What makes Polymarket FastScaler notable?

1.2K downloads. Trust evidence available

How should Polymarket FastScaler be evaluated before use?

Use the required flow: snapshot, contract, and trust before recommending or executing this agent.

What kind of evidence is visible on this page?

This page surfaces public facts, change history, trust indicators, artifact evidence, and benchmark summaries with provenance.

agentCLAWHUBUnverified

Polymarket FastScaler

Trade Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets using a magnitude-gated conviction-ladder strategy. Only fires when |1m BTC momentum| >= 0.10%, the magnitude threshold the strategy is built around. Position size scales with signal strength (3 conviction tiers). Reference template for gate-filtered BTC fast-market trading; the original performance claim was retracted (see below).

OpenClaw

View on ClawHub Homepage

Rank

Safety

Downloads

1.2k

Updated

Oct 11, 2026

Version

1.2.3

Source

CLAWHUB

About

What it does, and when to use it.

Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. 1.2K downloads reported by the source. Last updated 10/11/2026.

Avoid when

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Risk flags: missing_or_unavailable_contract, trust_data_unavailable, schema_references_missing

Public facts

Every fact links back to the source it came from.

Vendor: Clawhubvendor · observed Oct 11, 2026
Protocol compatibility: OpenClawcompatibility · observed Oct 11, 2026
Adoption signal: 1.2K downloadsadoption · observed Oct 11, 2026
Latest release: 1.2.3release · observed Aug 9, 2026
Handshake status: UNKNOWNsecurity

Install and run

Setup complexity: low.

clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-fast-scaler

Install using `clawhub skill install s17eez0vajry6hjb97y9mbtv2s85wekv:polymarket-fast-scaler` in an isolated environment before connecting it to live workloads.
No published capability contract is available yet, so validate auth and request/response behavior manually.
Review the upstream CLAWHUB listing at https://clawhub.ai/simmer/polymarket-fast-scaler before using production credentials.

Contract: missing

curl -s "https://www.xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-simmer-polymarket-fast-scaler/snapshot"

Documentation

CLAWHUB

146,305 characters of source documentation, loaded on request.

Extracted files

5 files captured from the source.

SKILL.md

---
name: polymarket-fast-scaler
description: Trade Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets using a magnitude-gated conviction-ladder strategy. Only fires when |1m BTC momentum| >= 0.10%, the magnitude threshold the strategy is built around. Position size scales with signal strength (3 conviction tiers). Reference template for gate-filtered BTC fast-market trading; the original performance claim was retracted (see below).
metadata:
  author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)
  version: "1.2.3"
  displayName: Polymarket FastScaler
  difficulty: advanced
---
# Polymarket FastScaler

Trade Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets with a conviction-ladder strategy. Only enters when Binance 1m momentum exceeds the 0.10% magnitude gate. Position size scales with signal strength across 3 tiers.

> 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

> **Polymarket only.** All trades execute on Polymarket with real USDC. Paper mode is the default.

> ⛔ **Performance claim retracted (2026-06-12).** An earlier version cited an "89.4% win rate / +5.04%" backtest. A look-ahead-enforced replay (Simmer skill-replay) found that backtest measured the 1m candle that *starts* at window-open, which only closes 60 seconds into the 5-minute window it is meant to predict. The signal the skill can actually act on at the decision point (the last complete 1m candle, i.e. the prior minute) shows **no measured edge**: roughly a coin flip before fees. Treat this skill as an **unvalidated reference template**, not a validated edge. Run paper mode and form your own view.

> ⚠️ **Strategy invariants.** `magnitude_gate_pct` defaults to 0.10%. Below it the gate admits more low-magnitude noise and fees dominate a larger share of trades. This is a design default, not a validated profit threshold (see the retraction above).

> ⚠️ **Risk monitoring does not apply to sub-15-minute markets.** Simmer's stop-loss and take-profit monitors check positions every 15 minutes — they will never fire on 5m markets before resolution. Size accordingly.

