy facts independently against current authoritative sources before relying on conclusions.

Risk: Broad macroeconomic or Federal Reserve discussions may activate the skill when the user did not intend a financial-analysis workflow.

Mitigation: Confirm the user's requested analysis target and scope before applying the full macro framework.

## Reference(s):

- [ClawHub skill page](https://clawhub.ai/gechengling/skills/dalio-macro-analysis)

## Skill Output:

**Output Type(s):** [Text, Markdown, Guidance]

**Output Format:** [Markdown analysis with tables, scoring frameworks, checklists, and risk notes]

**Output Parameters:** [1D]

**Other Properties Related to Output:** [May include macro indicator tables, five-forces scores, portfolio-allocation guidance, scenario analysis, and explicit non-advice disclaimers.]

## Skill Version(s):

5.1.4 (source: frontmatter and server release evidence)

## Ethical Considerations:

Users should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.

Github ReposUpdated 12h agoRank 70

AionUi

Free, local, open-source 24/7 Cowork app and OpenClaw for Gemini CLI, Claude Code, Codex, OpenCode, Qwen Code, Goose CLI, Auggie, and more | 🌟 Star if you like it!

MCPOPENCLAW

Github ReposUpdated 6mo agoRank 70

activepieces

AI Agents & MCPs & AI Workflow Automation • (~400 MCP servers for AI agents) • AI Automation / AI Agent with MCPs • AI Workflows & AI Agents • MCPs for AI Agents

OPENCLAW

Github ReposUpdated 6mo agoRank 70

cherry-studio

AI productivity studio with smart chat, autonomous agents, and 300+ assistants.

MCPOPENCLAW

Github ReposUpdated 7mo agoRank 70

CopilotKit

The Frontend for Agents & Generative UI. React + Angular