What makes kalshi-weather-trader notable?

2K downloads. Trust evidence available

How should kalshi-weather-trader be evaluated before use?

Use the required flow: snapshot, contract, and trust before recommending or executing this agent.

What kind of evidence is visible on this page?

This page surfaces public facts, change history, trust indicators, artifact evidence, and benchmark summaries with provenance.

agentCLAWHUBUnverified

kalshi-weather-trader

Trade Kalshi weather markets using NOAA forecasts via Simmer SDK and DFlow on Solana. Port of the popular polymarket-weather-trader. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets on Kalshi, automate weather bets, or check NOAA forecasts.

OpenClaw

View on ClawHub Homepage

Rank

Safety

Downloads

2.0k

Updated

Oct 9, 2026

Version

1.0.12

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 2K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/9/2026.

Avoid when

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor: Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 9, 2026
Protocol compatibility: OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 9, 2026
Adoption signal: 2K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 9, 2026
Latest release: 1.0.12release · observed Sep 10, 2026
Handshake status: UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:kalshi-weather-trader

Install using `clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:kalshi-weather-trader` in an isolated environment before connecting it to live workloads.
No published capability contract is available yet, so validate auth and request/response behavior manually.
Review the upstream CLAWHUB listing at https://clawhub.ai/simmer/kalshi-weather-trader before using production credentials.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-simmer-kalshi-weather-trader/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

127,474 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

5 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: kalshi-weather-trader
description: Trade Kalshi weather markets using NOAA forecasts via Simmer SDK and DFlow on Solana. Port of the popular polymarket-weather-trader. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets on Kalshi, automate weather bets, or check NOAA forecasts.
metadata:
author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)
version: "1.0.12"
displayName: Kalshi Weather Trader
difficulty: intermediate
attribution: Strategy inspired by gopfan2, powered by DFlow
primaryEnv: SIMMER_API_KEY
envVars:
- name: SIMMER_API_KEY
required: true
description: "Your Simmer SDK API key — get from simmer.markets/dashboard"
- name: SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY
required: true
description: "Solana wallet private key (base58) for signing DFlow trades. Kalshi has no managed-wallet mode — self-custody is the only option. Store only in secured environment; never commit."
---
# Kalshi Weather Trader

Trade temperature markets on Kalshi using NOAA forecast data, via DFlow on Solana.

> 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

> **This is a template.** The default signal is NOAA temperature forecasts — remix it with other weather APIs, different forecast models, or additional market types (precipitation, wind, etc.). The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, NOAA parsing, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

> **Powered by DFlow.** Kalshi trades execute via DFlow's Solana-based prediction market infrastructure. KYC verification through Proof is required for buys.

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Trade weather markets on Kalshi (not Polymarket)
- Set up automated temperature trading on Kalshi
- Check their Kalshi weather trading positions
- Configure trading thresholds or locations

## Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. **Install the Simmer SDK**
```bash
pip install simmer-sdk
```

2. **Ask for Simmer API key**
- They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
- Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY`

3. **Ask for Solana private key** (required for live trading)
- This is the base58-encoded secret key for their Solana wallet
- Store in environment as `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY`
- The SDK uses this to sign transactions client-side automatically

4. **Verify KYC**
- Required for Kalshi buys (not sells)
- Complete at [dflow.net/proof](https://dflow.net/proof)
- Check status: `curl "https://api.simmer.markets/api/proof/status?wallet=YOUR_SOLANA_ADDRESS"`

5. **Fund the wallet**
- SOL on Solana mainnet for transaction fees (~0.01 SOL)
- USDC on Solana mainnet for trading capital

6. **Ask about settings** (or confirm defaults)
- Entry threshold: Upper bound for when to buy (default 15¢)
- Min entry price: Lower bound to skip lottery-ticket mids (default 0 = off)
- Min hours to resolve: Skip ent

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x",
  "slug": "kalshi-weather-trader",
  "version": "1.0.12",
  "publishedAt": 1789009374292
}

CHANGELOG.md

# Changelog — kalshi-weather-trader

## [1.0.12] - 2026-09-09

### Added
- `SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_ENTRY_PRICE` (default `0` = off). Rejects entries below this mid so a raised `ENTRY_THRESHOLD` cannot buy lottery tickets.
- `SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_HOURS_TO_RESOLVE` (default `2`). Env override for the entry time-decay safeguard. Entry-only: exits keep the original 2h floor.

### Fixed
- The local entry price band now runs before context and trend network calls, so below-floor candidates are rejected with zero context/history requests.

