What makes polymarket-btc-up-down-trader notable?

1.2K downloads. Trust evidence available

How should polymarket-btc-up-down-trader be evaluated before use?

Use the required flow: snapshot, contract, and trust before recommending or executing this agent.

What kind of evidence is visible on this page?

This page surfaces public facts, change history, trust indicators, artifact evidence, and benchmark summaries with provenance.

agentCLAWHUBUnverified

polymarket-btc-up-down-trader

Trade Polymarket BTC daily and weekly UP/DOWN markets with empirically-anchored exit discipline. Enters on CEX momentum divergence; exits automatically on time cap, volume spike, or target capture. Use when the user wants to trade BTC direction markets (hours/days duration), not fast 5-minute markets.

OpenClaw

View on ClawHub Homepage

Rank

Safety

Downloads

1.2k

Updated

Oct 11, 2026

Version

1.2.5

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 1.2K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/11/2026.

Avoid when

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor: Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 11, 2026
Protocol compatibility: OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 11, 2026
Adoption signal: 1.2K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 11, 2026
Latest release: 1.2.5release · observed Sep 17, 2026
Handshake status: UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-btc-up-down-trader

Install using `clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-btc-up-down-trader` in an isolated environment before connecting it to live workloads.
No published capability contract is available yet, so validate auth and request/response behavior manually.
Review the upstream CLAWHUB listing at https://clawhub.ai/simmer/polymarket-btc-up-down-trader before using production credentials.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-simmer-polymarket-btc-up-down-trader/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

115,498 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

5 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: polymarket-btc-up-down-trader
description: Trade Polymarket BTC daily and weekly UP/DOWN markets with empirically-anchored exit discipline. Enters on CEX momentum divergence; exits automatically on time cap, volume spike, or target capture. Use when the user wants to trade BTC direction markets (hours/days duration), not fast 5-minute markets.
metadata:
author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)
version: "1.2.5"
displayName: Polymarket BTC Up-Down Trader
difficulty: intermediate
---
# Polymarket BTC Up-Down Trader

Trade Polymarket's BTC daily and weekly UP/DOWN markets with built-in exit discipline. Enters on Binance momentum signals, exits automatically before resolution tail risk bites.

> 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

> **Polymarket only.** All trades execute on Polymarket with real USDC. Use `--live` for real trades; default is dry run.

> **Not for fast (5m/15m) markets.** Use `polymarket-fast-loop` for those. This skill targets daily and weekly BTC direction markets with hours-to-days of duration.

## What's New in v1.2.3

- **Removed the "Oracle-Engineering Halt Gate" section.** This skill never called that detector, and it does not trade the ≤5-minute markets the gate targets. No code change.

## What's New in v1.2.2

- **Live NO entry is YES-scale.** `avg_cost` is the held-side price. A NO bought at 0.30 now stores entry 0.70 so `target_hit` can fire. Replay rows have no `avg_cost` and were already correct.

## What's New in v1.2.1

- **Exit monitor reads real `Position` objects.** `client.get_positions()` returns dataclasses, not dicts. Replay rows have shares + `cost_basis` only. Side, size, and YES-scale entry are derived. A missing `sources` list under replay is this skill.

## What's New in v1.2.0

- **Replay plane (SIM-5442).** Under `simmer backtest` (`SIMMER_REPLAY=1`) discovery, prices, and the clock come from the existing replay harness — same `SIMMER_REPLAY` / `SIMMER_REPLAY_NOW` pattern as weather. Live Gamma and CLOB midpoint stay dark. Candles were already replay-safe. The exit monitor reads SDK `Position` objects and replay share-rows (no `.get` crash after the first fill).
- **Keep / kill / fix** for this path is in Troubleshooting. Do not add a second capital lane until a full-tape run can produce an honest KEEP or KILL.

> ⚠️ **BTC UP/DOWN markets carry Polymarket's crypto taker fee.** Effective rate is 3.5% at 50¢, up to ~6.6% on cheap shares. Makers pay 0% and earn a 20% rebate from collected taker fees. Factor this into your minimum edge threshold.

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Trade BTC daily or weekly UP/DOWN prediction markets on Polymarket
- Apply systematic exit discipline (don't hold to settlement)
- Use CEX price momentum as the entry signal
- Monitor open positions and auto-exit when targets are hit

