What makes Polymarket Ai Divergence notable?

3.2K downloads. Trust evidence available

How should Polymarket Ai Divergence be evaluated before use?

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agentCLAWHUBUnverified

Polymarket Ai Divergence

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec...

OpenClaw

View on ClawHub Homepage

Rank

Safety

Downloads

3.2k

Updated

Oct 9, 2026

Version

2.3.0

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 3.2K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/9/2026.

Avoid when

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor: Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 9, 2026
Protocol compatibility: OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 9, 2026
Adoption signal: 3.2K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 9, 2026
Latest release: 2.3.0release · observed Apr 25, 2026
Handshake status: UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-ai-divergence

Install using `clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-ai-divergence` in an isolated environment before connecting it to live workloads.
No published capability contract is available yet, so validate auth and request/response behavior manually.
Review the upstream CLAWHUB listing at https://clawhub.ai/simmer/polymarket-ai-divergence before using production credentials.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-simmer-polymarket-ai-divergence/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

78,051 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

4 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: polymarket-ai-divergence
description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.
metadata:
  author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)
  version: "2.3.0"
  displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence
  difficulty: intermediate
---
# Polymarket AI Divergence Trader

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.

> **This is a template.** The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

## What It Does

1. **Scans** all active markets for AI vs market price divergence
2. **Filters** to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees
3. **Checks** safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)
4. **Sizes** using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively
5. **Executes** trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)

## Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. **Install the Simmer SDK**
   ```bash
   pip install simmer-sdk
   ```

2. **Ask for Simmer API key**
   - They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY`

3. **Ask for wallet private key** (required for live trading)
   - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   - Store in environment as `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY`
   - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
   - Not needed for $SIM paper trading on the Simmer venue

## Quick Commands

```bash
# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config

# Update config
python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10
```

## Configuration

| Key | Env Var | Default | Description |
|-----|---------|---------|-------------|
| `min_divergence` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN` | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display |
| `min_edge` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE` | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) |
| `max_bet_usd` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET` | 5.0 | Max bet per trade |
| `max_trades_per_run` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES` | 3 | Max trades per cycle |
| `kelly_cap` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP` | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap |
| `daily_budget` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x",
  "slug": "polymarket-ai-divergence",
  "version": "2.3.0",
  "publishedAt": 1777108810731
}

skill-card.md

## Description:

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing.

This skill is ready for commercial/non-commercial use.

## Publisher:

[simmer](https://clawhub.ai/user/simmer)

### License/Terms of Use:

MIT-0

## Use Case:

Developers and trading agents use this skill to scan Polymarket and Kalshi-related market opportunities where Simmer AI consensus differs from external market prices, review divergence signals, and optionally execute position-sized trades.

### Deployment Geography for Use:

Global

## Known Risks and Mitigations:

Risk: Live mode can place real-money trades and the artifact may redeem positions automatically when run.

Mitigation: Review settings before execution, run dry scans first, and use a dedicated low-balance wallet with conservative max bet, daily budget, and trade count limits.

Risk: WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is highly sensitive when external-wallet trading is enabled.

Mitigation: Store private keys only in a trusted secret store or environment, never commit them, and rotate funds away from any exposed wallet.

Risk: The current artifact should not be relied on to trade only zero-fee markets.

Mitigation: Verify fee checks and configured endpoints before live trading, and independently confirm market fees when real funds are at risk.

## Reference(s):

- [ClawHub skill page](https://clawhub.ai/simmer/skills/polymarket-ai-divergence)
- [Simmer SDK API](https://api.simmer.markets)
- [Polymarket Gamma API](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com)

## Skill Output:

**Output Type(s):** [text, markdown, JSON, shell commands, configuration, guidance]

**Output Format:** [CLI text tables, Markdown instructions, and optional JSON output]

**Output Parameters:** [1D]

**Other Properties Related to Output:** [May place live trades when run with --live or when configured for a paper trading venue; requires SIMMER_API_KEY and may use WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY for external-wallet trading.]

## Skill Version(s):

2.3.0 (source: frontmatter, server release metadata)

## Ethical Considerations:

Users should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.

clawhub.json

{
  "emoji": "\ud83d\udd2e",
  "primaryEnv": "SIMMER_API_KEY",
  "requires": {
    "env": [
      "SIMMER_API_KEY"
    ],
    "pip": [
      "simmer-sdk>=0.11.1"
    ]
  },
  "envVars": [
    {
      "name": "SIMMER_API_KEY",
      "required": true,
      "description": "Your Simmer SDK API key \u2014 get from simmer.markets/dashboard"
    },
    {
      "name": "WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY",
      "required": false,
      "description": "Only needed for external-wallet self-custody trading. Not required when using managed wallets."
    }
  ],
  "cron": null,
  "autostart": false,
  "automaton": {
    "managed": true,
    "entrypoint": "ai_divergence.py"
  },
  "tunables": [
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 0.05,
      "range": [
        0.01,
        0.3
      ],
      "step": 0.01,
      "label": "Minimum edge threshold"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET_USD",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 50,
      "range": [
        1,
        200
      ],
      "step": 5,
      "label": "Max bet per trade"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 0.25,
      "range": [
        0.01,
        1.0
      ],
      "step": 0.01,
      "label": "Kelly fraction cap"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET_USD",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 100,
      "range": [
        10,
        500
      ],
      "step": 10,
      "label": "Daily budget"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 5,
      "range": [
        1,
        20
      ],
      "step": 1,
      "label": "Max trades per run"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION_FILTER",
      "type": "enum",
      "default": "any",
      "options": [
        "any",
        "yes_only",
        "no_only"
      ],
      "label": "Direction filter"
    }
  ]
}

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Machine-readable data

The same record, as JSON, for agents and crawlers.

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      "description": "Migrate to Polymarket Gamma keyset pagination (deprecation deadline May 1, 2026). GammaClient.get_markets and get_events now return (list, next_cursor); get_market and get_event use keyset filter form. search() unchanged.",
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Record generated Oct 9, 2026.

About

Avoid when

Public facts

Install and run

Documentation

Extracted files

SKILL.md

_meta.json

skill-card.md

clawhub.json

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