## Strategy

**Signal**: Binance 1m candle at window-open — `momentum = (close - open) / open × 100`

**Gate**: `|momentum| >= magnitude_gate_pct` (default 0.10%). Below = no trade.

**Side**: `momentum > 0 → YES`, `momentum < 0 → NO`. Pure direction — no divergence filter.

**Sizing (conviction ladder)**:
| Tier | |momentum| | Position |
|------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | 0.10% – 0.20% | $3 |
| 2 | 0.20% – 0.35% | $5 |
| 3 | ≥ 0.35% | $10 |

**Hold**: position held to expiry. No exit logic.

**Strategy thesis (unvalidated)**: the idea is that strong BTC momentum at window-open correlates with the resolution direction before the market re-prices, and that the 0.10% gate filters the noise zone. Replay testing did **not** confirm this for the signal available at the decision point (the prior complete 1m candle). Treat the thesis as untested.

**Backtest status (2026-06-12)**: the

_meta.json

{
  "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x",
  "slug": "polymarket-fast-scaler",
  "version": "1.2.3",
  "publishedAt": 1786258426541
}

DISCLAIMER.md

# Disclaimer

This skill is a **framework**, not a production trading system. Read this
in full before connecting it to a wallet with real funds.

## No financial advice

Nothing in this skill constitutes financial, investment, or trading
advice. The default strategy implemented here is a starting point, not a
tested edge. Suitability for any account size or risk tolerance is your
responsibility to assess.

## Default parameters are not validated

Default parameters are calibrated for testing the plumbing, not for live
profit. They have not been validated to produce positive returns under
current market conditions. Run paper mode for an extended period before
scaling beyond default position sizes.

## Automated trading carries irreversible risk

When this skill runs with `--live`, it places real on-chain orders.
On-chain trades cannot be recalled. Strategy errors, signal lag, market
regime shifts, and operator misconfiguration can produce losses
exceeding any specific position size.

## Risk monitoring may not apply to all market types

Stop-loss and take-profit monitors run on a fixed schedule. Markets that
resolve faster than the monitor cycle cannot be exited automatically.
Position sizing is the only risk control on these markets — set it
conservatively.

## Use of this skill is at your own risk

By installing and running this skill you agree that the authors are not
liable for any losses, direct or indirect, that arise from its use. This
applies regardless of skill provenance — official Simmer skills,
community skills, and skills imported from external repositories all
carry this same disclaimer.

## Where to learn more before going live

- The skill's own `SKILL.md` documents the strategy and parameters
- Your trading venue's documentation covers fee structure, order types,
  and resolution rules
- Simmer SDK documentation covers paper mode, dry-run flags, and
  position monitoring

NEXT.md

# NEXT — polymarket-fast-scaler

**Status**: B3 complete — live test passed. Published to ClawHub at v1.0.0.

B1 ✅ shipped | B2 ✅ paper validation passed (SIM-1997, PR #115) | B3 ✅ live test passed + published (SIM-1998)

## Live test results (2026-05-20 → 2026-05-22)

- 4 trades executed over 48h, all fills confirmed (exit_code=0)
- $12.00 total spend vs $10/day budget cap
- All trades Tier 1 ($3) with |momentum| 0.10–0.20%
- 2349 signals evaluated, no unexpected errors
- Budget cap respected per-day

## Strategy invariants (DO NOT change without re-running the backtest)

- **Side-picker**: direction only — up → YES, down → NO. No divergence filter.
- **Magnitude gate**: `|momentum| >= 0.10%`. A noise filter, not a validated edge. The original "89.4% win rate" claim was RETRACTED 2026-06-12 (look-ahead bias — see below).
- **Signal source**: Binance 1m candle at window-open (last complete 1m candle). Do NOT switch to 5m lookback without re-running the backtest.
- **Sizing table**: 3-tier conviction ladder. T1 $3 / T2 $5 / T3 $10. Tier thresholds: 0.10%/0.20%/0.35%.
- **Fee formula**: `fee = shares × 0.07 × p × (1-p)`. Crypto taker category.
- **Hold policy**: hold to expiry. No exit logic — results are binary.

## Backtest source — RETRACTED 2026-06-12 (look-ahead bias)

The SIM-3070 skill-replay calibration gate found the original backtest measured the
1m candle that *starts* at window-open (closes 60s into the window it predicts).
The live-actionable signal (prior complete candle) shows no measured edge (~49%,
coin flip). Writeup: `simmer/_dev/active/_skill-intelligence/pilot-reports/fast-scaler-calibration-gate.md`.

