What makes polymarket-weather-trader notable?

11.5K downloads. Trust evidence available

How should polymarket-weather-trader be evaluated before use?

Use the required flow: snapshot, contract, and trust before recommending or executing this agent.

What kind of evidence is visible on this page?

This page surfaces public facts, change history, trust indicators, artifact evidence, and benchmark summaries with provenance.

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polymarket-weather-trader

Trade Polymarket weather markets using NOAA (US) and Open-Meteo (international) forecasts via Simmer API. Inspired by gopfan2's weather trading approach. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets, automate weather bets, check forecasts, or run weather-based strategies.

OpenClaw

View on ClawHub Homepage

Rank

Safety

Downloads

11k

Updated

Oct 9, 2026

Version

1.23.22

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 11.5K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/9/2026.

Avoid when

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor: Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 9, 2026
Protocol compatibility: OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 9, 2026
Adoption signal: 11.5K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 9, 2026
Latest release: 1.23.22release · observed Sep 18, 2026
Handshake status: UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-weather-trader

Install using `clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-weather-trader` in an isolated environment before connecting it to live workloads.
No published capability contract is available yet, so validate auth and request/response behavior manually.
Review the upstream CLAWHUB listing at https://clawhub.ai/simmer/polymarket-weather-trader before using production credentials.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-simmer-polymarket-weather-trader/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

159,971 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

5 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: polymarket-weather-trader
description: Trade Polymarket weather markets using NOAA (US) and Open-Meteo (international) forecasts via Simmer API. Inspired by gopfan2's weather trading approach. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets, automate weather bets, check forecasts, or run weather-based strategies.
metadata:
  author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)
  version: "1.23.22"
  displayName: Polymarket Weather Trader
  difficulty: beginner
  attribution: Strategy inspired by gopfan2 (public Polymarket trader — approach referenced, not endorsed).
---
# Polymarket Weather Trader

Trade temperature markets on Polymarket using NOAA forecast data.

> 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

> **Template skill.** Defaults to dry-run mode (no real money). The `--live` flag is a deliberate single-command opt-in for real-money execution. Configure tunables (entry/exit thresholds, locations, etc.) via env vars listed below.

## Safety rails (read first)

This skill executes real-money trades on Polymarket only when the `--live` flag is passed AND the human's wallet is linked to their Simmer account. Trading is bounded by default:

- **Dry-run is the default.** `python weather_trader.py` (no flag) shows opportunities but executes no trades. The `--live` flag is required for real-money execution. There is no "auto-graduate" path.
- **`$SIM` paper sandbox option.** Set `TRADING_VENUE=sim` to trade Simmer's $SIM virtual currency at real prices — useful for validating the strategy without USDC exposure.
- **Real-money trading requires explicit human verification.** A wallet must be linked at [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard?ref=sdk-skill&utm_campaign=sdk-skill) before any real trade lands. Without a linked wallet the SDK rejects real-money order construction.
- **Per-trade cap.** `SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD` defaults to `$2.00` per trade. Configurable via env var, capped at the user's dashboard-set platform per-trade limit.
- **Daily caps.** Platform-level daily caps apply (max trades/day, max USD/day). Set at [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard?ref=sdk-skill&utm_campaign=sdk-skill) → SDK settings.
- **Auto stop-loss is ON by default.** Server-side risk monitor watches every buy. Threshold is configurable per user at simmer.markets/dashboard → Settings → Auto Risk Monitor. **It cannot protect against gap-resolution, though:** weather temperature buckets jump straight to about 0 at resolution rather than decaying through your stop, so a percentage stop has no price to trigger on and no liquidity to exit into. Size for the full loss, not for the stop. See [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md).
- **Strategy-side safeguards.** Beyond platform risk monitors, this skill checks flip-flop, slippage (`SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX`, default 15%), time-decay (`SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_HOURS_TO_RESOLVE`, default 2h), and re

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x",
  "slug": "polymarket-weather-trader",
  "version": "1.23.22",
  "publishedAt": 1789708464718
}

CHANGELOG.md

# Changelog

## [1.23.22] - 2026-09-18

### Added
- **Per-market position cap (SIM-5499).** `max_buys_per_market` (`SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_BUYS_PER_MARKET`, default `1`) checks held positions via `get_positions()` before entry and skips a market that's already at cap. The 2026-09-17 gate run's replay DCA'd into every underpriced bucket every tick (mean 34 buys/market, max 137, 94.8% max DD) while live lands 1-2 because balance/backoffs throttle it — the two were measuring different strategies. Default `1` makes replay one-buy-per-market like live; raise it to keep DCA, or set `0` for the old unbounded behavior.

### Changed
- Requires `simmer-sdk>=0.25.8`, the first release whose `preflight()` is replay-aware. On an older SDK a backtest of this skill stops filling, because preflight blocks replay trades now that the skill no longer passes `skip_preflight`. Live trading is unaffected.

### Fixed
- **Skip reasons were collected but never surfaced.** `run_weather_strategy` built a `skip_reasons` list all run and never printed it, so diagnosing "location X entered zero markets" (the London 0/36 half of SIM-5499) meant re-reading per-tick logs. The summary now prints a per-location skip-reason breakdown (forces past `--quiet`, same as the station-parse coverage guard), and the two skip paths that carried no reason at all ("no forecast available", "no bucket found") now record one. Events whose text never parses into a location are tracked separately by a snippet of the event name.