## [1.0.8] - 2026-05-23

### Fixed
- `check_exit_opportunities` no longer crashes with `TypeError: argument of type 'NoneType' is not iterable` when a position's `sources` field is `None` (e.g. paper-mode entries). Changed `pos.get("sources", [])` → `pos.get("sources") or []` so explicit `None` values are coalesced to `[]`. Closes SIM-2371.

## [1.0.7] - prior
- See git history.

DISCLAIMER.md

# Disclaimer

This skill is a **framework**, not a production trading system. Read this
in full before connecting it to a wallet with real funds.

## No financial advice

Nothing in this skill constitutes financial, investment, or trading
advice. The default strategy implemented here is a starting point, not a
tested edge. Suitability for any account size or risk tolerance is your
responsibility to assess.

## Default parameters are not validated

Default parameters are calibrated for testing the plumbing, not for live
profit. They have not been validated to produce positive returns under
current market conditions. Run paper mode for an extended period before
scaling beyond default position sizes.

## Automated trading carries irreversible risk

When this skill runs with `--live`, it places real on-chain orders.
On-chain trades cannot be recalled. Strategy errors, signal lag, market
regime shifts, and operator misconfiguration can produce losses
exceeding any specific position size.

## Risk monitoring may not apply to all market types

Stop-loss and take-profit monitors run on a fixed schedule. Markets that
resolve faster than the monitor cycle cannot be exited automatically.

Some markets also resolve by gapping rather than decaying. Weather
temperature buckets are the clearest case: the losing side can sit near
your entry, then jump straight to about 0 at resolution, with no
intermediate price for a percentage stop to trigger on and no liquidity
to exit into. On these markets a stop-loss cannot cap your loss
regardless of the monitor cycle.

Position sizing is the only reliable risk control on these markets. Set
it conservatively, assuming the full position can go to zero.

## Use of this skill is at your own risk

By installing and running this skill you agree that the authors are not
liable for any losses, direct or indirect, that arise from its use. This
applies regardless of skill provenance — official Simmer skills,
community skills, and skills imported from external repositories all
carry this same disclaimer.

## Where to learn more before going live

- The skill's own `SKILL.md` documents the strategy and parameters
- Your trading venue's documentation covers fee structure, order types,
  and resolution rules
- Simmer SDK documentation covers paper mode, dry-run flags, and
  position monitoring

skill-card.md

## Description:

Trade Kalshi weather markets using NOAA forecasts via the Simmer SDK and DFlow on Solana.

This skill is for demonstration purposes and not for production usage.

## Publisher:

[simmer](https://clawhub.ai/user/simmer)

### License/Terms of Use:

MIT-0

## Use Case:

External developers and traders use this skill to configure, dry-run, and optionally execute automated Kalshi temperature-market trades driven by NOAA forecast signals. It also helps inspect account balances, open weather positions, and trading thresholds.

### Deployment Geography for Use:

Global

## Known Risks and Mitigations:

Risk: The security summary says live-trading safeguards can fail open.

Mitigation: Keep dry-run mode enabled until behavior is verified, and do not rely on advertised safeguards unless the fail-open behavior is fixed or acceptable for the user's risk tolerance.

Risk: The skill handles wallet-signing credentials and can place real on-chain orders.

Mitigation: Use a dedicated low-balance wallet, keep the Solana private key only in secured environment storage, and avoid connecting funds beyond the amount intended for this strategy.

Risk: The security guidance notes an unpinned Simmer SDK dependency.

Mitigation: Pin or review the simmer-sdk version before live use, especially before installing updates or enabling scheduled runs.

Risk: Automated weather-market trades can lose value quickly near resolution and may not be recoverable.

Mitigation: Use conservative position sizing, start with paper or simulated runs, and review market resolution timing before enabling live execution.

## Reference(s):

- [ClawHub skill page](https://clawhub.ai/simmer/skills/kalshi-weather-trader)
- [Simmer API](https://api.simmer.markets)
- [Simmer dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard)
- [NOAA Weather API](https://api.weather.gov)
- [DFlow Proof KYC](https://dflow.net/proof)

## Skill Output:

**Output Type(s):** [text, JSON, shell commands, configuration, guidance]

**Output Format:** [Markdown with inline shell commands and optional JSON status reports]

**Output Parameters:** [1D]

**Other Properties Related to Output:** [Dry-run is the default; live trading requires explicit --live execution and configured credentials.]

## Skill Version(s):

1.0.12 (source: server evidence, frontmatter, changelog released 2026-09-09)

## Ethical Considerations:

Users should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.

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