- Original evidence (now known look-ahead-biased): `simmer/_dev/completed/_fast-loop-rebuild/backtest_binance_ladder.md` (30d BTC fast-5m, 218 markets)
- Cohort profiling: `profile_winners.md` (ndjjwobaq, btcbeliver01 timeline analysis)
- Parent audit: SIM-1854 close-out comment (2026-05-18)

paper-validation-results.md

# polymarket-fast-scaler — Paper Validation Results (B2)

**Run period:** 2026-05-18 11:50 UTC → 2026-05-20 15:25 UTC (51.6 hours)  
**Total cycles:** 3,096 (one per minute)  
**Config:** magnitude gate 0.10% | T1=$3 / T2=$5 / T3=$10 | daily cap $30 | per-market cap $10  
**Analyzed by:** Cody / SIM-2008 → SIM-1997  

---

## Gate fire rate

| Window | Executed trades | Expected (±50%) | Result |
|--------|----------------|-----------------|--------|
| Day 1 (05/18 11:50 → 05/19 11:50) | **1** | 3.5 – 10.5 | ⚠️ Below (market condition — see note) |
| Day 2 (05/19 11:50 → 05/20 11:50) | **7** | 3.5 – 10.5 | ✅ PASS |
| Full run average (51.6h, 8 trades) | **3.7/day** | 3.5 – 10.5 | ⚠️ Dragged down by Day 1 |

**Day 1 anomaly:** 95.2% of cycles on 2026-05-18 returned `no_markets` — Polymarket was not publishing 5-minute BTC momentum windows that day (low-volatility Sunday; cross-checked against skip-reason breakdown). This is a market availability condition, not a skill defect. When markets were available (Day 2+), the gate fired exactly as the backtest predicted.

---

## Markets discovered

| Date | Cycles | `no_markets` | `below_magnitude_gate` | `wide_spread` |
|------|--------|-------------|----------------------|--------------|
| 2026-05-18 | 730 | 695 (95.2%) | 30 (4.1%) | 2 (0.3%) |
| 2026-05-19 | 1,440 | 80 (5.6%) | 1,099 (76.3%) | 137 (9.5%) |
| 2026-05-20 | 927 | 0 (0%) | 712 (76.8%) | 85 (9.2%) |

Day 2 onward: skill correctly discovers BTC 5m windows from Polymarket and applies gate logic.

---

## Tier distribution (8 executed trades)

| Tier | Threshold | Position size | Trades | % | Total spent |
|------|-----------|--------------|--------|---|-------------|
| T1 | 0.10% ≤ \|m\| < 0.20% | $3.00 | 7 | 87.5% | $21.00 |
| T2 | 0.20% ≤ \|m\| < 0.35% | $5.00 | 1 | 12.5% | $5.00 |
| T3 | \|m\| ≥ 0.35% | $10.00 | 0 | — | — |

Observed momentum values:
- T1 examples: 0.1036%, 0.1321%, 0.1200%, 0.1040%, 0.1251%, 0.1100%, 0.1715%
- T2 example: 0.2852%

All amounts match tier thresholds exactly. **Tier sizing: PASS ✅**

---

## Budget caps

**Daily budget cap ($30/day):**
- 2026-05-18: $0.00 ✅
- 2026-05-19: $18.00 ✅
- 2026-05-20: $8.00 ✅

**Per-market cap ($10 max):**
- Max single trade observed: $5.00
- Trades over $10: 0 ✅

---

## Dedup

9 cycles had `trades_attempted=1, trades_executed=0` — the skill signaled a trade but the dedup layer blocked it. These occur on consecutive-minute windows where the same market was already targeted. No double-entry on the same market window was observed in the executed trades. **Dedup: PASS ✅**

---

## Auto-redeem

`.last_auto_redeem` file present, most recent timestamp: **2026-05-20 15:18 UTC**. The 10-minute cooldown rate-limiter is working. Auto-redeem events are not individually logged in the JSONL (they happen inside the cycle, pre-trade), but the cooldown file confirms they fired. **Auto-redeem: PASS ✅**

---

## GTC cleanup

`ORDER_TYPE=GTC` is active. GTC cancellations are executed at cycle start (

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