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agentCLAWHUBUnverified

polymarket-elon-tweets

Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.

OpenClaw
View on ClawHubHomepage

Rank

62

Safety

84

Downloads

2.8k

Updated

Oct 9, 2026

Version

1.3.6

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 2.8K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/9/2026.

Avoid when

  • Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor
Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 9, 2026
Protocol compatibility
OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 9, 2026
Adoption signal
2.8K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 9, 2026
Latest release
1.3.6release · observed Sep 6, 2026
Handshake status
UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-elon-tweets
  1. Install using `clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-elon-tweets` in an isolated environment before connecting it to live workloads.
  2. No published capability contract is available yet, so validate auth and request/response behavior manually.
  3. Review the upstream CLAWHUB listing at https://clawhub.ai/simmer/polymarket-elon-tweets before using production credentials.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-simmer-polymarket-elon-tweets/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

129,188 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

5 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: polymarket-elon-tweets
description: 'Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.'
metadata:
  author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)
  version: "1.3.6"
  displayName: Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader
  difficulty: advanced
  attribution: Strategy inspired by @noovd
---
# Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.

> 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically
- Set up @noovd-style bucket trading
- Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events
- Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions
- Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds

## How the Strategy Works

Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

1. **Get XTracker pace** — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total
2. **Find center bucket** — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace
3. **Buy adjacent buckets** — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)
4. **Check combined cost** — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)
5. **One bucket pays $1** — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs

## Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. **Install the Simmer SDK**
   ```bash
   pip install simmer-sdk
   ```

2. **Ask for Simmer API key**
   - They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY`

3. **Ask for wallet private key** (required for live trading)
   - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   - Store in environment as `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY`
   - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed

4. **Ask about settings** (or confirm defaults)
   - Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)
   - Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)
   - Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)
   - Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)

5. **Save settings to config.json or environment variables**

6. **Set up cron** (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)

## Configuration

| Setting | Env Variable | Config Key | Default | Description |
|---------|-------------|------------|---------|-------------|
| Max bucket sum | `SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM` | `max_bucket_sum` | 0.90 | Only buy if cluster prices sum < this |
| Max position | `SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION_USD

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x",
  "slug": "polymarket-elon-tweets",
  "version": "1.3.6",
  "publishedAt": 1788657141532
}

DISCLAIMER.md

# Disclaimer

This skill is a **framework**, not a production trading system. Read this
in full before connecting it to a wallet with real funds.

## No financial advice

Nothing in this skill constitutes financial, investment, or trading
advice. The default strategy implemented here is a starting point, not a
tested edge. Suitability for any account size or risk tolerance is your
responsibility to assess.

## Default parameters are not validated

Default parameters are calibrated for testing the plumbing, not for live
profit. They have not been validated to produce positive returns under
current market conditions. Run paper mode for an extended period before
scaling beyond default position sizes.

## Automated trading carries irreversible risk

When this skill runs with `--live`, it places real on-chain orders.
On-chain trades cannot be recalled. Strategy errors, signal lag, market
regime shifts, and operator misconfiguration can produce losses
exceeding any specific position size.

## Risk monitoring may not apply to all market types

Stop-loss and take-profit monitors run on a fixed schedule. Markets that
resolve faster than the monitor cycle cannot be exited automatically.
Position sizing is the only risk control on these markets — set it
conservatively.

## Use of this skill is at your own risk

By installing and running this skill you agree that the authors are not
liable for any losses, direct or indirect, that arise from its use. This
applies regardless of skill provenance — official Simmer skills,
community skills, and skills imported from external repositories all
carry this same disclaimer.

## Where to learn more before going live

- The skill's own `SKILL.md` documents the strategy and parameters
- Your trading venue's documentation covers fee structure, order types,
  and resolution rules
- Simmer SDK documentation covers paper mode, dry-run flags, and
  position monitoring

skill-card.md

## Description:

Trades Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data, buying adjacent range buckets when their combined cost is below the configured threshold.

This skill is ready for commercial/non-commercial use.

## Publisher:

[simmer](https://clawhub.ai/user/simmer)

### License/Terms of Use:

MIT-0

## Use Case:

External users and developers use this skill to configure, dry-run, monitor, and optionally execute automated Polymarket tweet-count trading strategies based on XTracker pace data.

### Deployment Geography for Use:

Global

## Known Risks and Mitigations:

Risk: Live mode can place real-money trades and on-chain orders cannot be recalled.

Mitigation: Use dry-run mode first, confirm market scope and exit behavior, and enable --live only with conservative position limits.

Risk: The skill may require Simmer API credentials and, for external-wallet trading, a wallet private key.

Mitigation: Prefer managed-wallet mode when available, avoid high-value private keys in the general environment, and use a dedicated low-balance wallet for live trading.

Risk: The default strategy and parameters are not validated as profitable under current market conditions.

Mitigation: Run paper mode for an extended period and keep max position size, sizing percentage, and max trades per run conservative.

Risk: Automated exits may not protect positions in markets that move or resolve faster than the monitoring cycle.

Mitigation: Monitor live positions manually and treat position sizing as the primary risk control for fast-resolving markets.

## Reference(s):

- [ClawHub skill page](https://clawhub.ai/simmer/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets)
- [Simmer API base](https://api.simmer.markets)
- [Simmer dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard)
- [Simmer V2 migration guide](https://docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration)

## Skill Output:

**Output Type(s):** [Text, Markdown, Shell commands, Configuration, Guidance]

**Output Format:** [Markdown with inline shell commands and configuration values]

**Output Parameters:** [1D]

**Other Properties Related to Output:** [Dry-run and status modes emit terminal summaries; live mode can submit orders when explicitly enabled.]

## Skill Version(s):

1.3.6 (source: server release metadata, skill frontmatter, and target metadata)

## Ethical Considerations:

Users should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.

clawhub.json

{
  "emoji": "\ud83d\udc26",
  "primaryEnv": "SIMMER_API_KEY",
  "requires": {
    "env": [
      "SIMMER_API_KEY"
    ],
    "pip": [
      "simmer-sdk>=0.11.1"
    ]
  },
  "envVars": [
    {
      "name": "SIMMER_API_KEY",
      "required": true,
      "description": "Your Simmer SDK API key \u2014 get from simmer.markets/dashboard"
    },
    {
      "name": "WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY",
      "required": false,
      "description": "Only needed for external-wallet self-custody trading. Not required when using managed wallets."
    }
  ],
  "cron": null,
  "autostart": false,
  "automaton": {
    "managed": true,
    "entrypoint": "elon_tweets.py"
  },
  "tunables": [
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION_USD",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 50,
      "range": [
        1,
        200
      ],
      "step": 5,
      "label": "Max position size"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 1,
      "range": [
        0,
        5
      ],
      "step": 1,
      "label": "Bucket spread (neighbors each side)"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 0.1,
      "range": [
        0.01,
        1.0
      ],
      "step": 0.01,
      "label": "Position sizing percentage"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 5,
      "range": [
        1,
        20
      ],
      "step": 1,
      "label": "Max trades per run"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_ELON_EXIT_THRESHOLD",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 0.85,
      "range": [
        0.5,
        0.99
      ],
      "step": 0.01,
      "label": "Exit probability threshold"
    },
    {
      "env": "SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_BPS",
      "type": "number",
      "default": 100,
      "range": [
        10,
        500
      ],
      "step": 10,
      "label": "Slippage tolerance (basis points)"
    }
  ]
}

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Machine-readable data

The same record, as JSON, for agents and crawlers.

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Record generated Oct 9, 2026.

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