## [1.23.20] - 2026-09-17

### Changed
- **Replay trades no longer pass the deprecated `skip_preflight` valve (SIM-5430).** `SimmerClient.preflight()` is replay-aware under `SIMMER_REPLAY=1` on a loopback base URL, so `execute_trade` / `execute_sell` drop `skip_preflight=replay`. Live behaviour unchanged: preflight still runs and still blocks on `WALLET_UNVERIFIED`. Version skips 1.23.18/1.23.19, reserved for #384 and SIM-5440 which are in flight.
## [1.23.19] - 2026-09-17

### Fixed
- Replay archive builder hardening from the KEEP/KILL run (SIM-5440): Open-Meteo HTTP 5xx responses retry up to 3 attempts with backoff, while HTTP 4xx still aborts immediately.
- Long or old Previous Runs windows are fetched in 10-day chunks and merged internally. The build aborts if `utc_offset_seconds` differs across chunks for a station.
- Added `--stations us|intl|all` (default `all`). `us` limits the build to the 8 configured Polymarket US resolution stations, so US-only archives avoid international DST guards and 56 needless requests.

## [1.23.18] - 2026-09-17

### Fixed
- **Replay positions were always empty (SIM-5484).** `get_positions()` filtered by `venue="polymarket"` even under replay, but the replay server rejects any `venue` filter (422, SIM-5067). The 422 was swallowed to `[]`, so the skill never knew what it already held and re-bought the same bucket every tick (13-25x/market observed on a full-tape run). Replay now omits the venue filter; live is unchanged.

### Docs
- **`SIMMER_

DISCLAIMER.md

# Disclaimer

This skill is a **framework**, not a production trading system. Read this
in full before connecting it to a wallet with real funds.

## No financial advice

Nothing in this skill constitutes financial, investment, or trading
advice. The default strategy implemented here is a starting point, not a
tested edge. Suitability for any account size or risk tolerance is your
responsibility to assess.

## Default parameters are not validated

Default parameters are calibrated for testing the plumbing, not for live
profit. They have not been validated to produce positive returns under
current market conditions. Run paper mode for an extended period before
scaling beyond default position sizes.

## Automated trading carries irreversible risk

When this skill runs with `--live`, it places real on-chain orders.
On-chain trades cannot be recalled. Strategy errors, signal lag, market
regime shifts, and operator misconfiguration can produce losses
exceeding any specific position size.

## Risk monitoring may not apply to all market types

Stop-loss and take-profit monitors run on a fixed schedule. Markets that
resolve faster than the monitor cycle cannot be exited automatically.

Some markets also resolve by gapping rather than decaying. Weather
temperature buckets are the clearest case: the losing side can sit near
your entry, then jump straight to about 0 at resolution, with no
intermediate price for a percentage stop to trigger on and no liquidity
to exit into. On these markets a stop-loss cannot cap your loss
regardless of the monitor cycle.

Position sizing is the only reliable risk control on these markets. Set
it conservatively, assuming the full position can go to zero.

## Use of this skill is at your own risk

By installing and running this skill you agree that the authors are not
liable for any losses, direct or indirect, that arise from its use. This
applies regardless of skill provenance — official Simmer skills,
community skills, and skills imported from external repositories all
carry this same disclaimer.

## Where to learn more before going live

- The skill's own `SKILL.md` documents the strategy and parameters
- Your trading venue's documentation covers fee structure, order types,
  and resolution rules
- Simmer SDK documentation covers paper mode, dry-run flags, and
  position monitoring

skill-card.md

## Description:

Trades Polymarket weather markets using NOAA and Open-Meteo forecasts through the Simmer API.

This skill is ready for commercial/non-commercial use.

## Publisher:

[simmer](https://clawhub.ai/user/simmer)

### License/Terms of Use:

MIT-0

## Use Case:

External users and developers use this skill to inspect, configure, paper-trade, or explicitly live-trade weather prediction markets based on forecast data and market prices. It also supports position checks and replay/backtest workflows for validating the trading path before adding capital.

### Deployment Geography for Use:

Global

## Known Risks and Mitigations:

Risk: The skill can place real-money trades when live mode is enabled, and automated trading can produce irreversible losses.

Mitigation: Start in dry-run or TRADING_VENUE=sim, keep tight platform and per-trade caps, and use --live only after accepting the trading risk.

Risk: Some safeguards can be bypassed or fail open when context data is unavailable or when --no-safeguards is used.

Mitigation: Keep safeguards enabled, review preflight/status output before live use, and avoid --no-safeguards unless the operator has independently verified the market context.

Risk: Weather bucket markets can resolve by gapping directly to near zero, so stop-loss monitoring may not cap downside.

Mitigation: Size positions assuming the full position can be lost, keep max position and max buys per market conservative, and rely on position sizing rather than stop-losses alone.

Risk: External-wallet self-custody mode may require WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY, which increases credential exposure if handled casually.

Mitigation: Avoid providing WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY unless external-wallet live trading is required, prefer paper or managed-wallet flows first, and keep credentials scoped to the runtime environment.

## Reference(s):

- [ClawHub skill page](https://clawhub.ai/simmer/skills/polymarket-weather-trader)
- [Simmer wallet setup](https://docs.simmer.markets/wallets)
- [Simmer V2 migration](https://docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration)
- [Open-Meteo Previous Runs API](https://previous-runs-api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast)
- [NOAA Weather API](https://api.weather.gov)

## Skill Output:

**Output Type(s):** [Text, Markdown, Code, Shell commands, Configuration, Guidance]

**Output Format:** [Markdown guidance with inline shell commands, Python entrypoints, JSON configuration, and console summaries.]

**Output Parameters:** [1D]

**Other Properties Related to Output:** [May place simulated or live trading orders only when invoked with the required runtime configuration and explicit live mode.]

## Skill Version(s):

1.23.22 (source: server evidence, SKILL.md frontmatter, CHANGELOG)

## Ethical Considerations:

Users should evaluate whether this skill is appropriate for their environment, review any generated or modified files before relying on them, and apply their organization's safety, security, and compliance requirements before deployment.

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