## Setup Flow

1. **Install the Simmer SDK**
```bash

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x",
  "slug": "polymarket-btc-up-down-trader",
  "version": "1.2.5",
  "publishedAt": 1789663261377
}

CHANGELOG.md

# Changelog — polymarket-btc-up-down-trader

## [1.2.5] - 2026-09-17

### Changed
- Requires `simmer-sdk>=0.25.8`, the first release whose `preflight()` is replay-aware. On an older SDK a backtest of this skill stops filling, because preflight blocks replay trades now that the skill no longer passes `skip_preflight`. Live trading is unaffected.

## [1.2.4] - 2026-09-17

### Changed
- **Replay trades no longer pass the deprecated `skip_preflight` valve (SIM-5430).** `_trade_kwargs` stops injecting `skip_preflight=True` under `SIMMER_REPLAY=1`; `SimmerClient.preflight()` is now replay-aware on a loopback base URL. Live behaviour unchanged.

## [1.2.3] - 2026-09-17

### Fixed
- **SKILL.md no longer claims an oracle-engineering halt gate.** The section said `simmer_sdk.risk.OracleEngineeringDetector` was built in and enabled by default. No code in this skill calls it, the skill skips the ≤5-minute markets the gate covers, and it has no market-maker or copytrade mode. ClawHub's scan flagged the claim. Docs only; `strategy.py` behaviour is unchanged.

## [1.2.2] - 2026-09-16

### Fixed
- **Live NO `avg_cost` is held-side, not YES-scale (SIM-5442 F4).** `_normalize_open_position` preferred `avg_cost` over the `cost_basis` derivation. A NO bought at 0.30 (YES 0.70) stored `entry_price=0.30`, so `check_target_hit_exit` never fired when YES fell. Replay rows omit `avg_cost`, so a backtest looked right. Entry now comes from `cost_basis / shares` (NO: `1 - avg`). `avg_cost` is last-resort and is flipped for NO.

## [1.2.1] - 2026-09-16

### Fixed
- **Exit monitor no longer crashes on SDK `Position` (SIM-5442 hold-merge).** `get_open_positions` used `p.get("source")` on a dataclass. That `AttributeError` killed every tick after the first fill. The skill now reads Position attributes. Replay share-rows (`market_id`, `shares_yes`/`shares_no`, `cost_basis`, no `source`) normalize to side, size, and YES-scale entry (`cost_basis/shares`; NO is `1 - cost_basis/shares_no`). Missing `sources` under replay is this skill.

## [1.2.0] - 2026-09-16

### Added
- **Replay plane for markets + prices + clock (SIM-5442).** Under `SIMMER_REPLAY=1` the skill lists BTC Up/Down dailies from the Simmer tape (`GET /api/sdk/markets?q=bitcoin up or down`, no `tags`/`status` — those 422 on replay). Horizon uses `SIMMER_REPLAY_NOW`. Prices come from tape `yes_price` / `current_probability`. Live Gamma and CLOB midpoint stay dark. Volume-spike exits are live-only (CLOB trades would be look-ahead). Replay trades pass `skip_preflight=True` so `WALLET_UNVERIFIED` cannot block SimState fills.

### Fixed
- Failed `trade()` results no longer increment `daily_spend.json`. A miss must not burn the UTC-day budget.
- Discovery no longer look-aheads to today's live "Bitcoin Up or Down on …?" row while a full tape of historical dailies sits unused.
- **Exit monitor accepts SDK `Position` objects and replay share-rows.** `get_positions()` returns dataclasses (`shares_yes` / `shares_no` / `cost_basis

DISCLAIMER.md

# Disclaimer

This skill is a **framework**, not a production trading system. Read this
in full before connecting it to a wallet with real funds.

## No financial advice

Nothing in this skill constitutes financial, investment, or trading
advice. The default strategy implemented here is a starting point, not a
tested edge. Suitability for any account size or risk tolerance is your
responsibility to assess.

## Default parameters are not validated

Default parameters are calibrated for testing the plumbing, not for live
profit. They have not been validated to produce positive returns under
current market conditions. Run paper mode for an extended period before
scaling beyond default position sizes.

## Automated trading carries irreversible risk

When this skill runs with `--live`, it places real on-chain orders.
On-chain trades cannot be recalled. Strategy errors, signal lag, market
regime shifts, and operator misconfiguration can produce losses
exceeding any specific position size.

## Risk monitoring may not apply to all market types

Stop-loss and take-profit monitors run on a fixed schedule. Markets that
resolve faster than the monitor cycle cannot be exited automatically.
Position sizing is the only risk control on these markets — set it
conservatively.

## Use of this skill is at your own risk

By installing and running this skill you agree that the authors are not
liable for any losses, direct or indirect, that arise from its use. This
applies regardless of skill provenance — official Simmer skills,
community skills, and skills imported from external repositories all
carry this same disclaimer.

## Where to learn more before going live

- The skill's own `SKILL.md` documents the strategy and parameters
- Your trading venue's documentation covers fee structure, order types,
  and resolution rules
- Simmer SDK documentation covers paper mode, dry-run flags, and
  position monitoring

skill-card.md

## Description:

Trade Polymarket BTC daily and weekly UP/DOWN markets with empirically-anchored exit discipline.

This skill is ready for commercial/non-commercial use.

## Publisher:

[simmer](https://clawhub.ai/user/simmer)

### License/Terms of Use:

MIT-0

## Use Case:

Traders and automation operators use this skill to scan Polymarket BTC daily and weekly direction markets, run dry-run checks, and optionally execute live entries and exits with configurable position and budget controls.

### Deployment Geography for Use:

Global

## Known Risks and Mitigations:

Risk: Live mode can place irreversible real-money Polymarket trades.

Mitigation: Start in dry run, use conservative position and daily-budget settings, and enable live mode only after reviewing the strategy and account risk.

Risk: Exporting WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY increases wallet custody exposure.

Mitigation: Avoid setting WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY unless external-wallet live trading is required; prefer managed-wallet or dry-run operation where appropriate.

Risk: Cron or looped execution can automate repeated trading decisions.

Mitigation: Review cron schedules and run monitor-only or dry-run checks before enabling unattended live execution.

## Reference(s):

- [ClawHub skill page](https://clawhub.ai/simmer/skills/polymarket-btc-up-down-trader)
- [Skill instructions](artifact/SKILL.md)
- [Disclaimer](artifact/DISCLAIMER.md)
- [Changelog](artifact/CHANGELOG.md)

## Skill Output:

**Output Type(s):** [text, markdown, code, shell commands, configuration, guidance]

**Output Format:** [Markdown guidance with inline shell commands and Python strategy execution output]

**Output Parameters:** [1D]

**Other Properties Related to Output:** [May place live Polymarket trades only when explicitly run with live-trading configuration.]

## Skill Version(s):

1.2.5 (source: server release evidence, frontmatter, and changelog)

## Ethical Considerations:

Users should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.

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